2015 Texas Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Texas Tech vs. LSU


Crystal LoGiudice-USA TODAY Sports
December 29 ( 9:00 PM ET, ESPN ), NRG Stadium, Houston
Spread: LSU -7
S&P+ Projection: LSU 41.6, Texas Tech 30.6
Team Sites: And The Valley Shook, Viva The Matadors
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
The Basics
| Category | LSU | Texas Tech | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 10 | 55 | ||
| Category | LSU offense | Texas Tech defense | Texas Tech offense | LSU defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 6.03 (30) | 6.57 (120) | 6.78 (6) | 5.08 (45) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 410.9 (55) | 545.6 (127) | 585.1 (2) | 344.7 (28) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.52 (42) | 2.95 (119) | 3.23 (7) | 2.00 (58) |
| Category | LSU offense | Texas Tech defense | Texas Tech offense | LSU defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 38.9 (16) | 38.8 (118) | 44.8 (1) | 21.9 (27) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 125.2 (7) | 80.1 (124) | 129.8 (1) | 105.1 (50) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 112.6 (37) | 94.7 (84) | 118.0 (27) | 124.9 (12) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 116.0 (17) | 90.6 (104) | 115.0 (22) | 111.6 (32) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 119.4 (27) | 80.7 (117) | 145.2 (4) | 130.1 (10) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 119.2 (23) | 93.9 (88) | 127.2 (10) | 149.2 (3) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 110.2 (45) | 84.2 (113) | 130.4 (8) | 117.6 (23) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 127.1 (13) | 102.2 (64) | 113.9 (35) | 89.3 (106) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 116.8 (18) | 78.3 (126) | 126.5 (6) | 117.7 (20) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
LSU
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 4 offense vs. No. 126 defense)
- Rushing S&P+ (No. 7 offense vs. No. 124 defense)
- Second Down S&P+ (No. 7 offense vs. No. 111 defense)
- Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 15 offense vs. No. 117 defense)
- Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 17 offense vs. No. 116 defense)
Texas Tech
- Run Stuffs (No. 2 offense vs. No. 100 defense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 1 offense vs. No. 98 defense)
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 8 offense vs. No. 66 defense)
- Rushing S&P+ (No. 1 offense vs. No. 50 defense)
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 3 offense vs. No. 43 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | LSU offense | Texas Tech defense | Texas Tech offense | LSU defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.37 (19) | 1.28 (78) | 1.39 (14) | 1.21 (37) |
| EFFICIENCY | 43.6% (43) | 49.9% (126) | 49.5% (7) | 40.7% (65) |
| FIELD POSITION | 28.9 (93) | 29.3 (57) | 29.6 (75) | 30.1 (74) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 5.0 (42) | 5.7 (126) | 5.5 (8) | 4.8 (81) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: LSU 2.71 (44) Texas Tech 7.17 (16) | ACTUAL LSU 7 (25) Texas Tech 2 (52) | ||
Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | LSU offense | Texas Tech offense |
| Adj. Pace | -3.2 (91) | 9.7 (7) |
| Plays per game | 68.2 (110) | 86.3 (3) |
| Possessions per game | 12.2 (115) | 14.4 (10) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 74.4% (10) | 50.0% (114) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 42.4% (20) | 26.7% (103) |
| % of solo tackles | 59.1% (127) | 86.5% (3) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | LSU defense | Texas Tech defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 53.6% (119) | 64.5% (29) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 26.6% (120) | 29.6% (105) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 17.3% (42) | 14.8% (89) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 10.6% (38) | 7.3% (111) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 6.5% (61) | 7.5% (25) |
| PD to INC | 31.6% (74) | 39.5% (15) |
When LSU has the ball…
Standard Downs
| LSU Offense | Texas Tech Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 116.0 | 17 | 90.6 | 104 | LSU big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 50.5 | 28 | 54.8 | 126 | LSU big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.14 | 46 | 1.03 | 80 | LSU |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.22 | 21 | 3.39 | 121 | LSU big |
| SD Sack Rate | 6.4% | 93 | 3.4% | 107 | LSU |
Passing Downs
