2015 Foster Farms Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Nebraska vs. UCLA
December 26 ( 9:15 PM ET, ESPN ), Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara
Spread: UCLA -7
S&P+ Projection: UCLA 33.5, Nebraska 27.9
Team Sites: Bruins Nation, Corn Nation
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
The Basics
| Category | UCLA | Nebraska | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 22 | 43 | ||
| Category | UCLA offense | Nebraska defense | Nebraska offense | UCLA defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.77 (37) | 5.49 (83) | 5.72 (43) | 4.71 (23) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 456.0 (29) | 397.6 (66) | 434.8 (40) | 395.9 (65) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.47 (47) | 2.04 (67) | 2.36 (55) | 1.92 (53) |
| Category | UCLA offense | Nebraska defense | Nebraska offense | UCLA defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 37.9 (23) | 26.3 (55) | 33.7 (36) | 25.0 (46) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 104.2 (64) | 110.2 (36) | 108.2 (43) | 104.0 (54) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 106.3 (47) | 95.8 (78) | 119.2 (25) | 118.1 (19) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 100.0 (73) | 100.3 (62) | 112.1 (29) | 106.5 (43) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 122.2 (20) | 99.5 (72) | 117.1 (34) | 130.7 (9) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 107.0 (52) | 103.2 (50) | 115.5 (32) | 120.8 (20) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 112.9 (34) | 110.4 (45) | 117.2 (30) | 114.4 (30) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 113.8 (36) | 91.3 (98) | 119.1 (25) | 109.5 (39) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 93.2 (100) | 94.0 (92) | 115.4 (20) | 115.1 (24) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
UCLA
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 7 offense vs. No. 106 defense)
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 2 offense vs. No. 89 defense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 3 offense vs. No. 85 defense)
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 28 offense vs. No. 90 defense)
- Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 24 offense vs. No. 79 defense)
Nebraska
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 5 defense vs. No. 74 offense)
- Run Stuffs (No. 55 offense vs. No. 123 defense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 15 offense vs. No. 81 defense)
- Run Stuffs (No. 33 defense vs. No. 90 offense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 2 defense vs. No. 50 offense)
Five Factors
| Category | UCLA offense | Nebraska defense | Nebraska offense | UCLA defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.29 (45) | 1.41 (116) | 1.32 (34) | 1.09 (4) |
| EFFICIENCY | 45.2% (28) | 37.8% (32) | 41.5% (72) | 41.5% (66) |
| FIELD POSITION | 28.0 (110) | 30.8 (90) | 30.4 (56) | 28.0 (30) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 5.3 (23) | 4.6 (55) | 4.6 (84) | 4.5 (51) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: UCLA 2.48 (48) Nebraska -0.89 (78) | ACTUAL UCLA 1 (60) Nebraska -13 (119) | ||
Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | UCLA offense | Nebraska offense |
| Adj. Pace | 3.5 (30) | 0.7 (52) |
| Plays per game | 79.0 (23) | 76.0 (48) |
| Possessions per game | 13.2 (60) | 13.8 (32) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 54.6% (95) | 59.2% (69) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 23.3% (118) | 26.0% (108) |
| % of solo tackles | 79.9% (26) | 69.7% (104) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | UCLA defense | Nebraska defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 57.6% (93) | 48.5% (127) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 30.7% (95) | 30.1% (101) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 15.6% (73) | 15.6% (72) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 10.4% (44) | 8.3% (94) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 4.9% (107) | 7.2% (32) |
| PD to INC | 41.3% (5) | 27.8% (105) |
When UCLA has the ball…
Standard Downs
| UCLA Offense | Nebraska Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 100.0 | 73 | 100.3 | 62 | Nebraska |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 47.5 | 58 | 41.5 | 21 | Nebraska |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.15 | 44 | 0.96 | 116 | UCLA big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.98 | 54 | 2.27 | 6 | Nebraska |
| SD Sack Rate | 0.9% | 2 | 4.4% | 89 | UCLA big |
Passing Downs
| UCLA Offense | Nebraska Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 122.2 | 20 | 99.5 | 72 | UCLA big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 40.2 | 5 | 30.9 | 70 | UCLA big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.68 | 88 | 1.58 | 65 | Nebraska |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.05 | 83 | 2.36 | 7 | Nebraska big |
| PD Sack Rate | 3.6% | 7 | 5% | 106 | UCLA big |
When Nebraska has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Nebraska Offense | UCLA Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 112.1 | 29 | 106.5 | 43 | Nebraska |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 45.5 | 85 | 48.3 | 83 | |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.18 | 34 | 1.28 | 6 | UCLA |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.07 | 38 | 2.97 | 81 | Nebraska |
| SD Sack Rate | 0.9% | 2 | 5.5% | 45 | Nebraska |
Passing Downs
| Nebraska Offense | UCLA Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 117.1 | 34 | 130.7 | 9 | UCLA |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 33.2 | 42 | 26.9 | 30 | UCLA |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.72 | 79 | 1.76 | 22 | UCLA big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.30 | 58 | 3.55 | 99 | Nebraska |
| PD Sack Rate | 6% | 44 | 6.1% | 86 | Nebraska |
Individual Passing Stats
| Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate | Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| UCLA | Josh Rosen | 6'4, 210 | FR | 266 | 447 | 3350 | 20 | 9 | 59.5% | 14 | 3.0% | 7.0 |
| UCLA | Jerry Neuheisel | 6'1, 200 | JR | 5 | 18 | 53 | 0 | 2 | 27.8% | 0 | 0.0% | 2.9 |
| UCLA | Mike Fafaul | 6'2, 210 | JR | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 10.5 |
| Nebraska | Tommy Armstrong Jr. | 6'1, 220 | JR | 210 | 383 | 2856 | 21 | 16 | 54.8% | 11 | 2.8% | 6.9 |
| Nebraska | Ryker Fyfe | 6'2, 210 | JR | 34 | 55 | 440 | 5 | 5 | 61.8% | 2 | 3.5% | 7.4 |
| Nebraska |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry | Hlt Yds/ Opp. | Opp. Rate |
| UCLA | Paul Perkins | RB | 5'11, 210 | JR | 227 | 1269 | 13 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 40.1% |
| UCLA | Soso Jamabo | RB | 6'3, 210 | FR | 66 | 403 | 4 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 43.9% |
| UCLA | Nate Starks | RB | 5'11, 210 | SO | 48 | 314 | 5 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 45.8% |
| UCLA | Bolu Olorunfunmi | RB | 5'10, 220 | FR | 34 | 200 | 0 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 44.1% |
| Nebraska | Terrell Newby | RB | 5'10, 200 | JR | 143 | 743 | 5 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 39.2% |
| Nebraska | Imani Cross | RB | 6'1, 240 | SR | 96 | 389 | 5 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 37.5% |
| Nebraska | Tommy Armstrong Jr. | QB | 6'1, 220 | JR | 78 | 446 | 6 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 39.7% |
| Nebraska | Andy Janovich | FB | 6'1, 230 | SR | 36 | 234 | 2 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 41.7% |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Individual Receiving Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch | Yds/ Target | Catch Rate |
| UCLA | Jordan Payton | WR | 6'1, 212 | SR | 116 | 75 | 1069 | 4 | 14.3 | 9.2 | 64.7% |
| UCLA | Thomas Duarte | WR | 6'3, 225 | JR | 83 | 49 | 820 | 10 | 16.7 | 9.9 | 59.0% |
| UCLA | Darren Andrews | WR | 5'10, 185 | SO | 55 | 37 | 405 | 1 | 11.0 | 7.4 | 67.3% |
| UCLA | Paul Perkins | RB | 5'11, 210 | JR | 38 | 27 | 234 | 1 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 71.1% |
| UCLA | Devin Fuller | WR | 6'0, 200 | SR | 32 | 24 | 259 | 3 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 75.0% |
| UCLA | Eldridge Massington | WR | 6'3, 210 | SO | 23 | 10 | 111 | 0 | 11.1 | 4.8 | 43.5% |
| UCLA | Kenneth Walker III | WR | 5'10, 180 | JR | 17 | 6 | 143 | 0 | 23.8 | 8.4 | 35.3% |
| Nebraska | Jordan Westerkamp | WR | 6'0, 195 | JR | 96 | 64 | 882 | 7 | 13.8 | 9.2 | 66.7% |
| Nebraska | Brandon Reilly | WR | 6'1, 195 | JR | 64 | 37 | 716 | 4 | 19.4 | 11.2 | 57.8% |
| Nebraska | Cethan Carter | TE | 6'4, 240 | JR | 45 | 22 | 297 | 2 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 48.9% |
| Nebraska | Stanley Morgan Jr. | WR | 6'0, 185 | FR | 38 | 23 | 273 | 2 | 11.9 | 7.2 | 60.5% |
| Nebraska | Alonzo Moore | WR | 6'2, 195 | JR | 37 | 23 | 382 | 6 | 16.6 | 10.3 | 62.2% |
| Nebraska | Terrell Newby | RB | 5'10, 200 | JR | 36 | 23 | 158 | 1 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 63.9% |
| Nebraska | Lane Hovey | WR | 6'4, 205 | JR | 24 | 12 | 158 | 1 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 50.0% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| UCLA | Jayon Brown | LB | 6'0, 220 | JR | 71.5 | 9.9% | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| UCLA | Kenny Clark | DL | 6'3, 310 | JR | 51.5 | 7.1% | 9.0 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| UCLA | Jaleel Wadood | DB | 5'10, 175 | SO | 51.5 | 7.1% | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| UCLA | Kenny Young | LB | 6'1, 235 | SO | 51.0 | 7.0% | 4.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| UCLA | Isaako Savaiinaea | LB | 6'2, 250 | JR | 48.5 | 6.7% | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| UCLA | Randall Goforth | DB | 5'10, 190 | JR | 48.0 | 6.6% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| UCLA | Aaron Wallace | LB | 6'3, 240 | SR | 42.5 | 5.9% | 12.0 | 7.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| UCLA | Marcus Rios | DB | 6'0, 185 | JR | 36.5 | 5.0% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| UCLA | Eli Ankou | DL | 6'3, 305 | JR | 31.5 | 4.3% | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| UCLA | Takkarist McKinley | DL | 6'2, 250 | JR | 29.5 | 4.1% | 7.5 | 4.5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| UCLA | Tahaan Goodman | DB | 6'2, 195 | JR | 29.0 | 4.0% | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| UCLA | Jacob Tuioti-Mariner | DL | 6'2, 275 | SO | 26.0 | 3.6% | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| UCLA | Matt Dickerson | DL | 6'4, 275 | SO | 25.0 | 3.5% | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Nebraska | Nate Gerry | S | 6'2, 205 | JR | 60.5 | 10.3% | 1.5 | 1.0 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Nebraska | Joshua Kalu | CB | 6'1, 185 | SO | 55.5 | 9.5% | 5.0 | 1.0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Nebraska | Byerson Cockrell | S | 6'0, 185 | SR | 50.0 | 8.5% | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Nebraska | Josh Banderas | LB | 6'2, 235 | JR | 45.5 | 7.8% | 6.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nebraska | Dedrick Young | LB | 6'1, 220 | FR | 41.5 | 7.1% | 3.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Nebraska | Jonathan Rose | CB | 6'1, 195 | SR | 36.0 | 6.1% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Nebraska | Chris Weber | LB | 6'3, 220 | SO | 33.0 | 5.6% | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Nebraska | Marcus Newby | LB | 6'1, 235 | SO | 25.5 | 4.4% | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Nebraska | Maliek Collins | DT | 6'2, 300 | JR | 21.5 | 3.7% | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nebraska | Chris Jones | DB | 6'0, 180 | SO | 21.0 | 3.6% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Nebraska | Greg McMullen | DE | 6'3, 280 | JR | 19.0 | 3.2% | 5.5 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Nebraska | Ross Dzuris | DE | 6'3, 250 | JR | 18.0 | 3.1% | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nebraska | Aaron Williams | S | 5'11, 185 | FR | 17.5 | 3.0% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | ||||||||||||
Individual Special Teams Stats
| Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| UCLA | Matt Mengel | 6'2, 210 | SR | 50 | 39.9 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 68.0% |
| UCLA | Adam Searl | 6'0, 185 | SO | 5 | 39.0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 80.0% |
| Nebraska | Sam Foltz | 6'1, 200 | JR | 53 | 44.4 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 41.5% |
| Nebraska | Tyson Broekemeier | 6'1, 200 | SR | 5 | 37.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 80.0% |
| Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches | Onside Att | Onside Success |
| UCLA | Ka'imi Fairbairn | 6'0, 190 | SR | 79 | 64.6 | 56 | 70.9% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nebraska | Drew Brown | 5'11, 180 | SO | 72 | 60.7 | 31 | 43.1% | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| Nebraska | Spencer Lindsay | 5'9, 205 | JR | 1 | 65.0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| UCLA | Ka'imi Fairbairn | 6'0, 190 | SR | 44-44 | 20-23 | 87.0% |
| Nebraska | Drew Brown | 5'11, 180 | SO | 40-41 | 20-26 | 76.9% |
| Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| UCLA | Devin Fuller | 6'0, 200 | SR | 17 | 24.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| UCLA | Roosevelt Davis | 5'7, 165 | SR | 8 | 24.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Nebraska | Stanley Morgan Jr. | 6'0, 185 | FR | 12 | 24.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Nebraska | Jordan Stevenson | 5'9, 205 | FR | 6 | 14.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| UCLA | Devin Fuller | 6'0, 200 | SR | 12 | 11.8 | 0 | 12 | 0 (0) |
| UCLA | Ishmael Adams | 5'8, 180 | JR | 4 | 5.3 | 0 | 6 | 2 (1) |
| Nebraska | Jordan Westerkamp | 6'0, 195 | JR | 5 | 10.6 | 0 | 20 | 0 (0) |
| Nebraska | De'Mornay Pierson-El | 5'9, 185 | SO | 4 | 12.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 (1) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
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