College Football

2015 Orange Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Clemson vs. Oklahoma

by Bill Connelly

Dec 9, 2015, 9:01 PM UTC

Joshua S. Kelly-USA TODAY Sports

Capital One Orange Bowl -- CFP SEMIFINAL

No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners (11-1) vs. No. 1 Clemson Tigers (13-0)

December 31 ( 4:00 PM ET, ESPN ), Sun Life Stadium, Miami

Spread: Oklahoma -4

S&P+ Projection: Clemson 30.5, Oklahoma 28.7

Team Sites: Crimson And Cream Machine, Shakin The Southland

_Confused?_{Check out the advanced-stats glossary here}_.

_{Statistical profiles index}_.

_{Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here}_.

The Basics

Category	Oklahoma		Clemson
S&P+ (Rk)	3		2
Category	Oklahoma offense	Clemson defense	Clemson offense	Oklahoma defense
Yards per play (Rk)	6.65 (10)	4.48 (10)	6.27 (18)	4.56 (15)
Yards per game (Rk)	543.7 (6)	293.2 (4)	517.7 (10)	354.5 (34)
Points per possession (Rk)	3.19 (8)	1.42 (15)	2.72 (27)	1.38 (13)
Category	Oklahoma offense	Clemson defense	Clemson offense	Oklahoma defense
S&P+ (Rk)	43.4 (3)	15.0 (6)	41.3 (10)	18.7 (12)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk)	115.3 (18)	119.6 (13)	112.0 (28)	124.7 (6)
Passing S&P+ (Rk)	127.2 (10)	141.2 (3)	143.4 (3)	131.8 (6)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk)	127.5 (3)	145.8 (2)	124.7 (6)	127.4 (3)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk)	102.4 (61)	104.6 (59)	127.5 (13)	126.9 (12)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk)	111.0 (44)	159.2 (1)	127.4 (9)	137.7 (5)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk)	133.1 (5)	156.2 (2)	131.3 (6)	128.1 (11)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk)	132.7 (4)	135.1 (9)	127.9 (10)	123.6 (16)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk)	111.1 (34)	99.6 (68)	113.8 (27)	113.5 (27)

Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

_{* or smallest disadvantages}

Oklahoma

Field Position (No. 23 offense vs. No. 96 defense)
Field Position (No. 32 defense vs. No. 103 offense)
Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 5 defense vs. No. 35 offense)
Rushing S&P+ (No. 6 defense vs. No. 28 offense)
Q4 S&P+ (No. 20 vs. No. 42 )

Clemson

Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 1 defense vs. No. 120 offense)
Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 6 offense vs. No. 114 defense)
Adj. Sack Rate (No. 14 defense vs. No. 105 offense)
Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 28 defense vs. No. 86 offense)
Run Stuffs (No. 2 defense vs. No. 49 offense)

Five Factors

Category	Oklahoma offense	Clemson defense	Clemson offense	Oklahoma defense
EXPLOSIVENESS	1.41 (7)	1.40 (114)	1.29 (46)	1.20 (32)
EFFICIENCY	46.8% (17)	31.2% (3)	48.6% (13)	35.7% (19)
FIELD POSITION	32.2 (23)	31.1 (96)	28.4 (103)	28.0 (32)
FINISHING DRIVES	5.2 (27)	4.0 (27)	5.3 (25)	4.2 (31)
TURNOVER MARGIN	EXPECTED: Oklahoma 2.73 (43) Clemson 2.28 (50)		ACTUAL Oklahoma 10 (14) Clemson -2 (80)

Offensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Oklahoma offense	Clemson offense
Adj. Pace	6.6 (16)	8.1 (12)
Plays per game	81.8 (15)	82.5 (13)
Possessions per game	14.3 (12)	14.2 (16)
Std. Downs Run Rate	56.4% (84)	57.9% (75)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	35.8% (48)	35.9% (45)
% of solo tackles	75.4% (60)	77.1% (44)

Defensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Oklahoma defense	Clemson defense
Std. Downs Run Rate	59.3% (71)	58.3% (82)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	40.7% (14)	34.4% (60)
Overall Havoc Rate	16.7% (49)	21.3% (5)
Front 7 Havoc Rate	10.9% (30)	14.0% (6)
DB Havoc Rate	5.8% (79)	6.9% (41)
PD to INC	29.7% (90)	27.6% (106)

When Oklahoma has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Oklahoma Offense		Clemson Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	127.5	3	145.8	2
Standard Downs Success Rate	52.1	18	33.8	2	Clemson
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.39	2	1.03	57	Oklahoma big
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.39	8	2.16	4
SD Sack Rate	9.4%	120	11.5%	1	Clemson big

Passing Downs

	Oklahoma Offense		Clemson Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	102.4	61	104.6	59
Passing Downs Success Rate	33.9	37	27.5	34
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.51	123	1.66	116
PD Line Yards per Carry	2.92	96	2.86	38	Clemson big
PD Sack Rate	8.6%	86	9.3%	28	Clemson big

When Clemson has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Clemson Offense		Oklahoma Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	124.7	6	127.4	3
Standard Downs Success Rate	52.7	16	40.5	15
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.23	16	1.08	35	Clemson
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.25	19	2.55	23
SD Sack Rate	1.6%	7	6.1%	31	Clemson

Passing Downs

	Clemson Offense		Oklahoma Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	127.5	13	126.9	12
Passing Downs Success Rate	36.4	21	27.0	31
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.56	111	1.96	38	Oklahoma big
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.52	35	3.43	87	Clemson big
PD Sack Rate	3.8%	8	8.4%	41	Clemson

Individual Passing Stats

Team	Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Oklahoma	Baker Mayfield	6'1, 209	JR	243	354	3389	35	5	68.6%	34	8.8%	8.3
Oklahoma	Trevor Knight	6'1, 207	JR	22	40	305	2	2	55.0%	2	4.8%	7.0
Oklahoma	Cody Thomas	6'4, 211	SO	1	1	1	0	0	100.0%	0	0.0%	1.0
Clemson	Deshaun Watson	6'2, 210	SO	287	413	3512	30	11	69.5%	12	2.8%	8.1
Clemson	Nick Schuessler	6'3, 200	JR	13	23	177	0	1	56.5%	2	8.0%	6.1
Clemson	Kelly Bryant	6'3, 215	FR	7	9	27	0	1	77.8%	0	0.0%	3.0

Individual Rushing Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate
Oklahoma	Samaje Perine	RB	5'10, 230	SO	211	1291	15	6.1	6.5	40.8%
Oklahoma	Joe Mixon	RB	6'1, 217	FR	110	749	7	6.8	7.0	46.4%
Oklahoma	Baker Mayfield	QB	6'1, 209	JR	97	582	7	6.0	5.8	44.3%
Oklahoma	Alex Ross	RB	6'1, 221	JR	30	173	1	5.8	5.7	40.0%
Clemson	Wayne Gallman	RB	6'1, 215	SO	243	1332	10	5.5	4.9	40.3%
Clemson	Deshaun Watson	QB	6'2, 210	SO	151	954	11	6.3	5.4	46.4%
Clemson	C.J. Fuller	RB	5'10, 210	FR	42	171	1	4.1	2.0	35.7%
Clemson	Zac Brooks	RB	6'1, 200	SR	37	211	3	5.7	7.0	35.1%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.