| LSU Offense | Texas Tech Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 119.4 | 27 | 80.7 | 117 | LSU big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 28.8 | 81 | 37.8 | 120 | LSU |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.22 | 3 | 1.91 | 87 | LSU big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.32 | 54 | 3.96 | 125 | LSU big |
| PD Sack Rate | 8.8% | 90 | 7.3% | 65 | Texas Tech |
When Texas Tech has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Texas Tech Offense | LSU Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 115.0 | 22 | 111.6 | 32 | |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 54.0 | 9 | 48.1 | 82 | Texas Tech big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.12 | 56 | 1.13 | 37 | LSU |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.63 | 3 | 3.08 | 94 | Texas Tech big |
| SD Sack Rate | 3.1% | 30 | 6.3% | 24 | |
Passing Downs
| Texas Tech Offense | LSU Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 145.2 | 4 | 130.1 | 10 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 39.2 | 10 | 25.0 | 20 | |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.24 | 2 | 1.84 | 108 | Texas Tech big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.91 | 11 | 3.02 | 49 | Texas Tech |
| PD Sack Rate | 4.8% | 24 | 7.8% | 54 | Texas Tech |
Individual Passing Stats
| Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate | Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| LSU | Brandon Harris | 6'3, 206 | SO | 135 | 254 | 1904 | 12 | 5 | 53.1% | 17 | 6.3% | 6.6 |
| Texas Tech | Patrick Mahomes II | 6'3, 219 | SO | 336 | 517 | 4283 | 32 | 14 | 65.0% | 21 | 3.9% | 7.7 |
| Texas Tech | Davis Webb | 6'5, 224 | JR | 22 | 41 | 300 | 2 | 0 | 53.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 7.3 |
| Texas Tech | Nic Shimonek | 6'3, 210 | SO | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 50.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 9.0 |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry | Hlt Yds/ Opp. | Opp. Rate |
| LSU | Leonard Fournette | RB | 6'1, 230 | SO | 275 | 1745 | 18 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 44.0% |
| LSU | Darrel Williams | RB | 6'0, 232 | SO | 58 | 290 | 3 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 41.4% |
| LSU | Brandon Harris | QB | 6'3, 206 | SO | 51 | 286 | 3 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 43.1% |
| LSU | Derrius Guice | RB | 5'11, 222 | FR | 47 | 397 | 3 | 8.4 | 10.2 | 46.8% |
| Texas Tech | DeAndre Washington | RB | 5'8, 200 | SR | 223 | 1455 | 14 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 43.9% |
| Texas Tech | Patrick Mahomes II | QB | 6'3, 219 | SO | 97 | 601 | 10 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 51.5% |
| Texas Tech | Justin Stockton | RB | 5'10, 192 | SO | 59 | 347 | 5 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 45.8% |
| Texas Tech | Quinton White | RB | 5'7, 209 | JR | 9 | 29 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 44.4% |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Individual Receiving Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch | Yds/ Target | Catch Rate |
| LSU | Malachi Dupre | WR | 6'3, 190 | SO | 69 | 39 | 602 | 6 | 15.4 | 8.7 | 56.5% |
| LSU | Travin Dural | WR | 6'2, 203 | JR | 56 | 28 | 533 | 3 | 19.0 | 9.5 | 50.0% |
| LSU | Leonard Fournette | RB | 6'1, 230 | SO | 31 | 18 | 209 | 0 | 11.6 | 6.7 | 58.1% |
| LSU | John Diarse | WR | 6'1, 209 | SO | 23 | 9 | 92 | 0 | 10.2 | 4.0 | 39.1% |
| LSU | Tyron Johnson | WR | 6'1, 189 | FR | 18 | 9 | 150 | 2 | 16.7 | 8.3 | 50.0% |
| LSU | Colin Jeter | TE | 6'7, 244 | JR | 17 | 11 | 123 | 1 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 64.7% |
| LSU | DeSean Smith | TE | 6'5, 243 | JR | 6 | 4 | 82 | 0 | 20.5 | 13.7 | 66.7% |
| Texas Tech | Jakeem Grant | WR | 5'7, 168 | SR | 111 | 80 | 1138 | 7 | 14.2 | 10.3 | 72.1% |
| Texas Tech | Devin Lauderdale | WR | 5'10, 176 | JR | 68 | 43 | 633 | 4 | 14.7 | 9.3 | 63.2% |
| Texas Tech | Reginald Davis | WR | 6'0, 188 | JR | 65 | 36 | 499 | 7 | 13.9 | 7.7 | 55.4% |
| Texas Tech | Ian Sadler | WR | 5'11, 197 | SO | 55 | 39 | 551 | 3 | 14.1 | 10.0 | 70.9% |
| Texas Tech | DeAndre Washington | RB | 5'8, 200 | SR | 47 | 34 | 320 | 2 | 9.4 | 6.8 | 72.3% |
| Texas Tech | Cameron Batson | WR | 5'9, 173 | SO | 34 | 26 | 280 | 1 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 76.5% |
