2015 Bahamas Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Western Michigan vs. Middle Tennessee
December 24 ( 12:00 PM ET, ESPN ), Thomas Robinson Stadium, Nassau
Spread: Western Michigan -3
S&P+ Projection: Western Michigan 35.9, Middle Tennessee 27.6
Team Sites: Underdog Dynasty (MTSU), Hustle Belt (WMU)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
The Basics
| Category | Middle Tennessee | Western Michigan | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 81 | 54 | ||
| Category | Middle Tennessee offense | Western Michigan defense | Western Michigan offense | Middle Tennessee defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.77 (38) | 6.14 (113) | 6.31 (17) | 4.98 (38) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 463.6 (27) | 415.3 (85) | 467.9 (25) | 387.2 (56) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.45 (48) | 2.34 (88) | 2.84 (19) | 1.78 (39) |
| Category | Middle Tennessee offense | Western Michigan defense | Western Michigan offense | Middle Tennessee defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 28.2 (74) | 31.1 (85) | 37.1 (25) | 30.4 (82) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 102.3 (68) | 90.5 (99) | 108.9 (35) | 95.5 (83) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 122.4 (21) | 94.5 (85) | 122.1 (22) | 81.6 (120) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 107.5 (43) | 92.3 (93) | 111.3 (30) | 88.4 (113) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 130.5 (11) | 93.8 (88) | 126.1 (15) | 89.9 (98) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 123.7 (15) | 85.3 (116) | 117.3 (26) | 88.2 (105) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 117.7 (29) | 99.5 (76) | 112.9 (35) | 84.6 (112) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 102.9 (68) | 101.0 (69) | 124.4 (16) | 113.5 (32) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 102.4 (70) | 93.1 (98) | 127.2 (4) | 84.9 (117) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Middle Tennessee
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 4 offense vs. No. 127 defense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 7 offense vs. No. 111 defense)
- Redzone S&P+ (No. 19 offense vs. No. 110 defense)
- Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 10 offense vs. No. 90 defense)
- Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 11 offense vs. No. 88 defense)
Western Michigan
- Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 15 offense vs. No. 122 defense)
- Passing S&P+ (No. 22 offense vs. No. 120 defense)
- Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 20 offense vs. No. 116 defense)
- Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 30 offense vs. No. 120 defense)
- Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 16 offense vs. No. 106 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | Middle Tennessee offense | Western Michigan defense | Western Michigan offense | Middle Tennessee defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.29 (48) | 1.42 (118) | 1.40 (10) | 1.21 (39) |
| EFFICIENCY | 44.2% (36) | 41.9% (71) | 43.3% (47) | 41.9% (70) |
| FIELD POSITION | 29.6 (74) | 28.1 (36) | 29.5 (78) | 33.7 (120) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 5.1 (38) | 4.9 (89) | 5.0 (48) | 3.8 (10) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Middle Tennessee -1.01 (80) Western Michigan 4.62 (27) | ACTUAL Middle Tennessee -3 (87) Western Michigan 0 (65) | ||
Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Middle Tennessee offense | Western Michigan offense |
| Adj. Pace | 5.9 (19) | 0.1 (58) |
| Plays per game | 80.3 (20) | 74.2 (61) |
| Possessions per game | 14.0 (20) | 12.4 (103) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 58.5% (70) | 61.6% (52) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 20.3% (123) | 27.6% (94) |
| % of solo tackles | 79.1% (37) | 74.6% (70) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Middle Tennessee defense | Western Michigan defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 49.3% (126) | 62.9% (38) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 29.4% (106) | 34.0% (65) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 16.6% (50) | 17.8% (34) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 7.9% (98) | 8.5% (87) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 8.6% (10) | 8.9% (7) |
| PD to INC | 37.6% (28) | 39.4% (16) |
When Middle Tennessee has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Middle Tennessee Offense | Western Michigan Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 107.5 | 43 | 92.3 | 93 | Middle Tennessee |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 46.6 | 65 | 45.3 | 57 | |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.10 | 63 | 1.07 | 123 | Middle Tennessee big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.70 | 98 | 2.87 | 62 | Western Michigan |
| SD Sack Rate | 1% | 4 | 1.3% | 127 | Middle Tennessee big |
Passing Downs
| Middle Tennessee Offense | Western Michigan Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 130.5 | 11 | 93.8 | 88 | Middle Tennessee big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 37.9 | 14 | 35.0 | 110 | Middle Tennessee big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.92 | 29 | 1.73 | 56 | Middle Tennessee |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.62 | 109 | 3.76 | 116 | |
