The best college football stats of Hate Week, from the Iron Bowl to everywhere else
Rivalry week always meets the hype. Of 61 FBS games, 26 were decided by eight or fewer points. One of two remaining undefeated teams lost, the other thought about it, and Mississippi State was knocked out of the Playoff hunt. Let’s look at the key numbers from the key weekend.
Stanford’s season has been marred by blown opportunities. As late as a couple of weeks ago, the Cardinal ranked in the 120s in terms of points per scoring opportunity, and despite another outstanding defense, they stood at 5-5 with three three-point losses.
Last week, they turned opportunities into points in a 38-17 Big Game win over Cal. And on Saturday, Stanford headed down to Pasadena and wrecked UCLA's New Year's plans. They shut down Brett Hundley, and in five scoring opportunities (not including an end-of-game drive), they scored four touchdowns and kicked a field goal. Kevin Hogan completed 16 of 19 passes for 234 yards, and if this offense had shown up all year, Stanford would be 10-2.
Offense showed up too late for the Cardinal, but it came just in time for Arizona. Stanford's win meant the Arizona-ASU winner would be the Pac-12 South champion. And in a game that featured 11 sacks (two of which resulted in fumble return touchdowns), Arizona's offense was able to keep moving forward better than ASU's. Nick Wilson ran for 178 yards and three scores, and while quarterback Anu Solomon was sacked four times, he also completed 15 of 21 passes for 208 yards and hit Samajie Grant for two scores.
Two weeks ago, Arizona had a two percent chance of winning the South. But the Wildcats pulled off two wins over Utah (win probability two weeks ago: 35 percent) and Arizona State (39 percent), and combined with Stanford’s unlikely win over UCLA (23 percent two weeks ago), that did the deed. And now Arizona’s one win (over a team it has already beaten!) from the Pac-12 title.
And *cough* for the record, I was just trying to fit in with the crowd here. Honest. I’m a conformist.
LOL RT @Adam_Jacobi: LOL RT @edsbs: LOL RT @thekeyplay: LOL RT @Mengus22 LOL RT @schadjoe: Rich Rod is strong leading candidate at Arizona
— Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) November 21, 2011 4
Missouri closes deals. For two straight years, Missouri has entered November needing to win four straight to win the SEC East. They have not lost since October 11, when Georgia romped to a 34-0 win. At that point, the East title wasn’t a realistic goal. But when Georgia suffered a baffling upset against Florida, that opened the door.
Mizzou also closes games. In the last nine minutes of last year's regular season finale against Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M, the Tigers outgained the Aggies, 112-1. In the last 15 minutes against Arkansas on Friday, Mizzou outgained the Hogs, 195-47, and scored 15 points to win, 21-14.
On paper, this is maybe the fifth best Missouri team of the last eight seasons. The Tigers are inconsistent on offense (though that unit has improved immensely in the last three games), and special teams have been mistake-prone over the past three weeks. But in a shaky SEC East that featured teams too disappointing (South Carolina, Florida), young (Kentucky, Tennessee), or strange (Georgia) to seize the conference title bid, the Tigers hunkered down. Having what might be the nastiest defensive line in the country didn’t hurt, but as was the case on Friday, the offense made every play it needed to make.
6
Coach hiring and firing is a strange dance. Tim Beckman has given no particular indication that he is going to lead Illinois to incredible heights, but after an awful first season -- the Illini went 2-10, and Beckman was maligned for sending assistants to Happy Valley to recruit Penn State players in the wake of the Nittany Lions’ epic NCAA punishment -- Illinois improved to 4-8 in 2013, then 6-6 in 2014. The fanbase is not abuzz with excitement, and one assumes Beckman will be gone if his team regresses in 2015, but a four-game improvement in two years is relatively impressive, even if the product on the field isn’t.
(And this says nothing of Nebraska firing Bo Pelini after seven consecutive seasons of nine or more wins. You better have a candidate in mind, and you better know he’s going to say yes, NU.)
