Boise State likely knocked out of New Year’s bowl race by 8-turnover blowout

Utah State crushed No. 21 Boise State at home on Friday night, 52-26. The Broncos turned the ball over eight times, including seven in the first half, and repeatedly gave the Aggies short fields to work with. Utah State, to its credit, took advantage nearly every time, not wasting an opportunity to embarrass the conference bullies after so many games that have gone the opposite direction.

The scoreline doesn’t even properly reflect the magnitude of the beating Utah State laid on Boise State. It was 45-10 at halftime, and Boise would put up three scores late in the game well after the outcome was locked up. The Broncos ended the game -7 in turnover margin, but better ball control in the second half put any hopes to bed for a run at the NCAA record of 13 turnovers in a game.

This was an incredibly unusual loss for Boise State, and the numbers bear that out. Since 1999, the Broncos had only lost four conference games by more than one score, and tonight’s loss to Utah State was the fifth. They hadn’t lost a conference game by more than 14 points since 2005 against Fresno, and this was the first time Boise has allowed over 50 points in regulation since 1998 against New Mexico State.

With Boise now saddled with two losses in a mediocre Mountain West and presumably out of the race for the New Year’s Six bowl berth, the race is open to a crowded field. The following Group of Five programs have either zero or one loss heading into the weekend:

Again, it’s hard to speak in definite with this sort of thing, but barring a highly improbable scenario, Boise State’s not going to get that bowl bid. As for the alternatives, they may not shine in the F/+ metrics, but Houston’s presence at No. 24 in this week’s AP Poll should give them the edge for now. Temple, Memphis, Western Kentucky, and Navy are also receiving votes, so they’re not that far behind.