No. 12 Ole Miss is rolling into the postseason with the momentum of a pair of top 25 wins in its last two games. For No. 16 Oklahoma State, it’s the opposite.
Sugar Bowl 2016 odds and picks: Ole Miss could smother a fading Oklahoma State
Two of the nation’s most high-powered passing offenses meet in the 2015 Sugar Bowl, but can Oklahoma State’s defense stand up to Chad Kelly and Ole Miss’s aerial attack?
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The Rebels will travel to the Sugar Bowl after beating no. 20 LSU and then-No. 21 Mississippi State by double digits en route to a 9-3 season. The Cowboys have the better record at 10-2, but their world has been crashing down around them in recent weeks. An undefeated start to their season was snuffed out in week 11 when they lost to No. 17 Baylor. A week later, No. 3 Oklahoma took them behind the woodshed in a 58-23 beating in the final game of their regular season.
| Matt Brown | Bill Connelly | Wescott Eberts | Bud Elliott | Steven Godfrey | Spencer Hall |
| Ole Miss | Oklahoma State | Oklahoma State | Ole Miss | Ole Miss | Ole Miss |
| Jason Kirk | Rodger Sherman | Pete Volk | Luke Zimmermann | OddsShark | ESPN |
| Oklahoma State | Ole Miss | Ole Miss | Ole Miss | Ole Miss | Ole Miss |
S&P+ loves Ole Miss, despite three losses. The Rebels are ranked No. 7 in the statistic after losing games to Florida, Memphis and Arkansas, thanks in part to a marquee win over No. 2 Alabama. Former Clemson quarterback Chad Kelly has been the key to Mississippi’s big season. He’s thrown for more than 3,700 yards while guiding his team to nearly 515 yards per game, good for 11th in the country.
Those ratings aren't as bullish on the Cowboys. S&P+ places OK State outside the top 25 thanks to a middling defense that only ranks 58th in the FBS. They've surrendered 30 points or more in their last three games and four of their last five, which could be victory anathema against a Rebel team that's 8-1 when scoring 25 points or more in 2015. They'll need Mason Rudolph and the nation's seventh-ranked passing offense to come alive if they're going to win a likely shootout on January 1st.
Pete Volk explained why he likes Ole Miss’s chances in the Sugar Bowl.
I picked Ole Miss because I think there are significant talent and quality gaps between the two teams. Oklahoma State played very well against TCU, but I think the Cowboys’ success was helped by a backloaded schedule and some close games luck. The Ole Miss defense should shut Oklahoma State down.
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