2015 Birmingham Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Memphis vs. Auburn
Derik Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
December 30 ( 12:00 PM ET, ESPN ), Legion Field, Birmingham
Spread: Auburn -2.5
S&P+ Projection: Memphis 32.7, Auburn 29.2
Team Sites: College And Magnolia, Underdog Dynasty (Memphis)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
The Basics
| Category | Auburn | Memphis | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 51 | 36 | ||
| Category | Auburn offense | Memphis defense | Memphis offense | Auburn defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.01 (98) | 5.52 (87) | 6.17 (24) | 5.31 (64) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 356.8 (101) | 425.2 (97) | 513.3 (12) | 420.3 (91) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.33 (59) | 1.91 (52) | 3.07 (11) | 2.33 (87) |
| Category | Auburn offense | Memphis defense | Memphis offense | Auburn defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 31.6 (47) | 28.6 (72) | 38.2 (21) | 25.4 (50) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 108.6 (40) | 107.4 (41) | 97.1 (88) | 104.2 (53) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 108.4 (41) | 94.4 (86) | 124.0 (18) | 105.5 (49) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 100.8 (66) | 98.2 (73) | 113.3 (27) | 105.1 (45) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 119.9 (24) | 105.1 (56) | 106.5 (49) | 107.6 (46) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 119.8 (22) | 104.3 (45) | 112.7 (39) | 95.6 (81) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 93.5 (97) | 115.6 (27) | 112.5 (37) | 111.7 (35) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 121.7 (21) | 102.2 (65) | 114.3 (34) | 98.9 (72) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 103.3 (68) | 107.3 (45) | 101.5 (77) | 116.1 (21) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Auburn
- Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 41 offense vs. No. 94 defense)
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 53 defense vs. No. 102 offense)
- Passing S&P+ (No. 41 offense vs. No. 86 defense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 33 offense vs. No. 77 defense)
- Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 10 offense vs. No. 51 defense)
Memphis
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 23 offense vs. No. 125 defense)
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 10 offense vs. No. 111 defense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 52 offense vs. No. 110 defense)
- Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 26 offense vs. No. 74 defense)
- Field Position (No. 38 offense vs. No. 84 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | Auburn offense | Memphis defense | Memphis offense | Auburn defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.11 (122) | 1.31 (92) | 1.30 (43) | 1.10 (8) |
| EFFICIENCY | 44.0% (39) | 42.4% (75) | 46.2% (20) | 46.4% (111) |
| FIELD POSITION | 30.9 (42) | 25.8 (4) | 31.1 (38) | 30.5 (84) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.9 (58) | 4.9 (93) | 5.6 (6) | 4.3 (38) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Auburn 3.30 (37) Memphis 4.97 (24) | ACTUAL Auburn 4 (40) Memphis 6 (30) | ||
Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Auburn offense | Memphis offense |
| Adj. Pace | -1.2 (70) | 8.6 (11) |
| Plays per game | 71.2 (87) | 83.2 (11) |
| Possessions per game | 11.7 (123) | 13.9 (23) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 75.8% (8) | 56.2% (86) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 28.6% (89) | 35.8% (47) |
| % of solo tackles | 68.3% (109) | 81.5% (17) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Auburn defense | Memphis defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 55.6% (109) | 58.9% (73) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 42.3% (6) | 33.0% (72) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 13.3% (111) | 13.8% (102) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 6.2% (121) | 8.1% (95) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 7.1% (36) | 5.4% (93) |
| PD to INC | 38.4% (22) | 26.3% (117) |
When Auburn has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Auburn Offense | Memphis Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 100.8 | 66 | 98.2 | 73 | |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 48.8 | 38 | 46.6 | 70 | Auburn |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 0.91 | 125 | 0.99 | 100 | Memphis |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.10 | 30 | 2.47 | 15 | Memphis |
| SD Sack Rate | 4.5% | 57 | 4.8% | 77 | Auburn |
Passing Downs
