Michigan vs. Florida in October would’ve been fantastic. In the Citrus, it’ll still be interesting

It wasn’t just the shutout streak. Michigan went almost 200 minutes without allowing a point, shutting out BYU, Maryland and Northwestern and nearly doing the same to UNLV.

Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines also held Utah, Oregon State and Michigan State well under season averages. Defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin’s defense was easily the best in the country through mid-October.

This allowed for pragmatic growth on the other side. Not much was expected from the Wolverines in their first year under Harbaugh, but the offense developed into a top-40 unit.

Until the fluky loss to Michigan State on Oct. 17, Michigan was looking like a potential national title contender. Their form regressed, culminating in a blowout loss to Ohio State.

The culprit wasn’t heartbreak. It was the defensive front. Mario Ojemudia had six tackles for loss in five games but missed the final seven. Ryan Glasgow missed three games. Matthew Godin and Tom Strobel missed two each. A defense that allowed a combined 378 yards to BYU, Maryland and Northwestern allowed 461 to Minnesota and 527 to Indiana.

Because the S&P+ ratings are based on full-season averages, and because Michigan’s defense was so good over the first half, the Wolverines still rank sixth overall in S&P+. They are this year’s 2014 Ole Miss, the team that set an incredibly high bar then faded. It would be shocking if the Wolverines laid the same kind of bowl egg that the Rebels did to close 2014 (for one of many reasons, Florida isn’t 2014 TCU), and the defense could get better simply by getting some rest.

At the time Florida quarterback Will Grier was suspended for PED use, the Gators were 6-0 and fifth in S&P+. This was powered mostly by a steady defense, but the offense was staying out of the way. And in performances like the ones against NMSU (7.7 yards per play, 61 points) and Ole Miss (5.6, 38), it was showing potential.

With sophomore Treon Harris back in charge, the Gators continued to show promise. They averaged 28 points and 5.7 yards per play against LSU and Georgia, and the Gators had the SEC East locked up by the beginning of November.

Things went to hell on a stick. Last five games, including the SEC Championship: 14 points per game, 4.2 yards per play. Yes, that includes games against strong Alabama, Florida State and Vanderbilt defenses; it also includes games against Florida Atlantic and South Carolina.

After producing passer ratings of 144.9 and 128 against Georgia -- far from bad -- Harris topped 121 once in the final five games and crept below 101 three times. Running back Kelvin Taylor was able to carry a decent amount of water for a while (against South Carolina, FAU and FSU: 70 carries, 346 yards), but he carried seven times for 8 yards against Alabama.

Before the season began, if you’d offered Florida fans 10 wins and an SEC East title, it would have been unanimously accepted. Same with offering Michigan nine wins and a top-10 defense. But with the way both seasons unfolded, you wonder how much either team has left in the tank.

Florida might have an opportunity to establish Taylor and the run game against the broken Michigan front. Michigan might have a chance to reassert defensive dominance against a lifeless foe. (I figure the latter is more likely than the former, but both are on the table.)

And, of course, Michigan will still have to score on Florida’s defense at some point.

Check out the monstrous stat preview here.

Michigan hasn’t produced a lot of big plays, but the Wolverines have ways to be efficient. Running back De’Veon Smith only generated 5-plus yards on 31 percent of his carries, but after a slow start, quarterback Jake Rudock completed two-thirds of his passes over the final eight games. This efficiency, plus good special teams, have resulted in steady field position advantages.

Florida’s defense is really good at knocking you behind schedule, however. Can the short passing game thrive against an exceedingly sticky Gator defense?

Which negative trend is stemmed when Florida has the ball? The Gators’ efficiency was never great, but over their last three games, their success rate was a nightmarish 29 percent. And while Michigan’s defensive success rates were good this year, the Wolverines allowed a 44 percent rate over the final three games.

Michigan appears to have an advantage, but if Florida can figure out ways to match the Wolverines’ output, they could engineer enough big plays to steal an 11th win.