The Big Ten saw turnover with a third of its head coaching spots, though none at schools who should conceivably be able to challenge for the Big Ten title. But which new coach can change the fortunes of a school the most? Recruiting rankings are as good a predictor as any, and based on recruiting, the answer seems obvious: D.J. Durkin at Maryland.
Maryland is the Big Ten school most likely to make big strides under its new coach
Four Big Ten programs made coaching changes. Maryland is best situated to improve in the next few years.
Matthew Holst/Getty Images
Maryland has been the sixth-best recruiting school in the Big Ten, but lost 39 games in Randy Edsall’s five seasons in College Park. The reason? A combination of awful injury luck, insane turnover luck, quarterback issues, coaching and being in the far superior East Division, which holds six of the league’s top eight recruiting teams.
Maryland has the talent to win more games than it did under Edsall. Perhaps a lot more if the turnover luck turns neutral or positive and it can keep a quarterback healthy.
“Maryland really should not lose more than 5 or 6 games per year over the life of Durkin’s first contract (five years), but that could be hard,” Alex Kirshner of Testudo Times said, citing Maryland bringing back a bunch of key pieces. Cutting the five-year loss count down from 39 to 32 or 30 seems reasonable, even if the Terrapins have a tougher slate than teams in the Western Division.
Durkin is stepping into a job with a fanbase and administration willing to be patient, in an area flush with recruits. It’s tough to see Maryland playing for the Big Ten Title, but if Durkin is an effective head coach he will consistently take Maryland to bowl games, which would be a huge improvement. That could lead to even better recruiting and maybe give Maryland a shot to win some games against the division’s elite, especially if he builds on an already strong 2016 class. Durkin has already hired coaches with strong ties to D.C. and Virginia. Keeping an elite recruiter like Mike Locksley on staff would help, too.
Illinois isn’t a sleeping giant, but it could easily be better. Minnesota is close to its ceiling.
The next team with the greatest chance to improve is Illinois. Illinois does not have the best in-state talent nationally, but by Big Ten standards it’s a pretty good state.
The Illini were solid under coach Bill Cubit relative to typical Illinois standards (five bowls in the last quarter century), ranking 67th in F/+, only 10 spots behind Minnesota. If Cubit can get Illinois to a bowl every other year or so, he might be able to pull some better recruits.
It is not inconceivable that Illinois could become a consistent third or fourth-placed finisher in the Big Ten West, since Minnesota is probably not going to become significantly better than it was under Glen Mason or Jerry Kill, and Illinois has better recruiting turf than Minnesota. Division mates Wisconsin, Nebraska and Iowa are also not on any major upswing on the recruiting trail.
Rutgers is an interesting case.
New coach Chris Ash will quickly be able to show what he has learned on the recruiting trail from Urban Meyer and Bret Bielema. Rutgers has a fertile recruiting area, albeit not quite as strong as Maryland.
The reason I am forecasting Durkin to have more success than Ash is that Maryland returns a more talented roster, was a better team this season despite winning one fewer game than the Scarlett Knights, has a slightly better recruiting area and much more winning tradition. It’s possible that both programs improve, however, and Ash might be a big upgrade over the dysfunction found in Piscataway of late.
