2013 Houston football’s 10 things to know: A promising mess

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I’ve probably written it a thousand times by now: No matter how well-researched and logical you are in your decision-making process, changing coaches is a complete and total crapshoot. Sometimes a good-looking choice is done in by a few injuries and a scorned booster. Sometimes a hire that ignited disapproving fans ends up maneuvering through a wonderful tenure.

Sometimes a new hire gets off on the wrong foot and never recovers. When Southern Miss upset Houston in the 2011 Conference USA title game, the matchup pitted two schools that would both soon be looking for a new head coach. It’s a tenet of mid-major life: The better a hire you make, the sooner you’ll be making another one. Southern Miss lost Larry Fedora to North Carolina, while Houston’s Kevin Sumlin went down the road to Texas A&M.

The two schools took completely different paths to finding a replacement -- Southern Miss went after the wise old career assistant (South Carolina’s Ellis Johnson), and Houston went with Sumlin’s receivers/tight ends/special teams coach, Tony Levine. Southern Miss started off terribly and never recovered, plummeting, incredibly, from 12-2 to 0-12.

Houston, meanwhile, had its own issues. The Cougars lost their first game of 2012 to FBS newcomer Texas State (and they didn’t just lose, they lost by 17 at home) and in about the clearest possible sign of instability, Levine fired his offensive coordinator the next week. The offense was up and down thereafter, and three weeks into the season, Houston was 0-3, having just lost by 31 points at UCLA. As with Ellis Johnson’s tenure, it looked like the Levine era could come to a quick, quiet ending. But to their credit, his Cougars rallied. Despite key injuries and absurd youth, Houston won five of its last nine games, with a three-point loss at Marshall keeping the Cougars from surging for a bowl bid.

Levine has weathered some seriously choppy waters thus far, and while he’s not yet to shore, his journey is starting to look a lot more pleasant than it was about 11 months ago.

Houston was nothing if not volatile in 2012, alternating between impressive and awful performances. The Cougars looked like they were at a 2011 level in beating Rice, North Texas and UAB, then turned the ball over an incredible nine times in losing by 30 to a scuffling SMU squad. (Cougar quarterbacks threw six touchdown passes in that game: three to each team.) The offense looked solid against one team and non-existent the next. The offense was excellent one week, distinctly below average the next.

The thing about sophomores, though, is that they become juniors. And then they become seniors. Early pain often results in prowess. At least, that’s what Houston hopes.

Give Houston credit for one thing: The Cougars were never average. They were more than a touchdown worse than average early, rallied to a distinctly above-average level in early October, then firmly established themselves back on the other side of the grid. For the season, Houston’s adjusted scoring margin was a couple of points below average, but in only two games did the Cougars play that close to average. Most of the time they were either well above or well below.

In 2010, following two seasons as Houston’s offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, Dana Holgorsen left Houston to become Mike Gundy’s offensive coordinator at Oklahoma State. Apparently it was a trade, however; three years later, the CTBNL (Coach To Be Named Later) in the deal was finally named. Doug Meachem, Gundy’s former tight ends and inside receivers coach, is now Houston’s offensive coordinator. Meachem was part of the Gundy era from the beginning in 2005, helping to establish one of the country’s best plug-and-play offenses, one that finds brutal efficiency and exhausting pace no matter what personnel comes and goes in a given season.

Meachem’s first goal in 2013 has to be teaching Houston how not to be its own worst enemy. The Cougars threw 20 interceptions in 2012 (and it only felt like they all came against SMU) and somehow lost 15 of 19 fumbles. Ninety-six Houston passes were defensed in some manner, meaning Houston quarterbacks were frequently throwing to rather well-covered receivers. And with points on the line, the Cougars routinely faltered, ranking 105th in Redzone S&P+ and 100th in points per trip inside the opponent’s 20. Offense basically comes down to creating opportunities and converting them. When Houston managed to not stumble in the former, it stumbled in the latter.

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

In his first three games of the season, David Piland completed 54 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and six interceptions.

In his next three games, he completed 68 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and three interceptions.

In his next four games, he completed 47 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and three interceptions.

Jones is gone, and Piland appears to have held off sophomore Bram Kohlhausen, former Kansas State Wildcat Billy Cosh, and highly touted true freshman John O’Korn to win the starting job to start the season. But O’Korn played well enough to secure the backup role, and if Piland starts the 2013 season as he finished his 2012 campaign, one has to figure Levine might start to lean toward the young guy.

