The season’s first Playoff rankings come out Tuesday night after 7 p.m. ET (refresh on how this works). There will be much anger. Baylor fans, plan to watch your team take it out on Kansas State two days later.
Michigan State and Memphis will rank better than you expect in the first Playoff top 25
The committee has a lot to balance, but one factor is strength of schedule. Here’s the kind of case someone in the room has surely presented for these two teams.
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But there will be happiness! The tentative happiness that comes with having a target on your back and soaring expectations! Clemson and LSU fans will be that kind of happy, and I think Memphis and Michigan State fans will, as well.
Michigan State’s schedule grades better than Baylor’s, Oklahoma State’s and TCU’s combined.
How do you evaluate strength of schedule? This is rhetorical, because it’s however makes your team look best, which is fine.
One way the committee does it is by grouping FBS into Good and Bad teams, or by looking at a team’s record against opponents with records of .500-plus. That’s silly, sure, but it’s the kind of math the committee trusts.
Michigan State has a 6-0 record against Non-Bad Teams (Air Force, CMU, Indiana, Michigan, Oregon and WMU). The Big 12’s three unbeatens have combined to play only four such teams (CMU, Minnesota and Rice, plus Texas Tech once for each).
The committee also looks at which ranked teams you’ve played. MSU miracle’d past Michigan, which ranks No. 16 in the AP and has a chance to be the committee’s highest-ranked two-loss team. Baylor, OSU and TCU haven’t beaten a single team with even one vote in either the AP or Coaches polls, and the Coaches will give anything a vote.
This is due in part to the Big 12’s backloaded schedule, which hoards drama for the end. TTU and West Virginia should count as decent wins by season’s end. But the committee’s job isn’t to give credit for things before they happen.
I think MSU will rank behind only Clemson, LSU and Ohio State. The Spartans have a #GameControl issue, having played too many close games, but so does TCU. Baylor doesn’t, but Baylor’s played nobody nobody (because Baylor is smart).
BTW, 8-0 Iowa and its four quality wins (two potentially ranked) might rank ahead of the Big 12 for now, too. Tried to warn you.
Take the Memphis taste test.
Which of these teams would you rank highest?
| Record vs. AP top 15 | Record vs. AP top 30 | Record vs. .500+ teams | Losses vs. sub-.500 | |
| A | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-0 | |
| B | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-0 | |
| C | 0-0 | 1-0 | 5-0 | |
| D | 0-1 | 2-1 | 3-1 | |
| E | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4-0 | |
| F | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3-0 | 1 |
| G | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-0 | |
| H | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-0 | |
| I | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5-1 |
Probably C, D or I, right?
Well:
| Record vs. AP top 15 | Record vs. AP top 30 | Record vs. .500+ teams | Losses vs. sub-.500 | |
| AP No. 2 Baylor | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-0 | |
| AP No. 18 Houston | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-0 | |
| AP No. 15 Memphis | 0-0 | 1-0 | 5-0 | |
| AP No. 8 Notre Dame | 0-1 | 2-1 | 3-1 | |
| AP No. 1 Ohio State | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4-0 | |
| AP No. 14 Oklahoma | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3-0 | 1 |
| AP No. 12 Oklahoma State | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-0 | |
| AP No. 5 TCU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-0 | |
| AP No. 13 Utah | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5-1 |
All (except Houston) rank ahead of Memphis in the AP, which does mean both referring to the AP and scowling at it. UH is here because it’s the other highest-ranked mid-major, for comparison.
Memphis hasn’t dominated like you’d expect of a Playoff team, but nobody’s asking for a top-four ranking. It ranks No. 34 in S&P+ and No. 15 in the Massey composite. Despite comfortably beating Ole Miss, it had scares against Bowling Green and USF and has given up 40 points three times. You can say those kinds of things about many teams, though.
The Tigers could be in the top 10, but if they don’t rank ahead of at least Oklahoma for now, you should call your congressional representatives. If you don’t like Memphis being up here, go fight Spencer Hall.
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