| Auburn Offense | Memphis Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 119.9 | 24 | 105.1 | 56 | Auburn |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 32.1 | 51 | 32.6 | 89 | Auburn |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.84 | 48 | 1.58 | 54 | |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.20 | 70 | 3.24 | 67 | |
| PD Sack Rate | 5.6% | 33 | 6.8% | 77 | Auburn |
When Memphis has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Memphis Offense | Auburn Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 113.3 | 27 | 105.1 | 45 | Memphis |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 51.0 | 24 | 51.4 | 111 | Memphis big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.19 | 29 | 1.18 | 16 | Auburn |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.72 | 93 | 3.16 | 105 | Memphis |
| SD Sack Rate | 1.7% | 10 | 3% | 111 | Memphis big |
Passing Downs
| Memphis Offense | Auburn Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 106.5 | 49 | 107.6 | 46 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 35.4 | 26 | 33.3 | 97 | Memphis big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.66 | 90 | 1.71 | 20 | Auburn big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.36 | 50 | 3.58 | 105 | Memphis big |
| PD Sack Rate | 6.5% | 52 | 4.7% | 110 | Memphis big |
Individual Passing Stats
| Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate | Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| Auburn | Jeremy Johnson | 6'5, 240 | JR | 94 | 156 | 1043 | 9 | 7 | 60.3% | 9 | 5.5% | 5.9 |
| Auburn | Sean White | 6'0, 200 | FR | 75 | 130 | 1064 | 1 | 2 | 57.7% | 10 | 7.1% | 7.0 |
| Memphis | Paxton Lynch | 6'7, 245 | JR | 280 | 407 | 3670 | 28 | 3 | 68.8% | 15 | 3.6% | 8.4 |
| Memphis | Clay Holgorsen | 6'1, 195 | FR | 14 | 20 | 177 | 1 | 1 | 70.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 8.9 |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry | Hlt Yds/ Opp. | Opp. Rate |
| Auburn | Peyton Barber | RB | 5'11, 225 | SO | 226 | 976 | 13 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 34.5% |
| Auburn | Jovon Robinson | RB | 6'0, 230 | JR | 90 | 513 | 2 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 46.7% |
| Auburn | Kerryon Johnson | RB | 6'0, 195 | FR | 46 | 184 | 2 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 39.1% |
| Auburn | Roc Thomas | RB | 5'10, 203 | SO | 38 | 232 | 1 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 39.5% |
| Memphis | Doroland Dorceus | RB | 5'10, 215 | SO | 144 | 613 | 8 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 37.5% |
| Memphis | Jarvis Cooper | RB | 6'1, 245 | SO | 87 | 363 | 5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 34.5% |
| Memphis | Sam Craft | ATH | 6'0, 210 | JR | 77 | 321 | 5 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 36.4% |
| Memphis | Paxton Lynch | QB | 6'7, 245 | JR | 67 | 345 | 2 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 41.8% |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Individual Receiving Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch | Yds/ Target | Catch Rate |
| Auburn | Ricardo Louis | WR | 6'2, 215 | SR | 81 | 45 | 699 | 3 | 15.5 | 8.6 | 55.6% |
| Auburn | Marcus Davis | WR | 5'9, 180 | JR | 35 | 28 | 174 | 1 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 80.0% |
| Auburn | Melvin Ray | WR | 6'3, 215 | SR | 33 | 18 | 229 | 2 | 12.7 | 6.9 | 54.5% |
| Auburn | Tony Stevens | WR | 6'4, 205 | JR | 22 | 12 | 152 | 1 | 12.7 | 6.9 | 54.5% |
| Auburn | D'haquille Williams | WR | 6'2, 224 | SR | 22 | 12 | 147 | 1 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 54.5% |
| Auburn | Kerryon Johnson | RB | 6'0, 195 | FR | 20 | 13 | 122 | 0 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 65.0% |
| Auburn | Jason Smith | WR | 6'1, 180 | SO | 19 | 12 | 192 | 1 | 16.0 | 10.1 | 63.2% |
| Memphis | Mose Frazier | WR | 5'11, 190 | SR | 87 | 67 | 784 | 4 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 77.0% |
| Memphis | Phil Mayhue | WR | 6'3, 210 | SO | 68 | 47 | 644 | 1 | 13.7 | 9.5 | 69.1% |
| Memphis | Anthony Miller | WR | 5'11, 190 | SO | 61 | 44 | 684 | 5 | 15.6 | 11.2 | 72.1% |
| Memphis | Alan Cross | TE | 6'1, 235 | SR | 39 | 24 | 229 | 3 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 61.5% |
| Memphis | Tevin Jones | WR | 6'2, 225 | SR | 36 | 19 | 300 | 4 | 15.8 | 8.3 | 52.8% |
| Memphis | Roderick Proctor | WR | 5'11, 175 | SO | 29 | 25 | 335 | 0 | 13.4 | 11.6 | 86.2% |
