New College Football Playoff and bowl projections: Baylor, not TCU, joins top

Did you know we’re only four weekends away from the first-ever College Football Playoff field being finalized? The season’s almost over. And while it’ll be fun and all to see the Playoff in action, let’s not lose sight of how fun this stretch race is gonna be.

Anyway, let’s get to some projectin’. If you don’t like anything here, please leave a comment, and someone will maybe be with you shortly. As always, this is a guess on how this all turns out once committees and bowls and conferences get done ordering things, not a personal ranking of how cool or dumb your team is.

College Football Playoff

First, weekly appreciation to the Seminoles for continuing to shamble toward 13-0, no matter how flawed they look in the process. Get past Miami, Boston College, Florida, and likely Duke, and they’re in, with the relatively close Sugar Bowl as the No. 1 seed’s reward.

Alabama and Oregon remain here, though Saturday raises doubts about both. The Tide have to bounce back from late-night overtime at hammer-swinging LSU in time to beat hammer-swinging Mississippi State next weekend*, and that’s after MSU enjoying an afternoon FCS walkthrough. The Ducks suffered injuries and likewise beat a physical team, Utah in Salt Lake City, but at least get to sort of cruise through a bye week and two bad conference teams before the Pac-12 Championship.

Yep, Baylor as the No. 4 over TCU, despite TCU surely ranking ahead of Baylor this week after blowing out Kansas State. The Bears, who destroyed Oklahoma in Norman, hold two trump cards over the Frogs, both of which the committee has stated will be important: a head-to-head win over TCU and a potential Big 12 championship as a result of that head-to-head win [update: the committee essentially announces it would consider both Baylor and TCU as conference champs, in this scenario, which means it would largely come down to head-to-head vs. strength of schedule; since the committee seems more likely to side with concrete head-to-head evidence over abstract strength-of-schedule evidence, I’ll stick with Baylor for now]. If both teams finish with the same 11-1 record, which is becoming sort of likely, TCU would have the schedule strength advantage, but two advantages are more than one, in my opinion. That’s assuming what the committee’s told us about itself holds true.

The rest of the New Year’s Six

Notre Dame is out after an unsightly loss to the Sun Devils, who barge their way in. Though I’d penciled in ASU as winning this game, the lopsided final was “convincing” (which seems to be the committee jargon for BEATDOWN) enough to alter things.

Colorado State is out as the designated non-power team. Even if CSU finishes 11-1, it can’t get in unless the Broncos drop another game, since Boise beat the Rams earlier in the year -- the non-power spot can only go to a conference champion. The Broncos have a much tougher road ahead, but I’m flipping the Utah State season finale in Boise’s favor for now after Wyoming actually outgained the depleted USU in a weird Friday night Aggies win. (It would be tidier to put unbeaten and flamethrowing Marshall in, but the committee’s preferences weigh heavily against a team that tramples a bad schedule.)

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The ACC is guaranteed a spot in the Orange Bowl, and a Duke team on course for 11-2 should start to rank well any day now. The Orange will likely get one top-10 team, though, due to its other conference ties. After that, the committee pairs teams based on geography and matchups.

Everything else

As always, bowl pecking orders are not based on conference standings. Those numbers in the right column just note which bowls pick in which order.

* Team filling another conference’s unused slot.

Minor rearrangements throughout, with ASU’s ascent giving the whole Pac-12 a little more room to spread out in the regular-folk bowls. The toughest question might be where to put the Georgia Tech-Clemson winner, which could finish with 10 wins but has to compete against ACC-ish Notre Dame for a worthy bowl spot. The Tigers or Jackets could certainly still make the New Year’s group.

Leaving us this week are Northwestern, the loser of the annual Worst Game With The Worst Ending, the Northwestern-Michigan classic; and Oregon State, which is bad.

Joining us are Texas State, with other conferences combining to create a convenient spot; and Cal, due to reckless capriciousness.

Yes, South Carolina is still here for old times’ sake. And yes, it’s absurd that a potentially 10-2 Georgia Southern likely can’t go bowling in its first FBS year, thanks to NCAA rules.