The three teams sure to make the Playoff
College Football Playoff predictions after the final Saturday
The committee’s final top 25 comes out Sunday afternoon, but here’s an updated set of guesses, with notes on each game of impact.
SEC champion Bama is in, possibly as the No. 1 seed. Even if the Ducks grab No. 1 after beating a higher-ranked Week 15 opponent by a bigger margin, it won’t matter much. The Tide will host someone in the Sugar Bowl either way.
Mizzou should get a decent bowl, but won’t come anywhere near the New Year’s Six.
I think the Pac-12 champion Ducks hop potential SEC champion Bama for No. 1, after the Ducks destroyed a top-10 team and avenged their only loss with authority. But they’re hosting a semifinal at the Rose Bowl regardless.
The Wildcats looked like they could finish in a New Year’s bowl, perhaps the nearby Fiesta. But with this blowout, they might leave the top 11 (the cutoff for power-conference teams, due to a mid-major taking a spot). Who would take over?
Ignore the ranking. Ignore another close score. The ACC champions are Playoff locks. Any committee that wouldn’t enter the undefeated, reigning national champions is a committee desperate to see itself rearranged. Speculation will continue that the Noles only ranked No. 4 last week in order to line them up with Alabama in the nearby Sugar Bowl, but I think that works itself out.
CFB Playoff Selection
The Jackets essentially already clinched the ACC’s Orange Bowl trip.
The current New Year’s Six projection
| Semifinal | Date | Location | |||
| Rose | No. 1 Oregon | No. 4 Ohio State | 1/1/2015 | Pasadena, CA | |
| Sugar | No. 2 Alabama | No. 3 Florida State | 1/1/2015 | New Orleans, LA | |
| Bowl | Date | Location | Ties | ||
| Cotton | Baylor | Ole Miss | 1/1/2015 | Arlington, TX | At-large |
| Fiesta | Boise State | Arizona | 12/31/2014 | Glendale, AZ | At-large |
| Orange | Georgia Tech | Michigan State | 12/31/2014 | Miami, FL | ACC 1 vs. Big Ten/Notre Dame/SEC |
| Peach | TCU | Mississippi State | 12/31/2014 | Atlanta, GA | At-large |
The three teams battling for that fourth spot
No. 5 Ohio State 59 (12-1), No. 13 Wisconsin 0 (10-3)
A brief review of what might be each team’s best argument that the committee will actually factor:
- Baylor has the best list of ranked victims: current No. 3 TCU and current No. 9 Kansas State (safe to assume No. 20 Oklahoma won’t count anymore, since it just lost to 6-6 Oklahoma State). Ohio State has current No. 8 Michigan State and current No. 13 Wisconsin. The Frogs have just one, current No. 9 Kansas State.
- TCU has the best loss, a close win at Baylor, followed by the Bears’ two-score loss to 7-5 West Virginia on the road. Ohio State’s two-score loss to 6-6 Virginia Tech at home is still bad.
- Ohio State has 12 wins and the deepest schedule, with 10 bowl teams (that’s a very simple metric, but it’s not far from how the committee judges strength of schedule). TCU has 11 wins and seven bowl opponents, and Baylor has 11 and six.
Due to that head-to-head loss to Baylor, I think TCU’s out. The case for TCU over the others is just a complex one for the committee to make and would result in the greatest number of unhappy people.
It’s either Baylor or Ohio State. There’s no perfect answer. But considering OSU already ranked ahead of Baylor entering the weekend and then had a better weekend, I think we can guess the Buckeyes are the favorites.
Other stuff!
No. 22 Boise State 28 (11-2), Fresno State 14 (6-7)
Marshall 26 (12-1), Louisiana Tech 23 (8-5)
Cincinnati 38 (9-3), Houston 31 (7-5)
Those teams below Boise State, plus AAC co-champ Memphis, would’ve been in a logjam to take the Broncos’ New Year’s Six spot if the Broncos had lost. Boise State did not lose. Welcome back to the big time, Boise State.
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