2015 Music City Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Louisville vs. Texas A&M
Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports
December 30 ( 7:00 PM ET, ESPN ), Nissan Stadium, Nashville
Spread: Texas A&M -3
S&P+ Projection: Louisville 27.5, Texas A&M 24.5
Team Sites: Good Bull Hunting, Card Chronicle
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
The Basics
| Category | Texas A&M | Louisville | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 44 | 32 | ||
| Category | Texas A&M offense | Louisville defense | Louisville offense | Texas A&M defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.39 (63) | 4.62 (17) | 5.60 (49) | 5.01 (39) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 425.7 (42) | 323.3 (15) | 402.0 (61) | 366.9 (45) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.15 (70) | 1.80 (44) | 2.11 (75) | 1.63 (27) |
| Category | Texas A&M offense | Louisville defense | Louisville offense | Texas A&M defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 29.7 (58) | 20.8 (22) | 31.2 (50) | 22.4 (30) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 114.3 (22) | 123.3 (7) | 113.1 (24) | 96.4 (82) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 96.2 (80) | 104.7 (51) | 103.6 (60) | 142.7 (2) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 105.0 (49) | 114.6 (20) | 103.6 (53) | 110.6 (33) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 97.9 (77) | 107.9 (43) | 120.3 (23) | 124.0 (14) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 123.2 (17) | 123.8 (17) | 104.4 (61) | 101.1 (57) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 112.3 (38) | 111.2 (38) | 114.2 (32) | 127.1 (13) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 77.8 (122) | 113.9 (31) | 114.8 (31) | 107.4 (49) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 104.0 (63) | 120.1 (16) | 115.8 (19) | 119.6 (17) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Texas A&M
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 5 defense vs. No. 118 offense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 6 defense vs. No. 107 offense)
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 48 defense vs. No. 127 offense)
- Run Stuffs (No. 35 defense vs. No. 103 offense)
- Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 2 defense vs. No. 62 offense)
Louisville
- Q3 S&P+ (No. 27 vs. No. 104)
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 26 offense vs. No. 87 defense)
- Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 31 defense vs. No. 91 offense)
- Rushing S&P+ (No. 24 offense vs. No. 82 defense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 8 defense vs. No. 63 offense)
Five Factors
| Category | Texas A&M offense | Louisville defense | Louisville offense | Texas A&M defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.19 (99) | 1.20 (36) | 1.31 (37) | 1.21 (44) |
| EFFICIENCY | 43.0% (50) | 37.0% (24) | 40.8% (79) | 38.4% (40) |
| FIELD POSITION | 30.6 (49) | 29.9 (70) | 31.1 (40) | 28.0 (31) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.4 (92) | 5.1 (105) | 4.6 (83) | 4.0 (24) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Texas A&M -2.65 (95) Louisville -2.84 (96) | ACTUAL Texas A&M -4 (94) Louisville -3 (87) | ||
Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Texas A&M offense | Louisville offense |
| Adj. Pace | 3.0 (33) | -3.5 (95) |
| Plays per game | 78.9 (26) | 71.8 (79) |
| Possessions per game | 13.2 (60) | 13.7 (36) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 53.0% (102) | 53.9% (96) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 33.5% (57) | 37.7% (35) |
| % of solo tackles | 66.9% (116) | 75.9% (51) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Texas A&M defense | Louisville defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 67.9% (10) | 61.3% (51) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 37.4% (28) | 31.3% (83) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 20.8% (7) | 19.5% (15) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 13.0% (8) | 12.3% (14) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 7.8% (19) | 6.8% (46) |
| PD to INC | 41.2% (6) | 33.3% (57) |
When Texas A&M has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Texas A&M Offense | Louisville Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 105.0 | 49 | 114.6 | 20 | Louisville |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 47.9 | 49 | 41.6 | 22 | Louisville |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.08 | 72 | 0.96 | 43 | Louisville |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.34 | 10 | 2.57 | 26 | Texas A&M |
| SD Sack Rate | 6.5% | 96 | 5.3% | 54 | Louisville |
Passing Downs
