2015 Holiday Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Wisconsin vs. USC
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
December 30 ( 10:30 PM ET, ESPN ), Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego
Spread: USC -3
S&P+ Projection: USC 28.1, Wisconsin 25.0
Team Sites: Conquest Chronicles, Bucky's 5th Quarter
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
The Basics
| Category | USC | Wisconsin | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 19 | 28 | ||
| Category | USC offense | Wisconsin defense | Wisconsin offense | USC defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.97 (33) | 4.06 (3) | 5.02 (96) | 5.63 (92) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 440.2 (37) | 256.6 (1) | 375.3 (86) | 412.6 (79) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.79 (21) | 1.02 (1) | 2.10 (76) | 2.05 (68) |
| Category | USC offense | Wisconsin defense | Wisconsin offense | USC defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 39.6 (12) | 15.1 (7) | 26.2 (86) | 25.4 (49) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 109.7 (34) | 119.5 (14) | 98.7 (80) | 111.0 (35) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 112.6 (38) | 126.7 (9) | 110.2 (39) | 107.1 (41) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 109.7 (36) | 121.6 (7) | 101.3 (63) | 108.1 (35) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 111.9 (41) | 127.0 (11) | 112.1 (40) | 110.4 (32) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 112.3 (40) | 129.8 (10) | 97.6 (83) | 93.7 (90) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 122.3 (18) | 110.0 (46) | 130.1 (9) | 118.6 (20) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 112.0 (39) | 140.6 (5) | 105.8 (57) | 122.2 (19) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 107.2 (45) | 122.2 (11) | 93.4 (99) | 111.6 (33) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
USC
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 5 defense vs. No. 81 offense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 21 defense vs. No. 74 offense)
- Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 20 defense vs. No. 73 offense)
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 42 defense vs. No. 88 offense)
- Rushing S&P+ (No. 35 defense vs. No. 80 offense)
Wisconsin
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 25 defense vs. No. 118 offense)
- Field Position (No. 27 defense vs. No. 108 offense)
- Run Stuffs (No. 18 offense vs. No. 95 defense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 19 defense vs. No. 94 offense)
- Field Position (No. 11 offense vs. No. 61 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | USC offense | Wisconsin defense | Wisconsin offense | USC defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.27 (57) | 1.17 (24) | 1.16 (111) | 1.26 (72) |
| EFFICIENCY | 45.3% (27) | 33.2% (8) | 41.8% (69) | 43.2% (83) |
| FIELD POSITION | 28.1 (108) | 27.7 (27) | 33.2 (11) | 29.4 (61) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 5.3 (16) | 3.3 (3) | 4.1 (107) | 4.4 (44) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: USC 3.00 (40) Wisconsin 0.00 (72) | ACTUAL USC 12 (9) Wisconsin 2 (52) | ||
Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | USC offense | Wisconsin offense |
| Adj. Pace | -0.8 (65) | -0.6 (64) |
| Plays per game | 73.7 (63) | 74.8 (56) |
| Possessions per game | 12.5 (95) | 12.9 (75) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 57.5% (78) | 60.7% (61) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 29.3% (85) | 23.0% (119) |
| % of solo tackles | 72.2% (84) | 63.9% (121) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | USC defense | Wisconsin defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 59.8% (64) | 57.9% (89) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 27.2% (118) | 31.8% (80) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 15.3% (78) | 18.6% (26) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 10.5% (42) | 11.9% (20) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 4.5% (116) | 6.7% (50) |
| PD to INC | 31.0% (80) | 33.3% (57) |
When USC has the ball…
Standard Downs
| USC Offense | Wisconsin Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 109.7 | 36 | 121.6 | 7 | Wisconsin |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 51.4 | 22 | 38.7 | 9 | Wisconsin |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.09 | 71 | 1.17 | 26 | Wisconsin |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.05 | 45 | 2.88 | 66 | USC |
| SD Sack Rate | 3.9% | 46 | 4.9% | 71 | USC |
Passing Downs
