And if Florida shows up, too, the matchups could be pretty fun. Let’s look at three questions for Saturday’s Florida-ECU game at Legion Field (noon, ESPN).
3 questions for Saturday’s Florida-East Carolina Birmingham Bowl
Bad news: there are only three FBS games left in the 2014 college football season. Good news: East Carolina’s playing in one of them!
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1. What say you, Florida?
Teams with interim coaches tend to be, shall we say, unpredictable. Maybe they rally around the assistant in charge, like current ECU head coach Ruffin McNeill’s charges did at Texas Tech, when he was bowl interim in the wake of Mike Leach’s firing. Maybe they start slow, like Houston did in Friday’s Armed Forces Bowl. Maybe they fall apart late, like Pittsburgh did in Friday’s Armed Forces Bowl.
It is a complete mystery how teams will respond, and with D.J. Durkin in charge of Florida in the wake of Will Muschamp’s firing, that makes Florida a coin flip.
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2. Can the Pirates dink and dunk as planned?
East Carolina turns every defense into one with bend-don’t-break tendencies. The Pirates rank 17th in the country in offensive success rate (efficiency) and 62nd in IsoPPP (explosiveness).
They pass as frequently as anybody, especially on passing downs, but efficiency is the goal. Justin Hardy and Isaiah Jones have combined for 186 receptions in 2014, but at only 11.3 yards per catch. Cam Worthy has been a solid big-play guy with 47 catches for 886 yards, but of the five Pirates with 20-plus catches, he's the only one who gets downfield.
Florida doesn’t give you many big plays. Depending on your allegiance, that’s either a perfect fit for the Gators or a perfect fit for ECU.
Shane Carden has somehow only been ECU's starting quarterback for three years -- it feels more like 13. He knows coordinator Lincoln Riley's offense as well as anybody ever will. He's completed 67 percent for nearly 12,000 yards. But rarely has he faced a secondary as fast as Florida's. For all of the Gators' problems over the last couple of seasons, the defense has come to play. If it's dialed in, it will be interesting to see how ECU moves the ball.
3. Who takes advantage of the offensive reps?
New head coach Jim McElwain will take the reins at Florida following the Birmingham Bowl. He has already installed Doug Nussmeier, formerly of Alabama and Michigan, to run what we assume will be something of a pro-style offense (whatever that term means at this point).
Florida’s offense has been miserable for two to three years now, and one shouldn’t expect that to change much on Saturday. But to the extent that the bowl game is the first game of the next season, some Gators will get a chance to start impressing the new staff.
So who steps up? Will a sophomore receiver like Demarcus Robinson or Ahmad Fulwood look the part of a go-to guy? (Robinson did in 2014, but his last five games vs. FBS competition generated 13 catches for 161 yards.) With junior Matt Jones likely to enter the NFL Draft, will sophomore running back Kelvin Taylor begin to seize control of the 2015 starting job? And who steps up to become a new potential anchor on the line?
ECU’s defense has been horrendous against the pass (113th in Passing S&P+) but sturdy against the run (45th in Rushing S&P+), and if you can choose to defend only one thing against Florida, it’s the run. Can the Pirates slow down a motivated Florida ground game if said ground game is motivated?
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