| Texas A&M Offense | Louisville Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 97.9 | 77 | 107.9 | 43 | Louisville |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 31.3 | 60 | 28.7 | 49 | Louisville |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.60 | 101 | 2.27 | 24 | Louisville big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 4.01 | 9 | 2.82 | 33 | Texas A&M |
| PD Sack Rate | 7.2% | 63 | 12% | 8 | Louisville big |
When Louisville has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Louisville Offense | Texas A&M Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 103.6 | 53 | 110.6 | 33 | Texas A&M |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 44.4 | 98 | 46.9 | 73 | Texas A&M |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.16 | 41 | 1.05 | 7 | Texas A&M |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.91 | 65 | 2.99 | 83 | Louisville |
| SD Sack Rate | 11.2% | 127 | 5.4% | 48 | Texas A&M big |
Passing Downs
| Louisville Offense | Texas A&M Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 120.3 | 23 | 124.0 | 14 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 33.9 | 39 | 21.7 | 4 | Texas A&M |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.69 | 87 | 1.59 | 127 | Louisville |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.10 | 80 | 3.52 | 96 | Louisville |
| PD Sack Rate | 10.6% | 107 | 12.9% | 6 | Texas A&M big |
Individual Passing Stats
| Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate | Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| Texas A&M | Kyle Allen | 6'3, 210 | SO | 160 | 283 | 2210 | 17 | 7 | 56.5% | 23 | 7.5% | 6.7 |
| Texas A&M | Kyler Murray | 5'11, 188 | FR | 72 | 121 | 686 | 5 | 7 | 59.5% | 8 | 6.2% | 4.9 |
| Texas A&M | Jake Hubenak | 6'3, 195 | SO | 12 | 27 | 92 | 1 | 0 | 44.4% | 1 | 3.6% | 3.0 |
| Louisville | Lamar Jackson | 6'3, 196 | FR | 123 | 221 | 1613 | 10 | 8 | 55.7% | 25 | 10.2% | 5.9 |
| Louisville | Kyle Bolin | 6'2, 208 | SO | 78 | 137 | 1154 | 7 | 6 | 56.9% | 12 | 8.1% | 7.2 |
| Louisville | Reggie Bonnafon | 6'3, 209 | SO | 14 | 24 | 192 | 2 | 1 | 58.3% | 6 | 20.0% | 5.0 |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry | Hlt Yds/ Opp. | Opp. Rate |
| Texas A&M | Tra Carson | RB | 6'0, 235 | SR | 223 | 1059 | 6 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 41.3% |
| Texas A&M | James White | RB | 6'0, 220 | SO | 50 | 189 | 1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 38.0% |
| Texas A&M | Kyler Murray | QB | 5'11, 188 | FR | 45 | 387 | 1 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 62.2% |
| Texas A&M | Kyle Allen | QB | 6'3, 210 | SO | 43 | 258 | 2 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 51.2% |
| Louisville | Brandon Radcliff | RB | 5'9, 214 | JR | 128 | 587 | 7 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 32.0% |
| Louisville | Lamar Jackson | QB | 6'3, 196 | FR | 116 | 907 | 9 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 53.4% |
| Louisville | Jeremy Smith | RB | 6'2, 225 | SO | 60 | 270 | 3 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 35.0% |
| Louisville | L.J. Scott | RB | 6'0, 226 | SO | 34 | 153 | 2 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 32.4% |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Individual Receiving Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch | Yds/ Target | Catch Rate |
| Texas A&M | Christian Kirk | WR | 5'11, 200 | FR | 111 | 70 | 925 | 6 | 13.2 | 8.3 | 63.1% |
| Texas A&M | Ricky Seals-Jones | WR | 6'5, 240 | SO | 70 | 42 | 542 | 3 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 60.0% |
| Texas A&M | Josh Reynolds | WR | 6'4, 195 | JR | 67 | 40 | 730 | 5 | 18.3 | 10.9 | 59.7% |
| Texas A&M | Speedy Noil | WR | 5'11, 192 | SO | 46 | 21 | 226 | 2 | 10.8 | 4.9 | 45.7% |
| Texas A&M | Damion Ratley | WR | 6'1, 190 | SO | 32 | 15 | 200 | 2 | 13.3 | 6.3 | 46.9% |
| Texas A&M | Tra Carson | RB | 6'0, 235 | SR | 31 | 28 | 176 | 1 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 90.3% |
| Texas A&M | Jeremy Tabuyo | WR | 5'11, 192 | JR | 15 | 9 | 102 | 3 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 60.0% |
| Louisville | James Quick | WR | 6'1, 191 | JR | 65 | 35 | 551 | 5 | 15.7 | 8.5 | 53.8% |
| Louisville | Jaylen Smith | WR | 6'4, 184 | FR | 56 | 27 | 372 | 1 | 13.8 | 6.6 | 48.2% |
| Louisville | Jamari Staples | WR | 6'4, 195 | JR | 52 | 36 | 610 | 3 | 16.9 | 11.7 | 69.2% |
| Louisville | Traveon Samuel | WR | 5'7, 175 | FR | 26 | 19 | 187 | 1 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 73.1% |
| Louisville | Devonte Peete | WR | 6'6, 203 | FR | 24 | 12 | 166 | 1 | 13.8 | 6.9 | 50.0% |
| Louisville | Cole Hikutini | TE | 6'5, 240 | JR | 23 | 16 | 245 | 3 | 15.3 | 10.7 | 69.6% |
