Arizona’s arm and New Mexico’s legs ensure bowl season’s first game will be explosive

Early in this year’s coaching carousel, Arizona head coach Rich Rodriguez’s name came up as tied to the Virginia Tech job. Then he interviewed with South Carolina and, depending on who you believe, either didn’t get an offer or turned one down. He returned to Tucson, announced Arizona was where he wanted to be and got back to work.

Now, how does his team respond? If you’re listing reasons why teams lay eggs in bowl games, a head coach flirting with another job might show up. A disappointing season might, too. A year after winning 10 games for the first time in 16 years, the Wildcats stumbled to 6-6. I called this a rebuilding year in the offseason, but this wasn’t what I had in mind.

It didn’t help that seemingly the entire team was dealing with injury. Quarterback Anu Solomon missed two games, sophomore running back Nick Wilson missed three and the defense lacked identity and quality with All-American Scooby Wright III playing only a handful of snaps all year. (Wright is expected to play in the bowl game.)

Arizona was just 1-6 against teams ranked better than 90th in S&P+ -- that’s the bad news. The good news: New Mexico is 101st. The Lobos’ ranking came about by splitting the difference, basically -- they’re 3-2 against teams ranked better than 90th (Arizona is 84th), and they’re a ghastly 4-3 against teams ranked worse. Arizona is the better team on average, but the Wildcats will have to show up and play well.

New Mexico has been all sorts of volatile, beating Boise State (No. 59 in S&P+) on the road and Air Force (No. 46) and Utah State (No. 47) at home, while getting waxed by Arizona State (No. 61), San Jose State (No. 92), Tulsa (No. 95) and Nevada (No. 100) by an average of 35-17.

The quickest paths to volatility are youth and a reliance on big plays. The former doesn’t apply -- 11 of the Lobos’ top 13 tacklers are juniors and seniors, as are four of their five starters on the offensive line, the top two receivers and the top two running backs. Quarterback Lamar Jordan is a sophomore, but this is a veteran team.

The latter applies completely. New Mexico’s rushing success rate (unadjusted for opponent) ranks 93rd in the country, and its passing success rate ranks 112th. That’s bad. But the Lobos have generated 34 plays of at least 30 yards (22nd in the country) and 13 of at least 50 (11th). Jordan is completing only 53 percent of his passes but is averaging 16.1 yards per completion, and senior running back Jhurell Pressley is one of the country’s better home run hitters. He is the Adam Dunn of college football: home runs or strikeouts.

Of the 130 players with at least 130 carries this season, Pressley’s 32 percent opportunity rate (percentage of carries gaining at least five yards) ranked an abysmal 114th. His average of 10.4 highlight yards per opportunity ranked second, behind only Georgia Southern’s Matt Breida and ahead of every other explosive back you can think of: Florida State’s Dalvin Cook (10.2), Notre Dame’s C.J. Prosise (6.9), LSU’s Leonard Fournette (6.8), etc.

Pressley is dynamite in the open field, and the number of open field chances he gets might determine the winner.

It appears most of the cogs of the Arizona offense will be on the field. Solomon and receiver Samajie Grant are expected back from head injuries. That could give the Wildcats enough firepower to keep their distance.

But if New Mexico’s defense, which gives up as many big plays as its offense makes, can get off the field on third-and-long, the Lobos will have a chance.

Solomon has been startlingly successful on third-and-long. With seven or more yards to go, he’s 25-for-37 for 408 yards, two touchdowns, no picks and five gains of at least 25 yards. He has not been much of a run threat this year, but if a decent New Mexico pass rush cannot track him down in the backfield, he will probably find open receivers against an often overmatched Lobo secondary.

Passing downs almost always favor the defense, but unless Arizona is indeed flat-footed and going through the motions, passing downs might not favor New Mexico. And if they don’t, the Lobos will need an enormous game from Pressley and company to keep up.