Leonard Fournette will run on Texas Tech. Don’t be shocked if TTU can run on LSU too, though

It’s not supposed to work out this way. When behind-the-scenes actors decide it’s time for a coaching change, no matter how ridiculous, the change happens.

Of course, LSU makes a habit out of doing things differently. A coup against head coach Les Miles failed, and his goodbye moment at Death Valley against Texas A&M actually wasn’t.

So ... how awkward might this offseason become if LSU loses to Texas Tech? It probably won’t happen -- the Tigers have a significant advantage in the predictive stats -- but it could.

Awkwardness aside, this game is about 2016 positioning. Back when it looked like Miles was about to get run out of town, I wrote that “Miles has recruited well, and without any changes whatsoever, LSU could expect to field an improved defense and its best offense in years in 2016.” Quarterback Brandon Harris, leading receiver Malachi Dupre, and rock-of-granite-with-4.4-speed Leonard Fournette are all sophomores. Plus, while some juniors could go pro, only three of the top 25 tacklers on defense are seniors.

This was an inconsistent, high-upside squad that soared then fell hard in November; led by just about any coach, it could expect to improve in 2016.

Still, we will overreact to whatever we see in Houston. If the offense, led by Fournette and an all-or-nothing play-action passing attack, can pummel Tech’s defense like matchup stats suggest it could, Fournette might start 2016 atop the Heisman list, just as he was until November. And if Kevin Steele’s defense, loose against the run but mostly awesome against the pass, can shake up the Tech passing game like only Oklahoma has this year, LSU might start the season in the top five.

If the opposite happens, and LSU gives up 400 passing yards in a loss, I have no idea where the Tigers end up. We can’t help ourselves when it comes to overreacting to bowls, but I’m not sure what that means for a team with such youth.

Texas Tech looked awfully bad at times, and while the result of the season was a step forward after a disappointing 2014, the downs were discouraging. Kliff Kingsbury’s third season produced maybe his best offense yet ... and maybe his worst defense. At the moment, Tech ranks sixth in Off. S&P+ and 128th, dead last, in Def. S&P+.

The Tech defense is a bend-don’t-break defense that doesn’t prevent big plays and folds in the red zone. Not a good combination. We’ll see what coordinator David Gibbs can do with his own guys in 2016 -- he was working mostly with the old staff in his first year -- but year 1 of the experiment was a drastic failure.

As is always the case with a Gibbs defense, Tech forced quite a few turnovers (24, nine more than in 2014), but two per game wasn’t enough to offset the 2.95 points per possession (119th in FBS) and 5.74 points per scoring opportunity (125th).

Both offenses in every Tech game -- Tech’s and its opponent’s -- were almost guaranteed to roll. The Red Raiders scored at least 35 points in nine of 12 games and allowed at least 31 in nine.

But one of their most impressive performances came against a team not different from LSU. In fact, Tech scored a huge transitive win by pounding Arkansas, 35-24; LSU fell to the Hogs, 31-14. That was three months and five Tech losses ago, but the blueprint for beating the Tigers is similar.

Against Arkansas, Tech turned almost every scoring chance into a touchdown, and while Arkansas advanced into Tech territory in six of eight possessions, the Hogs couldn’t produce many big plays, and three of six said drives came away with either turnovers or field goal attempts. Tech allowed 6.6 yards per play but made timely stops and averaged 8.4 per play itself.

Finish well and prevent LSU from doing the same, and Tech can pull the upset. That’s far easier said than done, but the Arkansas game (not to mention Tech’s last bowl, which featured an upset of a far more successful Arizona State) shows it can be done.

Check out the monstrous stat preview here.

Though Fournette’s name disappeared from Heisman consideration after a dreadful performance against Alabama (19 carries, 31 yards) and only decent games thereafter (4.7 yards per carry against Arkansas, Ole Miss, and A&M) the combination of rest and a sieve of a Tech defense might do him good. Fournette ended last year with an 11-carry, 143-yard performance against Notre Dame (which also included a kick return touchdown), and it’s easy to see him doing something even worse to poor Tech.

But the interest in the rushing game goes both ways. Tech rushes are infrequent -- the Red Raiders run only 50 percent of the time on standard downs (114th in the country) and 27 percent on passing downs (103rd) -- but they’re good at it, and LSU isn’t good at stopping it. Tech ranks first in Rushing S&P+, and LSU’s defense ranks a mediocre 50th.

It’s not likely that DeAndre Washington (who averaged about 19 carries per game) will suddenly shoulder a 40-carry load, but considering LSU’s strengths and weaknesses, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Tech lean on the run more than normal. It might work, and it might give Tech the diversity to keep up on the scoreboard.