| Louisville | Ja'Quay Savage | WR | 6'3, 214 | SR | 22 | 12 | 135 | 1 | 11.3 | 6.1 | 54.5% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| Texas A&M | Armani Watts | DB | 5'11, 200 | SO | 91.0 | 12.8% | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | Justin Evans | DB | 6'1, 195 | JR | 59.5 | 8.4% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | Shaan Washington | LB | 6'3, 235 | JR | 52.5 | 7.4% | 7.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | Myles Garrett | DL | 6'5, 262 | SO | 46.5 | 6.6% | 18.5 | 11.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | Donovan Wilson | DB | 6'1, 205 | SO | 44.5 | 6.3% | 7.5 | 2.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | A.J. Hilliard | LB | 6'2, 245 | JR | 41.5 | 5.9% | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | Daeshon Hall | DL | 6'6, 260 | JR | 34.0 | 4.8% | 12.5 | 7.0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | Brandon Williams | DB | 6'0, 205 | SR | 28.5 | 4.0% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | De'Vante Harris | DB | 5'11, 185 | SR | 26.0 | 3.7% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | Richard Moore | LB | 6'0, 215 | FR | 24.5 | 3.5% | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | Daylon Mack | DL | 6'1, 335 | FR | 22.0 | 3.1% | 8.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | Zaycoven Henderson | DL | 6'1, 297 | SO | 20.5 | 2.9% | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | Nick Harvey | DB | 5'10, 180 | SO | 20.0 | 2.8% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Louisville | Keith Kelsey | LB | 6'1, 236 | JR | 76.5 | 12.0% | 12.0 | 3.5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Louisville | James Burgess | LB | 6'0, 229 | SR | 72.0 | 11.3% | 9.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| Louisville | Josh Harvey-Clemons | S | 6'5, 230 | JR | 61.5 | 9.7% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Louisville | Devonte Fields | LB | 6'4, 245 | JR | 47.0 | 7.4% | 19.5 | 8.0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Louisville | Chucky Williams | S | 6'2, 204 | SO | 46.0 | 7.2% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Louisville | Trumaine Washington | CB | 5'10, 183 | SO | 44.0 | 6.9% | 7.0 | 2.0 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Louisville | Sheldon Rankins | DE | 6'2, 303 | SR | 40.0 | 6.3% | 12.0 | 6.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Louisville | DeAngelo Brown | DT | 6'1, 308 | JR | 28.0 | 4.4% | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Louisville | Jermaine Reve | S | 6'0, 192 | SR | 26.5 | 4.2% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Louisville | Trevon Young | LB | 6'4, 229 | SR | 25.5 | 4.0% | 10.0 | 8.5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Louisville | Keith Brown | LB | 6'1, 237 | JR | 24.5 | 3.8% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Louisville | Shaq Wiggins | CB | 5'10, 171 | SO | 24.0 | 3.8% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Louisville | Pio Vatuvei | DE | 6'2, 296 | SR | 17.5 | 2.7% | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | ||||||||||||
Individual Special Teams Stats
| Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| Texas A&M | Drew Kaser | 6'3, 215 | SR | 53 | 48.0 | 8 | 11 | 17 | 52.8% |
| Texas A&M | Shane Tripucka | 6'3, 210 | SO | 2 | 44.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 50.0% |
| Louisville | Joshua Appleby | 6'3, 222 | SR | 63 | 40.2 | 3 | 35 | 24 | 93.7% |
| Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches | Onside Att | Onside Success |
| Texas A&M | Taylor Bertolet | 5'9, 188 | SR | 67 | 62.5 | 31 | 46.3% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | Daniel LaCamera | 6'4, 210 | FR | 4 | 63.0 | 2 | 50.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Louisville | John Wallace | 6'0, 190 | SR | 68 | 63.1 | 27 | 39.7% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Louisville | Joshua Appleby | 6'3, 222 | SR | 1 | 46.0 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| Texas A&M | Taylor Bertolet | 5'9, 188 | SR | 35-35 | 22-30 | 73.3% |
| Texas A&M | Daniel LaCamera | 6'4, 210 | FR | 3-3 | 0-0 | N/A |
| Louisville | John Wallace | 6'0, 190 | SR | 43-43 | 15-20 | 75.0% |
| Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Texas A&M | Christian Kirk | 5'11, 200 | FR | 18 | 19.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 (2) |
| Texas A&M | Speedy Noil | 5'11, 192 | SO | 11 | 21.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Louisville | Corvin Lamb | 5'9, 208 | SR | 16 | 17.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 (0) |
| Louisville | Traveon Samuel | 5'7, 175 | FR | 9 | 30.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Texas A&M | Christian Kirk | 5'11, 200 | FR | 14 | 24.4 | 2 | 20 | 1 (1) |
| Texas A&M | Speedy Noil | 5'11, 192 | SO | 2 | 8.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 (0) |
| Louisville | Jaire Alexander | 5'11, 170 | FR | 20 | 8.7 | 0 | 13 | 2 (0) |
| Louisville | Cornelius Sturghill | 5'11, 186 | FR | 4 | -0.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 (1) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
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