Thursday
UCF at East Carolina (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
All the stakes in college football’s Championship Weekend, plus win projections
College football’s final weekend will play out like the opening rounds of the NCAA basketball tournament. Who survives conference title games, and who makes the Playoff?
Stakes: Memphis is in the clubhouse at 7-1, but a UCF win would give the Knights a share of the AAC title.
F/+ ranking: UCF 57th, ECU 62nd
F/+ Win Probability*: ECU 62%
* Note: The original win probabilities in this post were based on data amassed through only 13 weeks. The probabilities have all been updated, though none changed significantly.
Biggest Question: Who wins between ECU's receivers and UCF's defensive backs? ECU is going to throw. The Pirates run 40 percent of the time on standard downs (only SMU and Washington State throw more), and with cause. Their top three receivers (record-setting Justin Hardy, Isaiah Jones, and Cam Worthy) combine to average 8.9 yards per target and 229.3 per game. But UCF has one of the nation's most disruptive secondaries: Clayton Geathers, Brandon Alexander, Jordan Ozerities, and Jacoby Glenn have combined for 13 interceptions, 34 pass break-ups, 11 tackles for loss, and four forced fumbles.
Friday
Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green (7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
Stakes: The MAC title.
F/+ ranking: NIU 76th, BGSU 100th
F/+ Win Probability: NIU 72%
Biggest Question: What does Bowling Green have left? The Falcons backed in because everybody else in the East was bad. They finished 5-3 in conference, they lost twice in non-conference play (combined score against Wisconsin and Western Kentucky: Opponent 127, BGSU 48), and sophomore quarterback James Knapke has had an abysmal couple of weeks. Against Toledo and Ball State, he completed 25 of 51 for 211 yards and three sacks. This isn't Jordan Lynch's NIU, but the Huskies are the proven commodity.
More Friday night
No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 7 Arizona (9:00 p.m. ET, Fox)
Stakes: The Pac-12 title and Oregon's spot in the Playoff. And if Arizona wins, it wouldn't take many breaks for the Wildcats to land in the Playoff.
F/+ ranking: Oregon second, Arizona 28th
F/+ Win Probability: Oregon 85%
Biggest Question: What's different? On paper, Oregon holds a clear advantage over Rich Rodriguez's Wildcats. The Ducks rank first in Off. F/+, 23rd in Def. F/+, and 12th in Special Teams F/+; Arizona ranks 26th, 35th, and 66th, respectively.
Arizona’s progress has come in fits and starts -- in November, the Wildcats got shut down by UCLA and held off Washington at home, then thumped Utah on the road and beat ASU with the division on the line -- while Oregon has been on an upward trend since the banged-up offensive line began to stabilize.
Oregon seemed to hold the advantages on October 2, too, and Arizona won in Eugene. And Oregon was the favorite last November, when Arizona won by 26 points in Tucson. Rodriguez's staff clearly knows as well as anyone how to deal with Oregon's type of offense, and the Wildcats have disruptive play-makers who have been able to give Marcus Mariota problems that others couldn't. Odds are in Oregon's favor, but that hasn't mattered the last couple of times.
Saturday, day shift
Louisiana Tech vs. Marshall (12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
Stakes: The Conference USA title. Unfortunately for Marshall, following last week's upset loss to WKU, that's it.
F/+ ranking: Marshall 19th, Louisiana Tech 55th
F/+ Win Probability: Marshall 83%
Biggest Question: Can the aggressive Tech defense slow Marshall down? It's hard to score 66 points and lose, but Marshall pulled it off last week. The Herd have made bigger big plays than anybody this year, and they made their share against WKU. Rakeem Cato averaged more than 14 yards per completion, and Steward Butler averaged 9.7 yards per carry.
But Cato threw four picks and took three sacks, and while you can’t blame the Marshall offense for losing when its defense gave up nine touchdowns and 8.6 yards per play, the mistakes were costly. They also might be familiar this weekend; Louisiana Tech is up to 32nd in Def. F/+, thanks to coordinator Manny Diaz’s aggressive schemes. The Bulldogs have made 96 tackles for loss (sixth in the country) and defensed 79 passes (fourth). They’ll risk big plays to make their own. Can they force enough mistakes to give their offense a chance?
