It was a Bedlam blowout. After a back-and-forth first quarter that saw Oklahoma State take a 10-7 lead 10 minutes in, Oklahoma struck, outscoring the Cowboys by a 51-13 margin the rest of the way. The Sooners cruised to the Big 12 title and stand at 11-1 overall, all but guaranteed a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Oklahoma is virtually assured a spot in the Playoff. Who should the Sooners want to face?
The Sooners find out Tuesday night where they are in the pecking order, then get to spend conference title weekend scouting potential opponents.
OU’s comfortable spot is affirmation that the Big 12’s offseason freakout over its lack of a championship game was rather short-sighted, and it allows the Sooners to begin scouting early.
It appears the Playoff’s If/Then structure is set. OU’s in. The Big Ten title game winner, be it Iowa or Michigan State, is in. If Clemson beats North Carolina in the ACC title game, the Tigers are in. If Alabama beats Florida in the SEC title game, the Crimson Tide are in.
An ACC or SEC upset could open the door for North Carolina, Stanford or Ohio State, but we’ll need an upset to add question marks. With chalk, we know who’s playing for the trophy.
We don’t know the order, though. And that makes the unveiling of Tuesday night’s CFP rankings intriguing. [Update: No surprises. Oklahoma’s still No. 3.] Clemson held on to the No. 1 ranking heading into Thanksgiving, but the Tigers’ 37-32 dispatching of shaky rival South Carolina might not have impressed the committee. Meanwhile, it took Alabama a while to build a cushion at Auburn, but the Crimson Tide did so.
Might Bama jump Dabo Swinney’s team? Will Iowa get bonus points for finishing the regular season 12-0? Will OU, the first official power conference champion, get a bump for winning the league?
Even with chalk, Oklahoma could end up playing any of the four primary contenders. From a matchups perspective, who would the Sooners rather face?
As one would expect from a team the computers adore -- third in S&P+, second in FEI, second in the Massey Composite, first in FPI -- OU doesn’t have too many distinguishable weaknesses. But no team is perfect. Let’s look at some of the Sooners’ weaknesses and which team might be most adept at taking advantage of them.
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1. Who’s most susceptible to Oklahoma’s big runs?
The Sooners’ run game is pretty inefficient. It seems an odd thing to say when you’ve got 230-pound Samaje Perine plowing out of the backfield. But while OU ranks eighth in Rushing IsoPPP (which measures the magnitude of successful plays) thanks to the open-field explosiveness of Perine and Joe Mixon, only 41 percent of Perine’s carries are gaining at least five yards. And OU’s short-yardage numbers (40th in power success rate) are neither great nor terrible.
So how do potential opponents fare here?
- Alabama is devastating against the run. The Crimson Tide rank first in Rushing S&P+ (and second in rushing success rate and 23rd in rushing IsoPPP, neither of which is adjusted for opponent). Against a defense like this, OU would need to make the most of the rare big-play opportunities it gets, because most runs will go for about 1 yard.
- Clemson is also good against the run ... most of the time. Former OU coordinator Brent Venables’ defense ranks 15th in Rushing S&P+, but it’s a high-wire act. The Tigers are fourth in rushing success rate allowed (meaning a lot of no-gain carries) but are a whopping 127th in rushing IsoPPP. They rarely allow you space, but when they do, you are running for a long time.
- Iowa is the opposite. Stoops’ alma mater ranks 11th in Rushing S&P+ -- 37th in success rate, seventh in IsoPPP. They could allow the Sooners to find a rhythm up front, but they don’t allow the big plays OU relies on.
- Michigan State is ... inconsistent. If you watch any broadcast of a State game, you’re going to hear a lot about the Spartans’ dominant defensive front. And the ceiling for MSU’s run defense is as high as anyone’s. Case in point: not including one sack, Ohio State rushed 28 times for 94 yards a week and a half ago in Columbus. But it hasn’t been like that every week. MSU ranks 30th in Rushing S&P+ -- 82nd in success rate, 13th in IsoPPP. The Spartans flow to the ball well and don’t allow big plays, but if you’re patient, you’ll find running room. Penn State’s Saquon Barkley did on Saturday: 17 carries, 103 yards.
2. Who can give Baker Mayfield trouble?
OU’s passing game is the opposite of the run: efficient but not particularly explosive. The Sooners rank 11th in Passing S&P+ -- seventh in passing success rate but just 51st in passing IsoPPP. Baker Mayfield’s season averages are spectacular -- 69 percent completion rate, 13.9 yards per completion -- but he’s leaned more on the former than the latter of late.
