Nebraska's last-minute win against Michigan State Saturday was more than just a dramatic finish. For the standings atop the Big Ten's East division, Tommy Armstrong Jr.'s connection with Brandon Reilly was pivotal. It didn't kill the Spartans' hopes at winning the league, but it put control of the division into the hands of Michigan and Ohio State - two bitter rivals on course to play one of the biggest games of this college football season on Nov. 28, and maybe the biggest Michigan-Ohio State game since Lloyd Carr coached the Wolverines.
Thanks to Michigan State, this year’s Ohio State-Michigan should be the biggest in years
The Buckeyes and Wolverines are on a Big Ten East collision course.
Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
Michigan State, you might have heard, beat Michigan last month. That left the Wolverines in a tough position to win the division, behind both Ohio State and Michigan State in the standings.
But Michigan State’s loss to Nebraska, coupled with Michigan having taken care of all its other business since, leaves both teams with one loss. If Michigan holds serve against Indiana and Penn State - both outcomes being likely - the Wolverines will take their one-loss league record into a season finale at Michigan Stadium.
And if Ohio State doesn’t collapse against Illinois next weekend and then beats Michigan State in Columbus on Nov. 21 - both outcomes also being likely - we’re going to be looking at undefeated Ohio State facing one-league loss Michigan two days after Thanksgiving. Because Michigan State would have two losses, the Buckeyes and Wolverines would be duking it out for all the Big Ten East’s marbles. The standings could look like this:
| B1G East before Week 13, if favorites win out | ||
| Team | League Record | Overall Record |
| Ohio State | 7-0 | 11-0 |
| Michigan | 6-1 | 9-2 |
| Michigan State | 5-2 | 9-2 |
Had Michigan State not lost to Nebraska, Michigan wouldn’t be able to claim the division just by winning out. A Sparty loss to the Buckeyes would make just one league loss - same as Michigan - with MSU holding the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Michigan and Ohio State are not the best of friends in any year, but this year, they could both have everything on the line: a conference championship berth for either, and an almost certain shot at the College Football Playoff for the Buckeyes. Even Michigan, with wins over undefeated Ohio State and potentially an undefeated Iowa, would have a non-zero chance at the Playoff.
This year’s Buckeyes-Wolverines clash is extra juicy from a pure football standpoint, too.
Michigan's rush defense is magnificent, and so is Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott. A Michigan front that allows 2.6 yards per carry going up against Elliott is a classic unstoppable force-meets-immovable object case.
So is Ohio State's quarterback, whether it's J.T. Barrett or Cardale Jones, trying to solve Michigan's brilliant secondary, led by safety Jabrill Peppers and cornerback Jourdan Lewis. Michigan defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin has put together a havoc-creating scheme that makes life very hard on opposing offensive lines.
Michigan is happy to deploy cornerback blitzes, which is fun to watch but highly dangerous against Ohio State's offense. Buckeye receivers Michael Thomas, Jalin Marshall and Braxton Miller could do serious damage if Michigan loads the box either in pre-snap formations or via secondary blitzing. There's also the threat of Elliott, Miller or Curtis Samuel swinging out of the backfield and running forever if Michigan's linemen and linebackers get too far up the field.
The Wolverines’ defense thrives on creating a mess. Havoc rate, which measures a defense’s ability to make certain kinds of plays (tackles for loss, forced fumbles, defensed passes), paints Michigan as one of the country’s most chaotic defenses.
| Stat | Michigan | Rank | National Average |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 21.6% | 7 | 16.2% |
| DL Havoc Rate | 8.5% | 9 | 5.1% |
| LB Havoc Rate | 3.1% | 102 | 4.5% |
| DB Havoc Rate | 10.0% | 3 | 6.4% |
Aggression, for Michigan, has generally been a good thing. But if Elliott finds a crack anywhere in the Wolverine defense, things like this can happen:
Pack that in with Michigan quarterback Jake Rudock trying to stay out of the clutches of Joey Bosa, Tyquan Lewis and company in a stadium with well over 100,000 people, and this could become one of the greatest editions of one of the greatest rivalries in the sport. Buckle up.
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