Houston at Cincinnati (12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Stakes: Like UCF, Cincinnati could snare a share of the AAC title, though Memphis would win a tie-breaker (if there's a need for such a thing) thanks to a 41-14 win over the Bearcats.
F/+ ranking: Cincinnati 54th, Houston 80th
F/+ Win Probability: Cincy 80%
Biggest Question: On whom do the turnover gods smile? It's cliche to talk about how much turnovers matter to Houston, but ... have you seen them play? Head coach Tony Levine preaches about turnovers more than any coach, and UH has had a series of funky results this year because of the whims of the bouncing ball. The Cougars have managed to lose at home to UTSA and Tulane (combined turnover margin: minus-7), but they beat Memphis on the road and whipped a decent Temple (combined: plus-6). Cincy is the stable team, but Houston seems to dictate its fate, for better or worse.
Iowa State at No. 3 TCU (12:00 p.m. ET, ABC)
Stakes: If the Horned Frogs win, it appears they are all but locks for a Playoff bid and, at worst, a share of the Big 12.
F/+ ranking: TCU fourth, ISU 87th
F/+ Win Probability: TCU 99%
Biggest Question: How much magic has Paul Rhoads stockpiled? After a big upset of Nebraska in 2009 and an historic one against Oklahoma State in 2011, Iowa State's notoriety for upsets has faded.
The Cyclones have still won some games they shouldn’t have -- they beat 7-6 TCU in Fort Worth and 8-5 Baylor in Ames in 2012, and they took down a not-awful Iowa in Iowa City this September -- but they haven’t won much else. They’re 5-18 since the start of 2013, they figured out a way to get thumped by Kansas a month ago, and they haven’t won a Big 12 game in more than a year. Did the bag of tricks go empty a while back?
Oklahoma State at No. 20 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1)
Stakes: Bedlam is enough.
F/+ ranking: Oklahoma 10th, OSU 75th
F/+ Win Probability: OU 98%
Biggest Question: Who's up for this? OU is watching as others play for what was supposed to be the Sooners' Big 12 title. OSU is facing down what might be its first no-bowl season since 2005. Mike Gundy isn't even pretending to care about media obligations, the offense fell apart a while ago, and the defense has followed suit. The 'Pokes have lost five in a row, all by at least 21 points. Do they rally in a rivalry game?
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 16 Missouri (4:00 p.m. ET, CBS)
Our SEC championship blogs
Stakes: The SEC title and Alabama's Playoff spot. At 16th, Missouri won't get into the top four with a win, so the SEC's spot is also on the line.
F/+ ranking: Alabama first, Missouri 31st
F/+ Win Probability: Alabama 90%
Biggest Question: Who controls the trenches? Missouri's defense is one of six that rank in the top 20 of both Adj. Line Yards (16th) and Adj. Sack Rate (17th), and the Tigers might rank even higher if Markus Golden hadn't battled a hamstring injury for half the season. Alabama's offense can not only match, but exceed those numbers: seventh in Adj. Line Yards, third in Adj. Sack Rate.
Even with Alabama’s overall numbers, Ole Miss, LSU, and Arkansas were able to control the line and force Alabama to gut out defensive victories, and the Tide were able to do so two of three times. If Missouri’s defensive front, so nasty in November, can win its share of fights, and if the Tigers are able to win the turnover battle, they could pull the upset. Of course, they’ll probably still have to move the ball; we’ll see about that.
Saturday, night shift
No. 9 Kansas State at No. 6 Baylor (7:45 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Stakes: Any hopes of Baylor snaring a Playoff bid require a win. Plus, Baylor can win the Big 12. Though the Big 12 has made it clear that the "One True Champion" motto is somewhere between poppycock and gobbledygook, the Bears would own the tie-breaker edge over TCU and could claim an outright title, even if that doesn't get them anywhere with the committee.