In OU’s three consecutive wins over top-15 teams (Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State), Mayfield completed 63 percent of his passes, but for only 11.5 yards per completion. This can work. Mayfield’s passer rating was over 150 in two of the three games. But OU has had to sacrifice some downfield looks in the name of moving the chains.
The lack of a big-play presence against strong defenses, along with Mayfield’s penchant for taking sacks (OU ranks 104th in Adj. Sack Rate) has meant that the Sooners struggle to catch up if they fall behind the chains. OU ranks third in Standard Downs S&P+ but only 63rd in Passing Downs S&P+.
- Hey, guess what: Alabama’s pass defense is awesome. Who knew? The Crimson Tide are first in Passing S&P+, first in Standard Downs S&P+ and third in Passing Downs S&P+. And they’re second in Adj. Sack Rate. You can connect with some shots downfield (71st in passing IsoPPP), but that only matters so much, because you usually won’t have time to throw. Spoiler alert: if the question is “who’s the worst matchup for your offense?” the answer is usually “Alabama.”
- Clemson’s defense is inferior to Alabama’s, but only so much. The Tigers are third in Passing S&P+, again risking occasional big plays (36th in passing IsoPPP) for extreme efficiency (third in passing success rate, fourth in passer rating allowed). Down for down, Clemson is almost as impressive as Alabama, but the breakdowns are more frequent, especially when the pass rush doesn’t get home; Clemson is just 61st in Passing Downs S&P+.
- You need to be able to run on Michigan State, as the Spartans’ pass defense has shored up nicely. MSU ranks eighth in Passing S&P+, though as with Clemson, the Spartans’ “we dare you to make this throw” gamble doesn’t always pay off; they are just 73rd in passing IsoPPP and 48th in Passing Downs S&P+. But the pass rush is strong (25th in Adj. Sack Rate).
- Iowa’s pass defense is mediocre. The Hawkeyes are 38th in passing success rate allowed and 12th in passing IsoPPP, but opponent adjustments render them 56th in Passing S&P+. And the Hawkeyes might not be able to take full advantage of OU’s passing downs struggles: they’re just 48th in PD S&P+.
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3. Who can take advantage of Oklahoma’s one glaring weakness?
OU has its own high-wire defense, and it frequently comes up big. The Sooners rank seventh in Rushing S&P+.
But the weaknesses are obvious: 77th in rushing IsoPPP, 54th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line), 114th in power success rate.
Texas’ ability to gash the OU run defense was the biggest factor in the Longhorns’ increasingly stunning 24-17 win over the Sooners on October 10, and if OU falls short of the title, run defense will probably be the reason why.
- Alabama’s passing game has improved but is still only good. But that matters only so much because of the outstanding defense and Derrick Henry’s consistency on the ground. Alabama ranks 13th in Rushing S&P+, and while there are some breakdowns in the backfield (45th in stuff rate), OU might not be able to take advantage. OU’s defensive line is speedy but quite undersized (average size of the Sooners’ top six linemen: 6’2, 282), and Henry and the Alabama offensive line are not.
- Clemson isn’t incredibly effective on the ground (28th in Rushing S&P+), but the Tigers don’t move backwards. They are sixth in power success rate and 16th in stuff rate, and that accounts for a lack of big plays (74th in rushing IsoPPP). Not screwing up is Clemson’s biggest offensive strength overall. Not only do they move forward, Deshaun Watson almost never gets sacked (fifth in Adj. Sack Rate).
- Iowa’s run game is similar to Clemson’s, only with less impact from the QB. Iowa is 72nd in IsoPPP (despite Jordan Canzeri’s big runs against Nebraska) and 92nd in opportunity rate (percentage of carries with at least five yards). But the Hawkeyes are efficient (25th in success rate), solid in short yardage (27th in power success rate) and good at avoiding bad plays (28th in stuff rate).
- Michigan State is only good in one kind of running situation. The Spartans are 109th in Rushing S&P+ and are pretty bad in every category but one: they’re eighth in power success rate. So, while they would probably win most third-and-2 battles against the Sooners, getting to third-and-2 would be an issue.
Considering these teams’ overall rankings -- Alabama is first in S&P+, Clemson second, Michigan State 11th, Iowa 29th -- it makes sense that the Crimson Tide and Tigers seem more equipped to take advantage of OU’s weaknesses.
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