6
Following a 24-19 color-by-numbers win over Florida, Florida State has now won six of 12 games by one possession. This is not unheard of; in 2010, Auburn won six such games in the regular season, then a seventh in the BCS title. In 2013, Auburn again went 6-0 in these games before barely falling to FSU in the championship.
Granted, Auburn faced better competition; the ‘Noles have yet to beat a team ranked in the F/+ top 15. (They’ll face one on Saturday in the ACC title game, and if they win, they’ll face up to two more in the Playoff.) But this high-wire act has been nearly unprecedented. We’ll see if they can continue as the competition improves.
8.6
Baylor has had a major opportunity to score style points over the last two weeks, and the Bears have failed. Things were trending in the right direction for BU’s Playoff case following the Bears’ 48-14 destruction of Oklahoma and TCU’s near-loss to Kansas. But after TCU pasted Texas by 38 points (yes, the yardage margin suggested a closer game), Baylor allowed a stunning 712 yards to Texas Tech; the Bears survived, 48-46, thanks in part to three Tech fumbles in Baylor territory, but if they were behind TCU and Ohio State in the Playoff rankings before this week, they will still be there after.
Two games is not necessarily a trend, but following the Week 12 bye week, the Baylor defense has been abysmal. After never allowing more than 5.6 yards per play in any of their first 10 games (they held TCU to 5.5, WVU to 5.4, and Oklahoma to 5.2), the Bears allowed 5.8 per play in a 49-28 win over Oklahoma State, then allowed 8.6 on Saturday in Arlington. Tech’s Pat Mahomes completed 30 of 56 passes for 598 yards and six touchdowns and was sacked just once by Baylor’s once-fearsome defensive line.
This was a bad look, Baylor. Now you probably have to beat Kansas State and hope for two upsets among the five teams likely still above you: Alabama (vs. Missouri), Oregon (vs. Arizona), Florida State (vs. Georgia Tech), TCU (vs. Iowa State), and Ohio State (vs. Wisconsin). Possible? Certainly. Probable? Not so much.
Baylor wasn’t alone in the “disappointing defensive performances” department.
Granted, Ole Miss has a much better offense than Texas Tech, but Mississippi State also allowed 8.6 yards per play to the Rebels, and it cost them a spot in the Playoff.
MSU had allowed just 5.3 yards per play to Alabama two weeks earlier and had allowed just 4.6 per play over the previous four games. But against Ole Miss, the Bulldogs allowed gains of 91 yards (a Jaylen Walton run), 83 yards (a pass to tight end Evan Engram), 41 yards (Jordan Wilkins run), 31 yards (pass to Cody Core) and 30 yards (pass to Vince Sanders). Ole Miss was in no way efficient -- Bo Wallace completed 13 of 30 passes, and the Rebels went three-and-out five times -- but when you're putting together plays of that magnitude, nothing else matters. Ole Miss won, 31-17.
Barely more than a month ago, Ole Miss and Mississippi State were the story of the season, putting together title runs at schools where that doesn’t tend to happen. Both came up short and must settle for simply having awesome seasons (and trying to hold onto their head coaches as poachers hover).
In Tuscaloosa, title dreams survive because Alabama did what MSU could not: match good offense with even better offense. After a first-play gaffe that handed Alabama a turnover and short-field touchdown, Auburn's offense caught fire. The Tigers gained at least 30 yards on nine consecutive drives, and scored points on eight of them to take a 36-27 lead late in the third quarter. But Blake Sims hit Amari Cooper on a picture perfect 75-yard bomb to get the Tide to within two, and the Alabama defense finally stiffened, picking off a pass, forcing a three-and-out, and forcing a turnover on downs in Bama territory.
Alabama held Auburn to field goals early, then scored on its final five possessions to pull off a 55-44 win that was exciting overall and stunning in its offensive proficiency.
