A 7-9 week brings my season record to 92-79 (54 percent, +$789). 55 percent is the goal and the line at which a nice profit is made, so last week was certainly disappointing after a strong October run. Visit OddsShark.com for trends throughout the week.
Week 11 college football picks: Stanford challenges Oregon, Baylor rolls
Above, SB Nation’s Dan Rubenstein picks the week’s five biggest games. Below, Bud Elliott selects the week’s best wagers from the entire college football menu.
Jonathan Daniel
As usual, I write on the games involving ranked teams, and will discuss any other games in the comments.
- Oklahoma cannot get out of its own way on offense. When picking against Baylor, I need the opposing offense to have minimal unforced errors. Oklahoma is basically the opposite of that. I think the Bears will roll and that Oklahoma will not have enough pass rush.
- Stanford and double digits at home? The offense scares me in a way that makes me think I'll lose my money. But the defense and the special teams are awesome. If Marcus Mariota has a Heisman night, I'll lose. But Stanford's defense is legit.
- Arizona State is both under- and overrated. Overrated because they beat Wisconsin literally on a bad call that prevented the Badgers from kicking the field goal to win a game. Underrated because they're the third-best team in the Pac-12 and teams like UCLA and Washington have received the hype this year.
- Louisville laying four touchdowns at UConn? What does Louisville have to play for now that it lost at home to UCF? I'll fade here and take the Huskies.
- Missouri feels primed for a letdown at Kentucky, and I am aware how bad Kentucky is. This seems like Vegas knows something and is begging for Missouri money. I'll take the Wildcats.
- Auburn is better than I thought, but this feels like another trap game at Tennessee. The Volunteers at home have been much better than on the road. I'll go with Big Orange.
- Wake Forest losing Michael Campanaro is a very big deal. Noles big.
- Somehow, Texas Tech is still ranked. I cashed in against them in recent weeks, and the Red Raiders are just nothing special. Kansas State's ball control offense springs the upset.
- Mississippi State does a good job of stopping the run and running the football. I look for the Bulldogs to hang tough for a half against Texas A&M.
- Virginia Tech's defense is just as good as Florida State's. Miami does not have Duke Johnson. I look for the Hokies to get back in the Coastal Division race.
- UCF is a lot better than Houston, and is playing for a BCS bid. Knights roll. I love Central Florida's offensive balance.
- UCLA's offense has a lot of trouble with its offensive line, and Brett Hundley is overrated. Arizona in the desert pulls the very slight upset.
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