| PD Sack Rate | 4.3% | 15 | 5.9% | 90 | Middle Tennessee big |
When Western Michigan has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Western Michigan Offense | Middle Tennessee Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 111.3 | 30 | 88.4 | 113 | Western Michigan big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 46.0 | 71 | 46.4 | 67 | |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.26 | 12 | 1.31 | 51 | Western Michigan |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.94 | 60 | 2.56 | 24 | Middle Tennessee |
| SD Sack Rate | 8.1% | 115 | 4.4% | 89 | Middle Tennessee |
Passing Downs
| Western Michigan Offense | Middle Tennessee Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 126.1 | 15 | 89.9 | 98 | Western Michigan big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 36.7 | 20 | 30.6 | 65 | Western Michigan |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.84 | 47 | 1.72 | 58 | Western Michigan |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 4.03 | 7 | 3.50 | 93 | Western Michigan big |
| PD Sack Rate | 7% | 60 | 3.2% | 123 | Western Michigan big |
Individual Passing Stats
| Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate | Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| Middle Tennessee | Brent Stockstill | 6'0, 200 | FR | 301 | 451 | 3678 | 27 | 8 | 66.7% | 14 | 3.0% | 7.6 |
| Middle Tennessee | Austin Grammer | 6'2, 204 | JR | 6 | 9 | 45 | 1 | 1 | 66.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 5.0 |
| Middle Tennessee | Nolan Genovese | 6'0, 215 | SR | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 2.0 |
| Western Michigan | Zach Terrell | 6'1, 204 | JR | 244 | 365 | 3229 | 27 | 8 | 66.8% | 29 | 7.4% | 7.8 |
| Western Michigan | Tom Flacco | 6'1, 185 | FR | 9 | 11 | 154 | 1 | 0 | 81.8% | 0 | 0.0% | 14.0 |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry | Hlt Yds/ Opp. | Opp. Rate |
| Middle Tennessee | Shane Tucker | RB | 6'0, 204 | JR | 117 | 383 | 2 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 29.1% |
| Middle Tennessee | Jordan Parker | RB | 6'1, 214 | SR | 101 | 468 | 6 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 35.6% |
| Middle Tennessee | Desmond Anderson | RB | 5'10, 174 | FR | 83 | 378 | 4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 43.4% |
| Middle Tennessee | Jeremiah Bryson | RB | 5'8, 192 | SR | 46 | 198 | 3 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 34.8% |
| Western Michigan | Jarvion Franklin | RB | 6'0, 220 | SO | 146 | 699 | 5 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 33.6% |
| Western Michigan | Jamauri Bogan | RB | 5'7, 174 | FR | 143 | 836 | 12 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 35.0% |
| Western Michigan | LeVante Bellamy | WR | 5'11, 185 | FR | 72 | 469 | 2 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 50.0% |
| Western Michigan | Zach Terrell | QB | 6'1, 204 | JR | 45 | 261 | 3 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 51.1% |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Individual Receiving Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch | Yds/ Target | Catch Rate |
| Middle Tennessee | Richie James | WR | 5'9, 171 | FR | 133 | 100 | 1220 | 6 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 75.2% |
| Middle Tennessee | Ed'Marques Batties | WR | 6'0, 198 | SR | 124 | 77 | 960 | 13 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 62.1% |
| Middle Tennessee | Terry Pettis | TE | 6'5, 228 | JR | 43 | 28 | 593 | 4 | 21.2 | 13.8 | 65.1% |
| Middle Tennessee | Demetrius Frazier | WR | 5'10, 198 | JR | 29 | 25 | 180 | 1 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 86.2% |
| Middle Tennessee | Shane Tucker | RB | 6'0, 204 | JR | 25 | 13 | 126 | 1 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 52.0% |
| Middle Tennessee | Rod Ducksworth | WR | 6'0, 167 | JR | 23 | 12 | 159 | 1 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 52.2% |
| Middle Tennessee | Christian Collis | WR | 6'0, 211 | SR | 19 | 14 | 168 | 1 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 73.7% |
| Western Michigan | Daniel Braverman | WR | 5'10, 177 | JR | 134 | 104 | 1270 | 12 | 12.2 | 9.5 | 77.6% |
| Western Michigan | Corey Davis | WR | 6'3, 205 | JR | 130 | 83 | 1263 | 11 | 15.2 | 9.7 | 63.8% |
| Western Michigan | Michael Henry | WR | 5'11, 186 | JR | 25 | 17 | 241 | 1 | 14.2 | 9.6 | 68.0% |
| Western Michigan | Jarvion Franklin | RB | 6'0, 220 | SO | 21 | 16 | 177 | 0 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 76.2% |
| Western Michigan | Kendrick Roberts | WR | 6'3, 209 | SR | 19 | 12 | 196 | 0 | 16.3 | 10.3 | 63.2% |
| Western Michigan | Carrington Thompson | WR | 6'2, 162 | JR | 14 | 8 | 89 | 2 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 57.1% |
| Western Michigan | LeVante Bellamy | WR | 5'11, 185 | FR | 5 | 3 | 66 | 0 | 22.0 | 13.2 | 60.0% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| Middle Tennessee | T.T. Barber | LB | 6'1, 233 | SR | 75.5 | 10.6% | 11.5 | 4.0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Middle Tennessee | Quay Watt | S | 6'0, 204 | SR | 57.5 | 8.1% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Middle Tennessee | Cavellis Luckett | LB | 6'0, 241 | SR | 54.0 | 7.6% | 5.0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Middle Tennessee | Kevin Byard | S | 5'11, 215 | SR | 51.0 | 7.2% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Middle Tennessee | Michael Minter | CB | 6'0, 184 | SO | 45.0 | 6.3% | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