F/+ ranking: Baylor 11th, Kansas State 18th
F/+ Win Probability: Baylor 73%
Biggest Question: How worried should we be about the Baylor D? From Monday's Numerical:
Two games is not necessarily a trend, but following the Week 12 bye week, the Baylor defense has been abysmal. After never allowing more than 5.6 yards per play in any of their first 10 games (they held TCU to 5.5, WVU to 5.4, and Oklahoma to 5.2), the Bears allowed 5.8 per play in a 49-28 win over Oklahoma State, then allowed 8.6 on Saturday in Arlington. Tech’s Pat Mahomes completed 30 of 56 passes for 598 yards and six touchdowns and was sacked just once by Baylor’s once-fearsome defensive line.
A couple of weeks ago, we thought we knew how the rest of the Big 12 season was going to play out. TCU was going to struggle with Texas, Baylor was going to destroy OSU and Texas Tech, and the Bears would be in position to overtake the Horned Frogs.
It hasn't worked out. Now Baylor probably needs a huge win over KSU and help from an upset or two to reach the Playoff. KSU, by the way, has Tyler Lockett and an improving offense.
More Saturday night
No. 4 Florida State vs. No. 11 Georgia Tech (8:00 p.m. ET, ABC)
Stakes: Though undefeated FSU has fallen to fourth in the rankings, the Seminoles are into the semifinals with a win, especially considering how good Georgia Tech has turned out to be. Plus the whole "ACC title" thing.
F/+ ranking: FSU eighth, GT 12th
F/+ Win Probability: FSU 58%
Biggest Question: Does Tech have enough defense? This might be the best offense Paul Johnson has had since taking the job in 2008. The Jackets rank second in Off. F/+ and are adept at bend-don't-break defense and eventually forcing turnovers. And to say the least, Jameis Winston and the FSU offense have been happy to give the ball back a few times; Winston has thrown 17 interceptions in 11 games, 11 in the last five.
If you’re going to beat FSU, you have to take full advantage of their struggles with turnovers and in run defense. Tech can absolutely do that. But the Jackets aren’t going to take the ball away on every possession. Can the Jackets make enough outright stops? Rushing and picks have gotten teams close to beating the ‘Noles, but nobody’s been able to finish the job. What makes Tech different?
No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 13 Wisconsin (8:17 p.m. ET, Fox)
Our Big Ten championship blogs
Stakes: The Big Ten title. Ohio State has one last opportunity for a marquee win as the Buckeyes try to figure out how to move from fifth to fourth.
F/+ ranking: Ohio State third, Wisconsin 13th
F/+ Win Probability: Ohio State 69%
Biggest Question: This one's obvious, but ... what does Ohio State quarterback Cardale Jones bring to the table? Wisconsin's got a rough, aggressive defense that ranks 11th in Def. F/+. The Badgers have allowed greater than 4.6 yards per play just once in their last seven games, and even if J.T. Barrett were at full speed, the Buckeyes may have had some trouble.
Barrett’s got a broken ankle, of course. Jones, with 19 career passes, takes over. He’s proved himself as a run threat, and those 19 passes gained a decent 121 yards, but this is a hell of a time to make your first start. Does it take him a while to find a rhythm?
Fresno State at No. 22 Boise State (10:00 p.m. ET, CBS)
Stakes: In the Mountain West Championship, Boise State is looking to secure both another trophy and a spot in a New Year's Day bowl.
F/+ ranking: Boise State 26th, Fresno State 108th
F/+ Win Probability: BSU 98%
Biggest Question: Can Fresno sustain on offense? Fresno State wins "worst division champion" honors for 2014, going just 6-6 and ranking 108th in overall F/+, eight spots lower than Bowling Green. But the Bulldogs have shown flashes; they've twice won three games in a row, and against Boise State on the blue field on October 17, they looked far from overmatched in a 37-27 loss. They held the Broncos below their season offensive averages, and they put together five solid scoring drives.
Everything MWC title ...
The problem is that Fresno’s funks have been devastating. The Bulldogs have also lost three games in a row twice this year, and when they weren’t driving for a score against Boise State, they were going three-and-out. They punted seven times, and five were of the three-and-out variety. That they were still in the game until a late Boise field goal is encouraging, but are the Bulldogs capable of more than about 10 minutes of good offense?
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