1. Auburn’s most dangerous receiver is back. Will that restore balance?
How’s Auburn supposed to score on Alabama?
One key player and a few playcall tweaks will give the No. 15 Tigers a chance to put up points on what might once again be the country’s scariest defense. (7:45 p.m. ET, Saturday, ESPN.)
by Bill Connelly
Sometimes fate doesn’t cooperate. When Auburn survived Ole Miss on November 1, we were zeroing in on the Biggest Iron Bowl Since the Last One, with a one-loss Auburn and a one-loss Alabama facing off for the state, the SEC West, the SEC, and the nation.
Alas, Auburn couldn’t keep up its end. The Tigers suffered a shocking upset to Texas A&M, then got whacked by Georgia. So, we must suffer through a game that is only the biggest football rivalry in the country. Only one of the two teams is a title contender. How boring. Poor us.
The last four Iron Bowls have resulted in two blowout wins for Alabama and two forever-memorable Auburn wins. If you had to predict, you might lean toward the former. No. 15 Auburn’s offense will have to rebound for the latter to become feasible.
Auburn’s offense has been balanced, capable of running at will or making big pass plays if defenses overcompensate. The Tigers rank first in Passing S&P+ and second in Passing Downs S&P+. Even though they are a run-first operation (77 percent run on standard downs, ninth-highest in the country), they can and will throw.
At least, they could and would. When Duke Williams sprained his MCL against Texas A&M, the passing game hit some bumps. Nick Marshall was 4-for-4 for 30 yards until Williams got hurt. On Marshall's next 12 pass attempts against A&M, he completed five of 10 for 40 yards and was sacked twice. He rebounded to complete a couple of fourth-quarter bombs, but the consistency Marshall had established in his previous five games -- 62 percent completion rate, 14.3 yards per completion, 10 touchdowns, three picks -- was gone.
Against Georgia and Samford, Marshall completed 54 percent with one score and two picks. Including sacks, he averaged 4.9 yards per attempt vs. Georgia. The balance was gone.
Williams will play against No. 1 Alabama. (Ricardo Louis, who missed the Samford game, is back as well.) This is tremendous news. Williams is Auburn's best, biggest passing-downs target; he has caught 22 of 31 passes for 355 yards and four scores on such downs. Beyond that, Williams might help Auburn avoid passing downs.
Even by Alabama’s ridiculous standards, the Crimson Tide run defense is fantastic. They rank first in Rushing S&P+ and first in Standard Downs S&P+, and even removing sacks, opponents are averaging 3.6 yards per carry. Bama hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown since October 11.
Mississippi State's Dak Prescott and Josh Robinson gained 123 yards in 33 carries (3.7 per carry); LSU's running backs gained 137 in 41 (3.3). You aren't going to rely on your ground game alone to set up scores against a disciplined Alabama front seven. You have to be able to throw. Alabama has allowed eight touchdowns in its last five games -- three of eight possessions began in Alabama territory, and 64 percent of the yardage on those drives came through the air.
While we verge on overstating Alabama's weaknesses in pass defense (the Tide rank 12th in Passing S&P+ and 15th in Passing Downs S&P+), passing is still the path of least resistance. And when all options are healthy, Auburn's receiving corps can overload you with size and play-making ability. Williams (6'2, 216), Sammie Coates (6'2, 201), Louis (6'2, 212), and Quan Bray (a respective runt at 5'10, 195) have combined for 111 catches, 1,643 yards, 73 first downs, and 12 scores.
Auburn isn’t going to throw 60 times, but the Tigers need to pull Alabama defenders off of the line whenever possible. A whopping 25.8 percent of rushes against Alabama stop at or behind the line of scrimmage, and while the Tide are unimpressive in short-yardage situations (they rank 78th in Power Success Rate), they barely face any of those. You’re dealing with third-and-8, not third-and-2.
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2. How Auburn can modify its offense for Alabama
by Ian Boyd
While Auburn’s passing rankings are gaudy, the nature of the Gus Malzahn offense calls for play action to strike when an opponent loads up to stop the run. This isn’t a unit that can call three/five-step dropback patterns and pick an opponent apart, especially an opponent like the Crimson Tide.
The only problem with relying on play-action is that Alabama might not need to load the box in order to handle the 2014 iteration of the War Eagle hurry-up attack. Nick Saban will play cover 3 and drop a safety down the hash just before the snap, alternating with quarters and relying on strong safety Landon Collins’ range to stop the run.
Last year, Auburn was able to handle this with its power and zone inside running combo. This year, Auburn has been slowed due to two problems.
The first has been a marginal decline across the OL from losing left guard Alex Kozan to injury and left tackle Greg Robinson to the NFL Draft. Replacements Shon Coleman and Chad Slade, while hardly bums, haven't been able to dominate teams with premier DL talent, like Georgia. To expect them to consistently win matchups against A'Shawn Robinson, Brandon Ivory, and Jarran Reed would be asking for a defeat.
The next problem is executing the edge blocks against Jonathan Allen, Xzavier Dickson, and Denzel Devall without departed fullback Jay Prosch. Auburn has relied on TE C.J. Uzomah, a 6'5, 265-pound player who's been solid when blocking on perimeter screens, but struggles to root out linemen due to his height. At only 6', Prosch had leverage to get low and drive those players outta the way.
Without Prosch’s phenomenal blocking or the cave-in effect of Robinson and Kozan on the left side, the Auburn running game simply isn’t as dominant as in 2013, when it kept the Tigers in the Bama game long enough for the POP pass and kick-six plays that stole the win.
To overcome, expect Auburn to rely on motion packages and schemes that get blockers on the perimeter, rather than trying to out-muscle Alabama up front. One way to do this is with buck sweep. It was a big part of Malzahn’s offense in the past, before he began to emphasize zone read in order to suit Marshall.
The buck sweep allows Uzomah to pin a defensive end inside, rather than try to blow somebody up. The guards can wrap around and pick off DBs and LBs in space. While Uzomah might not be able to drive Devall or Allen off the ball, his length should be useful for walling them off.
Auburn can run this by motioning around different players and moving at fast tempo, creating confusion. That can lead to assignment errors and fatigued big men, which would then allow Auburn to start running inside.
Another play that Malzahn has been calling more has been a spread-out version of zone read. It still gives Marshall a lead blocker on the edge:
They run what appears to be a backside sweeper across the formation. But this player becomes a lead blocker if Marshall keeps the ball and attacks the edge. Zone read is integral, because Auburn’s OL are very good at getting full coverage on opposing DL, preventing penetration, and working up to the linebackers.
If the Tigers can find ways like this to run zone read that don't rely on winning one-on-one battles with Alabama's run defenders, they have a chance to spring Marshall or Cameron Artis-Payne for big runs.
Without the latter component, Malzahn will have to get extra creative to pull out his third Iron Bowl win.
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