Piland’s supporting cast at the skill positions is both young and loaded with interesting potential. Deontay Greenberry, the No. 49 recruit in the class of 2012 according to Rivals.com, was the jewel of Levine’s first recruiting class and held his own as a true freshman and No. 2 receiver; his per-target numbers were mediocre at best, but a) for most, the freshman year is just about survival, and b) he had his moments: six catches for 94 amid the SMU interception-fest, three catches for 97 yards in the season finale versus Tulane. Three of last year’s top five targets are gone, but understudies like Larry McDuffey (also a sophomore) and Shane Ros (the rare senior) put up impressive numbers in backup roles. And if Markeith Ambles ever makes it to campus (any…day…now…), that will give Houston two former blue-chippers in the receiving corps. No other AAC school can say that.

Meanwhile, the ceilings appear high for both sophomore running backs Kenneth Farrow and Ryan Jackson. Farrow was actually rather consistent for a freshman, while Jackson was less consistent and more explosive. Converted defensive back Kent Brooks joined the mix this offseason, too, and all three will be running behind one of the most experienced lines in the country. It returns six players with starting experience (92 career starts, including 58 from four seniors, though two-year starting guard Ty Cloud has been hobbled and inactive in fall camp).

It might take another year for all of these pieces to peak, but if/when they do, the offense could improve dramatically in a short amount of time.

Without digging into pace- and opponent adjustments, you could get a far less than precise view of Houston’s strengths and weaknesses. The Cougars, one of the original tempo-pushers, averaged 82 plays per game last year, one of the nation’s higher totals. Because of both that and the Cougars’ conference of residence (Conference USA was a mighty up-tempo league in 2012), opponents ran even MORE plays (86 per game). As a result, Houston ranked 15th in yards per game and 118th in yards allowed per game.

It’s easy to assume, then, the defense was the problem. But that just wasn’t the case. Taking into account both pace and opponent, Houston’s offense ranked 83rd in Off. F/+; its defense ranked a decent (though obviously not spectacular) 66th in Def. F/+. The defense was better than the offense, especially when you consider that when a bad offense is moving quickly, that often simply means it’s failing quickly and hanging its defense out to dry. Houston’s D ranked 45th in first-quarter S&P+ and 103rd in fourth-quarter S&P+. Injuries (and the consequent lack of depth) and shuffling played a role in that, but so did a failing offense.

Ten Houston linemen and nine defensive backs logged at least 5.0 tackles last season; only six of the combined 19 played in all 12 games last year. The linebacking corps was stable, almost to a fault (last year’s starters combined for 93 percent of the unit’s tackles, and now two of the three are gone), but the front and the back of the defense were shuffling all season. That takes its toll.

But the Cougars’ secondary still won’t lack for aggression without Hayden. Corners Zach McMillian and Thomas Bates combined for 21 passes defensed, sophomore safety Trevon Stewart made a ton of plays considering his youth, and others like sophomore safety Adrian McDonald, senior safety (and Texas A&M transfer) Colton Valencia, some JUCO transfers and three-star redshirt freshman should ensure that Houston’s two-deep isn’t that much worse off than last year’s. And that’s a good thing, since the line will bee needing help once again.

A 10-4 record with a No. 35 F/+ ranking, followed by 5-7 and 62nd. A 13-1 record and No. 17 ranking, followed by 5-7 and 80th. Houston hasn’t been boring recently; fortunes aren’t supposed to change (and change again) that rapidly for most schools, but most schools aren’t Houston. And I’ve got to say, with the schedule above, it’s possible that Houston’s fortunes shift dramatically yet again.

Let’s say that Houston ranks between about 45th and 50th this year. That might be a bit optimistic considering the Cougars are still pretty young in spots, but their average performance over the last five years has been 48th (even if they’ve only once come close to that average in a given season). But against Houston’s schedule, a top-50 team could win between about seven and 10 games. A top-40 team could win between about nine and 11.

Tony Levine has rather quickly put together an athletic, exciting roster that has solid talent at nearly every level (not sure about the defensive line), and a lot of sophomores and juniors now have the experience of juniors and seniors after last season’s trials. Levine hasn’t yet proven he can manage and maximize the talent at his disposal, but after just one year he hasn’t proven he can’t either. Even with an offense that might still be a year away from totally clicking, it’s a big year and a big opportunity for the Cougars; will they be ready?

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