| Memphis | Jae'Lon Oglesby | WR | 5'11, 175 | FR | 25 | 20 | 167 | 1 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 80.0% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| Auburn | Johnathan Ford | DB | 6'0, 203 | JR | 89.5 | 13.1% | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Auburn | Kris Frost | LB | 6'2, 240 | SR | 61.0 | 9.0% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Auburn | Cassanova McKinzy | LB | 6'3, 253 | SR | 55.5 | 8.1% | 10.0 | 5.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Auburn | Jonathan Jones | DB | 5'10, 181 | SR | 55.5 | 8.1% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 0 |
| Auburn | Blake Countess | DB | 5'10, 185 | SR | 53.5 | 7.9% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Auburn | Tre' Williams | LB | 6'2, 238 | SO | 38.5 | 5.7% | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Auburn | Carlton Davis | DB | 6'1, 190 | FR | 38.5 | 5.7% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
| Auburn | Justin Garrett | LB | 6'1, 228 | SR | 34.5 | 5.1% | 2.5 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Auburn | Tray Matthews | DB | 6'1, 213 | SO | 34.5 | 5.1% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Auburn | Montravius Adams | DT | 6'4, 296 | JR | 29.0 | 4.3% | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Auburn | Dontavius Russell | DL | 6'3, 295 | FR | 25.0 | 3.7% | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Auburn | Devaroe Lawrence | DL | 6'2, 281 | JR | 20.0 | 2.9% | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Auburn | Nick Ruffin | DB | 6'0, 191 | SO | 20.0 | 2.9% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Memphis | Leonard Pegues | LB | 5'11, 240 | SR | 53.5 | 8.0% | 7.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Memphis | Wynton McManis | LB | 6'1, 225 | SR | 52.5 | 7.9% | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Memphis | Genard Avery | LB | 6'1, 255 | SO | 47.5 | 7.1% | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Memphis | Reggis Ball | DB | 5'11, 210 | SR | 46.5 | 7.0% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| Memphis | Shareef White | LB | 6'1, 235 | SO | 41.5 | 6.2% | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Memphis | Chris Morley | DB | 5'11, 195 | JR | 38.5 | 5.8% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Memphis | Dontrell Nelson | DB | 6'1, 180 | JR | 38.5 | 5.8% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Memphis | Arthur Maulet | DB | 5'11, 190 | JR | 34.5 | 5.2% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| Memphis | Chauncey Lanier | DB | 5'10, 185 | JR | 32.5 | 4.9% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Memphis | Dion Witty | DB | 5'10, 190 | SR | 28.5 | 4.3% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Memphis | Jackson Dillon | LB | 6'6, 245 | JR | 28.0 | 4.2% | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Memphis | Donald Pennington | DL | 6'2, 295 | JR | 26.5 | 4.0% | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Memphis | DeMarco Montgomery | DE | 6'3, 245 | JR | 21.5 | 3.2% | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | ||||||||||||
Individual Special Teams Stats
| Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| Auburn | Kevin Phillips | 6'0, 185 | JR | 52 | 41.1 | 5 | 23 | 15 | 73.1% |
| Memphis | Spencer Smith | 6'1, 195 | SO | 37 | 47.2 | 4 | 11 | 8 | 51.4% |
| Memphis | Nick Jacobs | 6'1, 195 | SO | 14 | 36.0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 121.4% |
| Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches | Onside Att | Onside Success |
| Auburn | Daniel Carlson | 6'4, 213 | SO | 63 | 64.0 | 45 | 71.4% | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Auburn | Will Hastings | 5'10, 165 | FR | 1 | 42.0 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Memphis | Jake Elliott | 5'10, 165 | JR | 96 | 64.4 | 72 | 75.0% | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| Auburn | Daniel Carlson | 6'4, 213 | SO | 36-36 | 22-26 | 84.6% |
| Memphis | Jake Elliott | 5'10, 165 | JR | 62-62 | 22-26 | 84.6% |
| Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Auburn | Johnathan Ford | 6'0, 203 | JR | 14 | 28.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Auburn | Kerryon Johnson | 6'0, 195 | FR | 14 | 27.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Memphis | Jae'Lon Oglesby | 5'11, 175 | FR | 25 | 23.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 (0) |
| Memphis | Sam Craft | 6'0, 210 | JR | 10 | 19.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 (0) |
| Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Auburn | Marcus Davis | 5'9, 180 | JR | 9 | 9.4 | 0 | 14 | 0 (0) |
| Auburn | Carlton Davis | 6'1, 190 | FR | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 (0) |
| Memphis | Roderick Proctor | 5'11, 175 | SO | 19 | 7.4 | 1 | 15 | 2 (0) |
| Memphis | Mose Frazier | 5'11, 190 | SR | 4 | 7.0 | 0 | 8 | 1 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
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