| USC Offense | Wisconsin Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 111.9 | 41 | 127.0 | 11 | Wisconsin |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 31.0 | 62 | 22.4 | 7 | Wisconsin big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.00 | 17 | 1.54 | 44 | USC |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.48 | 39 | 2.80 | 31 | |
| PD Sack Rate | 11.7% | 118 | 9.5% | 25 | Wisconsin big |
When Wisconsin has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Wisconsin Offense | USC Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 101.3 | 63 | 108.1 | 35 | USC |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 44.9 | 92 | 46.2 | 64 | USC |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.05 | 91 | 1.01 | 99 | |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.76 | 87 | 3.01 | 87 | |
| SD Sack Rate | 4.6% | 59 | 6.9% | 19 | USC |
Passing Downs
| Wisconsin Offense | USC Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 112.1 | 40 | 110.4 | 32 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 34.6 | 32 | 36.2 | 115 | Wisconsin big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.51 | 122 | 1.69 | 16 | USC big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.98 | 88 | 3.22 | 64 | USC |
| PD Sack Rate | 7.8% | 74 | 10.3% | 21 | USC big |
Individual Passing Stats
| Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate | Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| USC | Cody Kessler | 6'1, 215 | SR | 280 | 414 | 3315 | 28 | 6 | 67.6% | 35 | 7.8% | 6.9 |
| USC | Max Browne | 6'5, 220 | SO | 8 | 12 | 113 | 0 | 0 | 66.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 9.4 |
| Wisconsin | Joel Stave | 6'5, 219 | SR | 207 | 343 | 2470 | 10 | 11 | 60.3% | 21 | 5.8% | 6.4 |
| Wisconsin | Bart Houston | 6'4, 224 | JR | 27 | 45 | 281 | 3 | 2 | 60.0% | 3 | 6.3% | 5.5 |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry | Hlt Yds/ Opp. | Opp. Rate |
| USC | Justin Davis | TB | 6'1, 195 | JR | 157 | 875 | 5 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 43.3% |
| USC | Ronald Jones II | TB | 6'0, 185 | FR | 145 | 940 | 8 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 42.1% |
| USC | Tre Madden | TB | 6'1, 225 | SR | 85 | 452 | 5 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 42.4% |
| USC | Cody Kessler | QB | 6'1, 215 | SR | 21 | 93 | 4 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 33.3% |
| Wisconsin | Dare Ogunbowale | RB | 5'11, 200 | JR | 181 | 769 | 7 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 34.8% |
| Wisconsin | Taiwan Deal | RB | 6'1, 220 | FR | 115 | 495 | 6 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 38.3% |
| Wisconsin | Alec Ingold | ILB | 6'2, 237 | FR | 49 | 131 | 6 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 18.4% |
| Wisconsin | Corey Clement | RB | 5'11, 219 | JR | 29 | 155 | 4 | 5.3 | 9.0 | 31.0% |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Individual Receiving Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch | Yds/ Target | Catch Rate |
| USC | JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | 6'2, 215 | SO | 126 | 85 | 1389 | 10 | 16.3 | 11.0 | 67.5% |
| USC | Steven Mitchell Jr. | WR | 5'10, 190 | SO | 52 | 35 | 308 | 4 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 67.3% |
| USC | Darreus Rogers | WR | 6'1, 215 | JR | 38 | 26 | 264 | 2 | 10.2 | 7.0 | 68.4% |
| USC | Adoree' Jackson | CB | 5'11, 185 | SO | 25 | 24 | 382 | 2 | 15.9 | 15.3 | 96.0% |
| USC | Justin Davis | TB | 6'1, 195 | JR | 23 | 18 | 189 | 0 | 10.5 | 8.2 | 78.3% |
| USC | De'Quan Hampton | WR | 6'4, 220 | JR | 22 | 15 | 165 | 0 | 11.0 | 7.5 | 68.2% |
| USC | Tre Madden | TB | 6'1, 225 | SR | 21 | 17 | 133 | 1 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 81.0% |
| Wisconsin | Alex Erickson | WR | 6'0, 197 | SR | 119 | 72 | 924 | 3 | 12.8 | 7.8 | 60.5% |
| Wisconsin | Dare Ogunbowale | RB | 5'11, 200 | JR | 47 | 34 | 278 | 1 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 72.3% |
| Wisconsin | Robert Wheelwright | WR | 6'3, 202 | JR | 44 | 28 | 369 | 4 | 13.2 | 8.4 | 63.6% |
| Wisconsin | Troy Fumagalli | TE | 6'6, 247 | SO | 41 | 26 | 277 | 1 | 10.7 | 6.8 | 63.4% |
| Wisconsin | Jazz Peavy | WR | 6'0, 189 | SO | 29 | 20 | 268 | 0 | 13.4 | 9.2 | 69.0% |
| Wisconsin | Tanner McEvoy | S | 6'6, 231 | SR | 22 | 10 | 109 | 0 | 10.9 | 5.0 | 45.5% |