| Texas Tech | Zach Austin | WR | 5'11, 187 | SO | 30 | 22 | 238 | 1 | 10.8 | 7.9 | 73.3% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| LSU | Deion Jones | LB | 6'1, 227 | SR | 72.0 | 12.5% | 11.5 | 4.0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| LSU | Kendell Beckwith | LB | 6'2, 252 | JR | 60.5 | 10.5% | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| LSU | Jamal Adams | S | 6'1, 211 | SO | 50.5 | 8.8% | 5.0 | 0.0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| LSU | Lewis Neal | DE | 6'2, 264 | JR | 35.5 | 6.2% | 9.5 | 8.0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| LSU | Tre'Davious White | CB | 5'11, 191 | JR | 32.0 | 5.6% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| LSU | Dwayne Thomas | DB | 6'0, 186 | JR | 29.0 | 5.0% | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| LSU | Arden Key | DE | 6'6, 231 | FR | 27.5 | 4.8% | 6.5 | 5.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| LSU | Jalen Mills | S | 6'0, 196 | SR | 27.5 | 4.8% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| LSU | Kevin Toliver II | CB | 6'2, 196 | FR | 25.0 | 4.3% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| LSU | Rickey Jefferson | S | 6'0, 206 | JR | 24.0 | 4.2% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| LSU | Davon Godchaux | DT | 6'4, 293 | SO | 23.5 | 4.1% | 7.0 | 4.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| LSU | Christian LaCouture | DT | 6'5, 307 | JR | 21.0 | 3.7% | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| LSU | Lamar Louis | LB | 5'11, 232 | SR | 20.0 | 3.5% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas Tech | Micah Awe | LB | 6'0, 221 | SR | 89.5 | 11.6% | 5.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Texas Tech | J.J. Gaines | DB | 6'0, 179 | SR | 65.0 | 8.4% | 4.5 | 1.0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Texas Tech | Dakota Allen | LB | 6'2, 224 | FR | 64.0 | 8.3% | 6.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas Tech | Jah'Shawn Johnson | DB | 5'10, 176 | FR | 60.5 | 7.8% | 4.5 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Texas Tech | Pete Robertson | LB | 6'3, 239 | SR | 49.5 | 6.4% | 13.5 | 5.0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Texas Tech | Tevin Madison | DB | 5'10, 166 | SO | 49.0 | 6.3% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 0 |
| Texas Tech | Keenon Ward | DB | 5'9, 200 | JR | 47.5 | 6.2% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas Tech | D'Vonta Hinton | LB | 5'9, 225 | FR | 41.0 | 5.3% | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Texas Tech | Justis Nelson | DB | 6'2, 173 | JR | 37.0 | 4.8% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas Tech | Nigel Bethel II | DB | 5'9, 187 | SO | 36.0 | 4.7% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas Tech | Malik Jenkins | LB | 6'1, 220 | JR | 35.5 | 4.6% | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Texas Tech | Branden Jackson | DL | 6'4, 272 | SR | 26.0 | 3.4% | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Texas Tech | Thierry Nguema | DB | 5'10, 170 | JR | 24.5 | 3.2% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | ||||||||||||
Individual Special Teams Stats
| Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| LSU | Jamie Keehn | 6'5, 231 | SR | 54 | 40.9 | 5 | 18 | 17 | 64.8% |
| Texas Tech | Taylor Symmank | 6'3, 193 | SR | 25 | 44.7 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 36.0% |
| Texas Tech | Michael Barden | 5'10, 174 | FR | 16 | 44.8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 43.8% |
| Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches | Onside Att | Onside Success |
| LSU | Cameron Gamble | 5'10, 197 | SO | 34 | 60.7 | 5 | 14.7% | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| LSU | Trent Domingue | 6'2, 170 | JR | 32 | 58.4 | 7 | 21.9% | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas Tech | Clayton Hatfield | 5'10, 171 | FR | 65 | 61.7 | 29 | 44.6% | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas Tech | Taylor Symmank | 6'3, 193 | SR | 37 | 64.5 | 27 | 73.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| LSU | Trent Domingue | 6'2, 170 | JR | 41-42 | 13-17 | 76.5% |
| Texas Tech | Clayton Hatfield | 5'10, 171 | FR | 50-51 | 14-16 | 87.5% |
| Texas Tech | Michael Barden | 5'10, 174 | FR | 19-19 | 2-3 | 66.7% |
| Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| LSU | Derrius Guice | 5'11, 222 | FR | 17 | 23.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| LSU | Donte Jackson | 5'11, 167 | FR | 8 | 20.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Texas Tech | Jakeem Grant | 5'7, 168 | SR | 36 | 26.6 | 2 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Texas Tech | Cameron Batson | 5'9, 173 | SO | 2 | 8.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| LSU | Tre'Davious White | 5'11, 191 | JR | 14 | 12.2 | 1 | 13 | 2 (1) |
| LSU | Donte Jackson | 5'11, 167 | FR | 4 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 (0) |
| Texas Tech | Cameron Batson | 5'9, 173 | SO | 13 | 6.2 | 0 | 11 | 0 (0) |
| Texas Tech | Ian Sadler | 5'11, 197 | SO | 1 | 7.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
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