Arizona State vs. Texas Tech, 2013 Holiday Bowl: Red Raiders upset No. 14 ASU

Offensive touchdown scored by Oregon in the Alamo Bowl. The Ducks did gain 469 yards (6.9 per play) on Texas, but the Longhorns were able to limit damage on third downs (4-for-12), and special teams gave Oregon long fields from which to work all night despite six Texas three-and-outs -- nine of 11 Oregon drives began at the Ducks’ 25 or further back.

Texas bent but rarely broke and did what a defense has to do to give itself a chance against the Oregon offense. Unfortunately…

Box Score Hero: Texas Tech quarterback Davis Webb: 403 yards and four touchdowns on 28-of-41 passing.

Texas Tech wide receiver Jace Amaro: eight receptions for 112 yards.

Thanks to Under Armour, Texas Tech wore 13,729,421 uniform combinations this year. For the Holiday Bowl against Arizona State, they were given their 13,729,422nd:

PREVIOUSLY, in Texas Tech uniforms:

Ole Miss vs. Georgia Tech

Ole Miss, loaded with superstar freshmen like Tunsil, is a team to keep in an eye on in the future. For now, they’re light on NFL prospects.

The likelihood of points is high when the Arizona State Sun Devils take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Holiday Bowl. Both teams averaged over 35 points per game this season, and we could very easily be in for another Holiday Bowl shootout.

The two teams can fill up a box score, but they finished the regular season in drastically different fashions. Arizona State fell short in the Pac-12 title game, but they won seven straight games before that to clinch the Pac-12 South. Texas Tech, meanwhile, started the season hot with seven straight wins, but they stumbled badly in the second half of the season with five consecutive losses against the meat of their Big 12 schedule.

Ninety-one percent.

The F/+ win probability model is pretty sound. Depending on your per-unit advantages (offense vs. defense) and the likely pace of a given game, it projects a score and win probability. During the regular season, I feel pretty comfortable with the projections. If a team is projected to have a 91 percent chance of winning a given game, and if that team is projected to win by more than three touchdowns ... well, they’re probably going to win.

The Sun Devils are just 1-4 ATS in their last five bowls, but the favorite is 11-4 against-the-spread in the last 15 Holiday Bowls. The last five games have stayed UNDER the total (currently 70 in college football odds at Bovada) but the computer is projecting 80 (!) points in this matchup.

Meanwhile, Texas Tech has won six of its last seven bowl games straight-up, but is 1-6 against-the-spread, giving hope to Red Raider backers who may see the point spread climb higher before kickoff.

One thing that will help Arizona State’s offense is that their opponent in the Holiday Bowl, Texas Tech, does not possess the strongest defense. They gave up nearly 4.5 yards per carry this season, so the Sun Devils should be able to run the ball even without Grice.

• Bowl season TV schedule, with scores and recaps along the way

Arizona State and Texas Tech were polar opposites in 2013. The Sun Devils dropped two of their first five games, and if it weren’t for the referees botching the final play against Wisconsin, they would’ve been below .500 a week into October. Texas Tech, on the other hand, started the year 7-0.

Todd Graham’s boys turned the season around in a hurry, though, winning seven games in a row to clinch the Pac-12 South title. They would end up losing to Stanford in the conference title game, but optimism was still abound in Tempe.

Former Alabama offensive coordinator Jim McElwain has taken Colorado State bowling for the first time since 2008, going 7-6 and finishing third in the Mountain division of the Mountain West. Out of those seven wins, none came against teams that finished with a winning record, but the Rams have a legitimate star in running back Kapri Bibbs. The sophomore led the nation with 28 touchdown runs this season on fewer than 20 carries per game, and has set school records in rushing touchdowns, total touchdowns and points scored.

Carr is one of the very best quarterbacks in the country, passing for 48 touchdowns and nearly 5,000 yards on the season. The Bulldogs started the year 10-0, with notable wins over Rutgers, Boise State and San Diego State before a dramatic Friday night loss to San Jose State. Fresno State still won the conference, defeating Utah State in the conference title game.

Michigan started the season 4-0, with tight wins over suspect opponents like Akron and Connecticut balancing out a win over a ranked Notre Dame. A four-overtime loss to Penn State ruined the team’s perfect record, and Michigan would end up losing to Michigan State, Nebraska, Iowa and Ohio State. The Wolverines will hope to get more consistent play on both sides of the ball against Kansas State.

Well, this isn’t exactly where either of these teams wanted to end up, is it? This is one of those situations where you have to decide whether you want to judge a bowl by its reputation or its matchup, because this is certainly a fun matchup.