| Middle Tennessee | Trey Wafford | LB | 5'10, 203 | SR | 39.5 | 5.6% | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Middle Tennessee | D.J. Sanders | LB | 6'0, 213 | SO | 32.0 | 4.5% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Middle Tennessee | Darius Harris | LB | 6'2, 224 | FR | 31.5 | 4.4% | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Middle Tennessee | Steven Rhodes | DE | 6'3, 248 | JR | 27.0 | 3.8% | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Middle Tennessee | Jeremy Cutrer | CB | 6'2, 170 | JR | 26.5 | 3.7% | 3.0 | 1.0 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| Middle Tennessee | Chris Hale | DE | 6'4, 266 | JR | 23.0 | 3.2% | 6.5 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Middle Tennessee | Xavier Walker | S | 6'4, 208 | SR | 20.5 | 2.9% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Middle Tennessee | Jamarcus Howard | CB | 6'0, 182 | SR | 20.0 | 2.8% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Western Michigan | Asantay Brown | S | 6'0, 198 | SO | 77.5 | 12.9% | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Western Michigan | Caleb Bailey | LB | 6'0, 236 | SO | 55.5 | 9.3% | 12.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Western Michigan | Rontavious Atkins | SS | 6'0, 207 | SR | 52.5 | 8.8% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Western Michigan | Austin Lewis | LB | 6'3, 230 | JR | 46.0 | 7.7% | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Western Michigan | Ronald Zamort | CB | 5'10, 174 | SR | 43.5 | 7.3% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
| Western Michigan | Darius Phillips | CB | 5'10, 184 | SO | 40.0 | 6.7% | 4.5 | 0.5 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 0 |
| Western Michigan | Robert Spillane | LB | 6'2, 235 | SO | 33.0 | 5.5% | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Western Michigan | Keion Adams | DE | 6'2, 261 | JR | 28.5 | 4.8% | 8.5 | 4.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Western Michigan | Grant DePalma | LB | 5'9, 218 | SR | 26.5 | 4.4% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Western Michigan | Jarrell McKinney | DE | 6'4, 241 | SR | 25.0 | 4.2% | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Western Michigan | Cleveland Smith | DL | 6'1, 262 | SR | 20.0 | 3.3% | 7.0 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Western Michigan | Jason Sylva | LB | 6'2, 230 | JR | 18.5 | 3.1% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Western Michigan | Nathan Braster | DL | 6'5, 258 | SO | 13.0 | 2.2% | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | ||||||||||||
Individual Special Teams Stats
| Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| Middle Tennessee | Trevor Owens | 6'2, 205 | FR | 31 | 36.2 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 35.5% |
| Middle Tennessee | Matt Bonadies | 6'1, 195 | FR | 26 | 40.6 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 46.2% |
| Western Michigan | J. Schroeder | 6'0, 203 | SR | 39 | 42.1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 51.3% |
| Western Michigan | Derrick Mitchell | 6'2, 203 | FR | 1 | 39.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches | Onside Att | Onside Success |
| Middle Tennessee | Canon Rooker | 5'11, 173 | SO | 72 | 60.7 | 18 | 25.0% | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Middle Tennessee | Trevor Owens | 6'2, 205 | FR | 1 | 46.0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Western Michigan | Derrick Mitchell | 6'2, 203 | FR | 80 | 62.3 | 31 | 38.8% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Western Michigan | J. Schroeder | 6'0, 203 | SR | 2 | 51.0 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| Middle Tennessee | Cody Clark | 6'1, 177 | JR | 52-52 | 11-15 | 73.3% |
| Western Michigan | Andrew Haldeman | 5'10, 180 | SR | 47-50 | 16-20 | 80.0% |
| Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Middle Tennessee | Jeremiah Bryson | 5'8, 192 | SR | 18 | 23.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Middle Tennessee | Desmond Anderson | 5'10, 174 | FR | 10 | 22.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Western Michigan | Darius Phillips | 5'10, 184 | SO | 32 | 23.4 | 1 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Western Michigan | LeVante Bellamy | 5'11, 185 | FR | 4 | 21.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 (1) |
| Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Middle Tennessee | Ed'Marques Batties | 6'0, 198 | SR | 17 | 4.1 | 0 | 19 | 0 (0) |
| Middle Tennessee | Jeremiah Bryson | 5'8, 192 | SR | 2 | 12.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 (0) |
| Western Michigan | Daniel Braverman | 5'10, 177 | JR | 9 | 9.3 | 0 | 8 | 1 (0) |
| Western Michigan | Darius Phillips | 5'10, 184 | SO | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
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