| Wisconsin | Austin Traylor | TE | 6'4, 245 | SR | 17 | 11 | 163 | 3 | 14.8 | 9.6 | 64.7% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| USC | Cameron Smith | ILB | 6'2, 245 | FR | 63.0 | 8.4% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| USC | Su'a Cravens | OLB | 6'1, 225 | JR | 61.5 | 8.2% | 14.5 | 5.5 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| USC | Chris Hawkins | S | 5'11, 190 | SO | 50.0 | 6.7% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| USC | Iman Marshall | CB | 6'2, 200 | FR | 47.5 | 6.3% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| USC | Anthony Sarao | ILB | 6'0, 235 | SR | 42.5 | 5.7% | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| USC | Delvon Simmons | DT | 6'5, 295 | SR | 35.5 | 4.7% | 8.5 | 4.0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| USC | Greg Townsend Jr. | DE | 6'3, 275 | SR | 31.0 | 4.1% | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| USC | Olajuwon Tucker | ILB | 6'3, 235 | SO | 28.5 | 3.8% | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| USC | John Plattenburg | S | 5'11, 185 | SO | 26.5 | 3.5% | 3.5 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| USC | Adoree' Jackson | CB | 5'11, 185 | SO | 26.0 | 3.5% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| USC | Lamar Dawson | ILB | 6'1, 230 | SR | 23.0 | 3.1% | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| USC | Antwaun Woods | DT | 6'1, 320 | SR | 22.0 | 2.9% | 6.0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| USC | Marvell Tell III | S | 6'2, 190 | FR | 21.5 | 2.9% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | T.J. Edwards | ILB | 6'1, 238 | FR | 59.0 | 10.5% | 5.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Joe Schobert | OLB | 6'2, 236 | SR | 57.0 | 10.2% | 18.5 | 9.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Vince Biegel | OLB | 6'4, 246 | JR | 46.5 | 8.3% | 14.0 | 8.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Michael Caputo | S | 6'1, 206 | SR | 44.5 | 7.9% | 1.0 | 0.5 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Jack Cichy | OLB | 6'2, 223 | SO | 38.5 | 6.9% | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Chris Orr | ILB | 6'0, 228 | FR | 34.5 | 6.1% | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Darius Hillary | CB | 5'11, 187 | SR | 32.5 | 5.8% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Tanner McEvoy | S | 6'6, 231 | SR | 32.0 | 5.7% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Chikwe Obasih | DE | 6'3, 268 | SO | 27.0 | 4.8% | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Derrick Tindal | CB | 5'11, 176 | SO | 25.0 | 4.5% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Sojourn Shelton | CB | 5'9, 176 | JR | 23.5 | 4.2% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Conor Sheehy | NT | 6'4, 272 | SO | 18.0 | 3.2% | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | D'Cota Dixon | S | 5'10, 203 | SO | 12.5 | 2.2% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | ||||||||||||
Individual Special Teams Stats
| Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| USC | Kris Albarado | 5'10, 195 | SR | 59 | 41.3 | 3 | 27 | 14 | 69.5% |
| Wisconsin | Drew Meyer | 6'3, 189 | SR | 63 | 39.7 | 8 | 16 | 17 | 52.4% |
| Wisconsin | P.J. Rosowski | 6'3, 199 | FR | 1 | 40.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches | Onside Att | Onside Success |
| USC | Alex Wood | 5'10, 175 | JR | 65 | 61.7 | 10 | 15.4% | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| USC | Matt Boermeester | 6'0, 180 | SO | 18 | 62.1 | 1 | 5.6% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Andrew Endicott | 5'9, 172 | JR | 36 | 60.0 | 9 | 25.0% | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Jack Russell | 6'0, 175 | SR | 20 | 55.6 | 2 | 10.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| USC | Alex Wood | 5'10, 175 | JR | 51-53 | 13-17 | 76.5% |
| USC | Matt Boermeester | 6'0, 180 | SO | 4-4 | 0-0 | #DIV/0! |
| Wisconsin | Rafael Gaglianone | 5'11, 240 | SO | 38-38 | 15-24 | 62.5% |
| Wisconsin | Jack Russell | 6'0, 175 | SR | 2-2 | 0-0 | #DIV/0! |
| Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| USC | Adoree' Jackson | 5'11, 185 | SO | 29 | 22.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| USC | Justin Davis | 6'1, 195 | JR | 7 | 20.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Wisconsin | Natrell Jamerson | 6'0, 191 | SO | 18 | 22.3 | 1 | 0 | 1 (0) |
| Wisconsin | Derek Straus | 6'1, 227 | SR | 3 | 11.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| USC | Adoree' Jackson | 5'11, 185 | SO | 23 | 10.9 | 2 | 3 | 1 (0) |
| USC | Christian Tober | 5'8, 175 | JR | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 (0) |
| Wisconsin | Alex Erickson | 6'0, 197 | SR | 24 | 7.3 | 0 | 20 | 3 (1) |
| Wisconsin | Sojourn Shelton | 5'9, 176 | JR | 3 | 8.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
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