Remember last year, when we talked about how Auburn’s offense did so well against Alabama? In Iron Bowl 2013, the Tigers scored 28 offensive points and averaged 5.8 yards per play. On Saturday in Tuscaloosa, Auburn averaged 7.0 yards per play and scored 44 offensive points ... and lost.
15
Either Georgia or Georgia Tech could have put its rivalry game away at any point if it didn’t keep blowing scoring chances. The teams combined to create 15 scoring opportunities (first downs inside the 40) -- seven for Georgia, eight for Tech -- and came away with points on just seven of them.
Georgia turned the ball over three times and settled for two field goals (one blocked) and averaged 2.4 points per opportunity. Tech scored four touchdowns but also had a field goal blocked and lost two fumbles, one that was returned for a touchdown and one that gave Georgia a chance to take a late lead.
But the last two Tech opportunities mattered the most. Georgia took the lead with 18 seconds left in regulation, but Justin Thomas was able to break off a 21-yard run and get out of bounds with four seconds left to give kicker Harrison Butker a chance at a 53-yard field goal. He made it. In overtime, Tech scored a touchdown in five plays, and D.J. White picked off a Hutson Mason pass to end the game.
This was destined to be a “we gave away the game” heart-breaker for whoever lost; that ends up with the team in Athens.
22
Everett Golson is responsible for 22 turnovers this year. 85 FBS teams have 21 or fewer turnovers.
— JJ Stankevitz (@JJStankevitz) November 30, 2014 That's ... a lot of turnovers. He committed two more on Saturday against USC, each around midfield, each setting up easy USC touchdowns. He completed seven of 18 passes for 75 yards, a pick, and three sacks, and he lost a fumble and got yanked in favor of Malik Zaire.
It’s easy to forget that Golson is a sophomore, but while he carried the Irish offense for the first two months of the season, he lost the plot. And Zaire was good enough in backup duty (9-for-20 for 170 yards and no turnovers) in Saturday’s 49-14 loss to set up an offseason QB competition.
48
Louisiana Tech scored 48 second-half points to sprint past Rice, 76-31, and take the Conference USA West. Rice scored 36 seconds into the third quarter to cut Tech’s lead to 28-24. The Owls’ next five possessions: punt, interception, interception, punt, fumble. Tech’s next six possessions: touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown. The Bulldogs returned a fumble for a touchdown in the middle of that as well.
That means the Conference USA title game will feature teams that scored 66 and 76 points in Week 14. That those two teams went 1-1 is unique, but, well, there were plenty of unique tidbits coming from Marshall’s costly 67-66 loss to WKU.
WKU's Brandon Doughty and Marshall's Rakeem Cato combined to complete 63 of 116 passes for 908 yards and 15 touchdowns. WKU's Leon Allen and Marshall's Steward Butler combined to rush 57 times for 470 yards and three scores. Five receivers (WKU's Jared Dangerfield, Tyler Higbee, and Taywan Taylor; UM's Tommy Shuler and Davonte Allen) combined for 34 catches, 611 yards, and nine touchdowns.
And perhaps my favorite note: there were five punts. In 34 possessions.
3,772
J.T. Barrett's redshirt freshman season comes to a close with 3,772 total yards. Barrett stepped up as Ohio State's new starting quarterback when Braxton Miller was lost for the season in fall camp. After a dreadful showing against Virginia Tech, he developed into one of the nation's best quarterbacks. With the Buckeyes up 28-21 early in the fourth quarter against Michigan, he suffered a broken ankle and left the field in an air cast.
Barrett’s final stat line: 2,834 passing yards with a 65 percent completion rate, 34 touchdowns, 10 interceptions (four in the first two games, six in the next 10), 938 rushing yards, and 11 rushing touchdowns. Sophomore Cardale Jones, third on the depth chart in August, will now take the reins for the national title contending Buckeyes in the Big Ten championship game against Wisconsin.
See More:
