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2015 Texas Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Texas Tech vs. LSU

AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl

No. 20 LSU Tigers (8-3) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5)

December 29 ( 9:00 PM ET, ESPN ), NRG Stadium, Houston
Spread: LSU -7
S&P+ Projection: LSU 41.6, Texas Tech 30.6
Team Sites: And The Valley Shook, Viva The Matadors

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Statistical profiles index.

Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category LSU Texas Tech
S&P+ (Rk) 10 55
Category LSU offense Texas Tech defense Texas Tech offense LSU defense
Yards per play (Rk) 6.03 (30) 6.57 (120) 6.78 (6) 5.08 (45)
Yards per game (Rk) 410.9 (55) 545.6 (127) 585.1 (2) 344.7 (28)
Points per possession (Rk) 2.52 (42) 2.95 (119) 3.23 (7) 2.00 (58)
Category LSU offense Texas Tech defense Texas Tech offense LSU defense
S&P+ (Rk) 38.9 (16) 38.8 (118) 44.8 (1) 21.9 (27)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 125.2 (7) 80.1 (124) 129.8 (1) 105.1 (50)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 112.6 (37) 94.7 (84) 118.0 (27) 124.9 (12)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 116.0 (17) 90.6 (104) 115.0 (22) 111.6 (32)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 119.4 (27) 80.7 (117) 145.2 (4) 130.1 (10)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 119.2 (23) 93.9 (88) 127.2 (10) 149.2 (3)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 110.2 (45) 84.2 (113) 130.4 (8) 117.6 (23)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 127.1 (13) 102.2 (64) 113.9 (35) 89.3 (106)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 116.8 (18) 78.3 (126) 126.5 (6) 117.7 (20)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

LSU

  1. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 4 offense vs. No. 126 defense)
  2. Rushing S&P+ (No. 7 offense vs. No. 124 defense)
  3. Second Down S&P+ (No. 7 offense vs. No. 111 defense)
  4. Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 15 offense vs. No. 117 defense)
  5. Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 17 offense vs. No. 116 defense)

Texas Tech

  1. Run Stuffs (No. 2 offense vs. No. 100 defense)
  2. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 1 offense vs. No. 98 defense)
  3. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 8 offense vs. No. 66 defense)
  4. Rushing S&P+ (No. 1 offense vs. No. 50 defense)
  5. Adj. Line Yards (No. 3 offense vs. No. 43 defense)
Five Factors
Category LSU offense Texas Tech defense Texas Tech offense LSU defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.37 (19) 1.28 (78) 1.39 (14) 1.21 (37)
EFFICIENCY 43.6% (43) 49.9% (126) 49.5% (7) 40.7% (65)
FIELD POSITION 28.9 (93) 29.3 (57) 29.6 (75) 30.1 (74)
FINISHING DRIVES 5.0 (42) 5.7 (126) 5.5 (8) 4.8 (81)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
LSU 2.71 (44)
Texas Tech 7.17 (16)
ACTUAL
LSU 7 (25)
Texas Tech 2 (52)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) LSU offense Texas Tech offense
Adj. Pace -3.2 (91) 9.7 (7)
Plays per game 68.2 (110) 86.3 (3)
Possessions per game 12.2 (115) 14.4 (10)
Std. Downs Run Rate 74.4% (10) 50.0% (114)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 42.4% (20) 26.7% (103)
% of solo tackles 59.1% (127) 86.5% (3)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) LSU defense Texas Tech defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 53.6% (119) 64.5% (29)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 26.6% (120) 29.6% (105)
Overall Havoc Rate 17.3% (42) 14.8% (89)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 10.6% (38) 7.3% (111)
DB Havoc Rate 6.5% (61) 7.5% (25)
PD to INC 31.6% (74) 39.5% (15)

When LSU has the ball…

Standard Downs
LSU Offense Texas Tech Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 116.0 17 90.6 104 LSU big
Standard Downs Success Rate 50.5 28 54.8 126 LSU big
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.14 46 1.03 80 LSU
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.22 21 3.39 121 LSU big
SD Sack Rate 6.4% 93 3.4% 107 LSU
Passing Downs
LSU Offense Texas Tech Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 119.4 27 80.7 117 LSU big
Passing Downs Success Rate 28.8 81 37.8 120 LSU
Passing Downs IsoPPP 2.22 3 1.91 87 LSU big
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.32 54 3.96 125 LSU big
PD Sack Rate 8.8% 90 7.3% 65 Texas Tech

When Texas Tech has the ball…

Standard Downs
Texas Tech Offense LSU Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 115.0 22 111.6 32
Standard Downs Success Rate 54.0 9 48.1 82 Texas Tech big
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.12 56 1.13 37 LSU
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.63 3 3.08 94 Texas Tech big
SD Sack Rate 3.1% 30 6.3% 24
Passing Downs
Texas Tech Offense LSU Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 145.2 4 130.1 10
Passing Downs Success Rate 39.2 10 25.0 20
Passing Downs IsoPPP 2.24 2 1.84 108 Texas Tech big
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.91 11 3.02 49 Texas Tech
PD Sack Rate 4.8% 24 7.8% 54 Texas Tech
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
LSU Brandon Harris 6'3, 206 SO 135 254 1904 12 5 53.1% 17 6.3% 6.6
Texas Tech Patrick Mahomes II 6'3, 219 SO 336 517 4283 32 14 65.0% 21 3.9% 7.7
Texas Tech Davis Webb 6'5, 224 JR 22 41 300 2 0 53.7% 0 0.0% 7.3
Texas Tech Nic Shimonek 6'3, 210 SO 1 2 18 0 0 50.0% 0 0.0% 9.0
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
LSU Leonard Fournette RB 6'1, 230 SO 275 1745 18 6.3 6.8 44.0%
LSU Darrel Williams RB 6'0, 232 SO 58 290 3 5.0 3.7 41.4%
LSU Brandon Harris QB 6'3, 206 SO 51 286 3 5.6 7.6 43.1%
LSU Derrius Guice RB 5'11, 222 FR 47 397 3 8.4 10.2 46.8%
Texas Tech DeAndre Washington RB 5'8, 200 SR 223 1455 14 6.5 6.2 43.9%
Texas Tech Patrick Mahomes II QB 6'3, 219 SO 97 601 10 6.2 3.8 51.5%
Texas Tech Justin Stockton RB 5'10, 192 SO 59 347 5 5.9 5.6 45.8%
Texas Tech Quinton White RB 5'7, 209 JR 9 29 0 3.2 1.4 44.4%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
LSU Malachi Dupre WR 6'3, 190 SO 69 39 602 6 15.4 8.7 56.5%
LSU Travin Dural WR 6'2, 203 JR 56 28 533 3 19.0 9.5 50.0%
LSU Leonard Fournette RB 6'1, 230 SO 31 18 209 0 11.6 6.7 58.1%
LSU John Diarse WR 6'1, 209 SO 23 9 92 0 10.2 4.0 39.1%
LSU Tyron Johnson WR 6'1, 189 FR 18 9 150 2 16.7 8.3 50.0%
LSU Colin Jeter TE 6'7, 244 JR 17 11 123 1 11.2 7.2 64.7%
LSU DeSean Smith TE 6'5, 243 JR 6 4 82 0 20.5 13.7 66.7%
Texas Tech Jakeem Grant WR 5'7, 168 SR 111 80 1138 7 14.2 10.3 72.1%
Texas Tech Devin Lauderdale WR 5'10, 176 JR 68 43 633 4 14.7 9.3 63.2%
Texas Tech Reginald Davis WR 6'0, 188 JR 65 36 499 7 13.9 7.7 55.4%
Texas Tech Ian Sadler WR 5'11, 197 SO 55 39 551 3 14.1 10.0 70.9%
Texas Tech DeAndre Washington RB 5'8, 200 SR 47 34 320 2 9.4 6.8 72.3%
Texas Tech Cameron Batson WR 5'9, 173 SO 34 26 280 1 10.8 8.2 76.5%
Texas Tech Zach Austin WR 5'11, 187 SO 30 22 238 1 10.8 7.9 73.3%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
LSU Deion Jones LB 6'1, 227 SR 72.0 12.5% 11.5 4.0 2 3 0 0
LSU Kendell Beckwith LB 6'2, 252 JR 60.5 10.5% 6.0 1.0 0 1 2 0
LSU Jamal Adams S 6'1, 211 SO 50.5 8.8% 5.0 0.0 4 5 1 0
LSU Lewis Neal DE 6'2, 264 JR 35.5 6.2% 9.5 8.0 0 6 1 0
LSU Tre'Davious White CB 5'11, 191 JR 32.0 5.6% 1.0 0.0 0 6 0 0
LSU Dwayne Thomas DB 6'0, 186 JR 29.0 5.0% 3.0 0.0 0 6 0 0
LSU Arden Key DE 6'6, 231 FR 27.5 4.8% 6.5 5.0 0 1 0 0
LSU Jalen Mills S 6'0, 196 SR 27.5 4.8% 1.0 1.0 0 2 0 0
LSU Kevin Toliver II CB 6'2, 196 FR 25.0 4.3% 2.0 0.0 1 3 0 0
LSU Rickey Jefferson S 6'0, 206 JR 24.0 4.2% 1.0 1.0 0 3 0 0
LSU Davon Godchaux DT 6'4, 293 SO 23.5 4.1% 7.0 4.0 0 1 0 0
LSU Christian LaCouture DT 6'5, 307 JR 21.0 3.7% 2.5 1.0 0 1 1 0
LSU Lamar Louis LB 5'11, 232 SR 20.0 3.5% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Texas Tech Micah Awe LB 6'0, 221 SR 89.5 11.6% 5.5 0.0 0 2 1 0
Texas Tech J.J. Gaines DB 6'0, 179 SR 65.0 8.4% 4.5 1.0 4 4 2 0
Texas Tech Dakota Allen LB 6'2, 224 FR 64.0 8.3% 6.0 0.0 1 1 0 0
Texas Tech Jah'Shawn Johnson DB 5'10, 176 FR 60.5 7.8% 4.5 0.0 2 2 2 2
Texas Tech Pete Robertson LB 6'3, 239 SR 49.5 6.4% 13.5 5.0 0 2 2 0
Texas Tech Tevin Madison DB 5'10, 166 SO 49.0 6.3% 2.0 1.0 2 10 2 0
Texas Tech Keenon Ward DB 5'9, 200 JR 47.5 6.2% 1.0 0.0 0 4 0 0
Texas Tech D'Vonta Hinton LB 5'9, 225 FR 41.0 5.3% 5.5 2.0 0 0 1 0
Texas Tech Justis Nelson DB 6'2, 173 JR 37.0 4.8% 1.0 0.0 2 4 0 0
Texas Tech Nigel Bethel II DB 5'9, 187 SO 36.0 4.7% 0.5 0.0 1 10 0 0
Texas Tech Malik Jenkins LB 6'1, 220 JR 35.5 4.6% 4.0 0.0 0 2 1 0
Texas Tech Branden Jackson DL 6'4, 272 SR 26.0 3.4% 4.5 2.0 0 1 1 0
Texas Tech Thierry Nguema DB 5'10, 170 JR 24.5 3.2% 0.0 0.0 1 3 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
LSU Jamie Keehn 6'5, 231 SR 54 40.9 5 18 17 64.8%
Texas Tech Taylor Symmank 6'3, 193 SR 25 44.7 3 4 5 36.0%
Texas Tech Michael Barden 5'10, 174 FR 16 44.8 1 4 3 43.8%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
LSU Cameron Gamble 5'10, 197 SO 34 60.7 5 14.7% 0 2 0 0
LSU Trent Domingue 6'2, 170 JR 32 58.4 7 21.9% 0 2 0 0
Texas Tech Clayton Hatfield 5'10, 171 FR 65 61.7 29 44.6% 2 4 0 0
Texas Tech Taylor Symmank 6'3, 193 SR 37 64.5 27 73.0% 0 0 0 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
LSU Trent Domingue 6'2, 170 JR 41-42 13-17 76.5%
Texas Tech Clayton Hatfield 5'10, 171 FR 50-51 14-16 87.5%
Texas Tech Michael Barden 5'10, 174 FR 19-19 2-3 66.7%
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
LSU Derrius Guice 5'11, 222 FR 17 23.2 0 0 0 (0)
LSU Donte Jackson 5'11, 167 FR 8 20.5 0 0 0 (0)
Texas Tech Jakeem Grant 5'7, 168 SR 36 26.6 2 0 0 (0)
Texas Tech Cameron Batson 5'9, 173 SO 2 8.0 0 0 0 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
LSU Tre'Davious White 5'11, 191 JR 14 12.2 1 13 2 (1)
LSU Donte Jackson 5'11, 167 FR 4 1.5 0 2 0 (0)
Texas Tech Cameron Batson 5'9, 173 SO 13 6.2 0 11 0 (0)
Texas Tech Ian Sadler 5'11, 197 SO 1 7.0 0 0 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics

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