LSU is sitting pretty at 6-0, sporting a No. 5 ranking in both the AP and Coaches polls. The Tigers feature the undisputed Heisman frontrunner at running back, an improving passing game and a typically athletic defense. After a (relative) breather against Western Kentucky this weekend, LSU finishes the season with a bang: at No. 8 Alabama, home against Arkansas, at No. 24 Ole Miss and home against No. 15 Texas A&M. Three ranked foes, plus an SEC opponent that is near impossible to blow out.
LSU’s defense isn’t on par with past Tiger title contenders, but it might not matter
Are the Tigers legitimate national title contenders or just supernatural players dragging along an average defense? Or maybe both?
Crystal LoGiudice-USA TODAY Sports
LSU fans (or at least the superstitious ones) are probably not surprised that their Tigers are in the hunt for the national title, based on the program’s peculiar four-year cycle. In 2003, 2007 and 2011, LSU won the SEC title. In the former two seasons, the Tigers added a national title to the mix. The 2011 team might have been the best of the three, but it had the bad fortune of playing Alabama twice.
So, how does the 2015 team compare to the others? With the caveats that the season is only half over and LSU’s remaining schedule is harder than the slate it has faced so far, here are the numbers.
Overall
| Year | F/+ Rating | SRS Rating | Sagarin Predictor Rating |
| 2015 | 43.7% (8) | 17.57 (9) | 83.96 (17) |
| 2011 | 68.3% (1) | 24.27 (2) | 98.31 (2) |
| 2007 | 63.2% (2) | 18.41 (2) | 92.43 (4) |
| 2003 | N/A | 20.85 (2) | 96.33 (2) |
Through six games, the 2015 team is not on the same level as the ‘03, ‘07 and ‘11 teams. This year’s team would be a one-score underdog to those teams, according to SRS, and a two-score underdog, according to the Sagarin Predictor. (To get a projected spread, just subtract the ‘15 team’s SRS or Predictor number from that of another team.) And as a reminder of the bloody-mindedness of the universe, the 2011 team does indeed grade out better than the 2003 and 2007 teams that won national titles.
So why would the 2015 team come up short compared to the others?
Offense
| Year | Yards per play | Scoring offense | Yards per carry | Passer rating |
| 2015 | 7.07 (10) | 37.3 (20) | 6.93 (3) | 139.47 (50) |
| 2011 | 5.71 (50) | 35.7 (17) | 4.80 (27) | 147.55 (24) |
| 2007 | 5.84 (28) | 38.6 (11) | 4.90 (15) | 133.61 (37) |
| 2003 | 5.89 (28) | 33.9 (19) | 4.38 (32) | 149.03 (11) |
The 2015 Tigers are better on a yards per play basis than any of LSU's three recent SEC champion teams. The passing game is behind, but the trend line for Brandon Harris is good, as he has played his two best games of the season in his last two outings. Admittedly, one of those games was against a South Carolina defense that also made Greyson Lambert look like a Heisman candidate, but the other came against Florida's elite secondary. If there is a scenario in which 2015 LSU gets to the level of the '03, '07 and '11 teams, it may be Harris continuing to develop.
One caveat: Bill Connelly’s offensive S&P+ numbers (which only go back to 2005) have the current LSU offense at No. 12 nationally, whereas the 2011 and 2007 offenses were both No. 6. There are two explanations. First, S&P+ has the LSU passing offense at No. 86, which is far worse than the 2007 and 2011 rushing and passing offenses, all of which were top 15. Second, S&P+ accounts for strength of schedule, so it can suss out the fact that LSU’s raw numbers right now have been compiled against the easier half of the slate.
Defense
| Year | Yards per play | Scoring defense | Yards per carry | Passer rating |
| 2015 | 4.74 (27) | 23.0 (43) | 3.09 (15) | 120.63 (50) |
| 2011 | 4.08 (2) | 11.3 (2) | 2.74 (6) | 95.58 (3) |
| 2007 | 4.42 (4) | 19.9 (17) | 3.20 (19) | 98.35 (3) |
| 2003 | 4.02 (1) | 11.0 (1) | 2.35 (3) | 89.81 (2) |
By every major category, this LSU defense is not on the same level of the others, especially in scoring defense and passer rating. And the advanced numbers agree, as LSU is currently No. 36 in defensive S&P+ after rating No. 2 in 2011 and No. 3 in 2007.
LSU's underwhelming pass defense numbers are especially worrying in light of the fact that the Tigers have had the good fortune to play a month's worth of second-, third- and fourth-string quarterbacks. (The last starter they faced was the since-benched Jeremy Johnson.) LSU's weakness stopping the pass might not be an issue when the Tigers go to Tuscaloosa. Instead, it could feature more prominently when Texas A&M visits on Thanksgiving weekend. That is, unless Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray are abducted by angry bats before they can get to Baton Rouge.
It’s not surprising that a team that had a sub-standard pass rush in 2014 and lost both starting defensive ends would struggle in pass defense. It is also unsurprising that a team that replaced the highly regarded John Chavis with Kevin Steele, whose last game as a defensive coordinator was this humiliation, would have unremarkable defensive numbers.
In 2003, LSU's defense was coordinated by Will Muschamp, with assistance from Nick Saban. In 2007, the defense was run by Bo Pelini. In 2011, Chavis was in charge. Compare the resumes of Muschamp, Pelini, and Chavis to that of Steele and you have the difference between the current LSU Tigers and the other teams that won the SEC and played for the national title.
Can the Tigers win it all anyway?
We are in the middle of an offensive era in college football. Oregon played for the national title last year despite the 28th-ranked defense because of an unstoppable offense led by a Heisman winner. The 2013 Auburn team was similar, surviving its 24th-ranked defense up until the final drive of the national title game. And 2010 Auburn won the national title with a defense that was only rated 17th.
Despite an offense straight out of the Herschel and Bo era of the 1980s, LSU could benefit from a modern age where elite college football teams don’t necessarily need a great defense. If LSU continues to churn out seven yards per play with a Fournette-focused offense, it can survive an underwhelming defense and fulfill the “every four years” mandate.
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