Individual Receiving Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Yds/ Catch	Yds/ Target	Catch Rate
Oklahoma	Sterling Shepard	WR	5'10, 193	SR	104	79	1201	11	15.2	11.6	76.0%
Oklahoma	Dede Westbrook	WR	6'0, 168	JR	65	42	674	4	16.1	10.4	64.6%
Oklahoma	Durron Neal	WR	5'11, 199	SR	58	42	527	3	12.6	9.1	72.4%
Oklahoma	Joe Mixon	RB	6'1, 217	FR	30	25	345	4	13.8	11.5	83.3%
Oklahoma	Jarvis Baxter	WR	5'11, 160	JR	27	17	182	1	10.7	6.7	63.0%
Oklahoma	Mark Andrews	TE	6'5, 245	FR	25	17	286	6	16.8	11.4	68.0%
Oklahoma	Samaje Perine	RB	5'10, 230	SO	16	13	84	1	6.5	5.3	81.2%
Clemson	Artavis Scott	WR	5'11, 190	SO	105	84	831	5	9.9	7.9	80.0%
Clemson	Charone Peake	WR	6'3, 215	SR	64	40	563	5	14.1	8.8	62.5%
Clemson	Jordan Leggett	TE	6'5, 255	JR	48	34	442	7	13.0	9.2	70.8%
Clemson	Deon Cain	WR	6'2, 200	FR	46	34	582	5	17.1	12.7	73.9%
Clemson	Hunter Renfrow	WR	5'10, 175	FR	33	22	345	2	15.7	10.5	66.7%
Clemson	Ray-Ray McCloud	WR	5'10, 180	FR	32	26	238	1	9.2	7.4	81.2%
Clemson	Germone Hopper	WR	6'0, 180	JR	29	21	317	1	15.1	10.9	72.4%

Individual Defensive Stats

Team	Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	Year	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Oklahoma	Dominique Alexander	LB	6'0, 220	JR	70.5	10.2%	7.0	0.5	1	2	0	0
Oklahoma	Jordan Evans	LB	6'2, 239	JR	62.5	9.0%	5.0	1.0	0	4	1	1
Oklahoma	Ahmad Thomas	S	6'0, 213	JR	56.0	8.1%	1.5	1.5	3	2	0	0
Oklahoma	Eric Striker	LB	6'0, 222	SR	48.5	7.0%	16.0	7.5	1	3	1	0
Oklahoma	Steven Parker	S	6'1, 200	SO	46.0	6.6%	4.0	1.5	0	4	0	0
Oklahoma	Zack Sanchez	CB	5'11, 179	JR	39.5	5.7%	3.5	0.5	6	7	0	0
Oklahoma	Jordan Thomas	CB	6'0, 191	SO	38.0	5.5%	0.0	0.0	5	4	0	0
Oklahoma	Charles Tapper	DE	6'2, 282	SR	36.0	5.2%	10.0	7.0	0	2	4	1
Oklahoma	Charles Walker	DT	6'2, 297	SO	30.5	4.4%	10.0	6.0	0	1	1	0
Oklahoma	Devante Bond	LB	6'1, 238	SR	30.5	4.4%	6.0	2.0	0	1	1	0
Oklahoma	Frank Shannon	LB	6'0, 239	SR	29.5	4.3%	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	0
Oklahoma	Matt Dimon	DT	6'2, 260	JR	24.0	3.5%	7.0	2.5	0	0	1	0
Oklahoma	Dakota Austin	CB	5'10, 157	JR	24.0	3.5%	1.0	0.0	2	3	0	0
Clemson	B.J. Goodson	LB	6'1, 250	SR	68.5	10.7%	14.0	5.5	1	3	1	1
Clemson	T.J. Green	S	6'3, 205	JR	64.0	10.0%	5.5	1.0	0	3	2	0
Clemson	Ben Boulware	LB	5'11, 240	JR	55.0	8.6%	7.0	2.5	1	6	3	0
Clemson	Shaq Lawson	DE	6'3, 270	JR	43.5	6.8%	22.5	9.5	0	0	1	0
Clemson	Kevin Dodd	DE	6'5, 275	JR	42.5	6.6%	15.0	8.0	0	0	1	0
Clemson	Jayron Kearse	S	6'5, 220	JR	42.5	6.6%	6.5	0.0	1	6	1	1
Clemson	Cordrea Tankersley	CB	6'1, 195	JR	35.5	5.5%	2.5	1.0	5	7	0	0
Clemson	Dorian O'Daniel	LB	6'1, 215	SO	26.0	4.0%	5.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Clemson	Travis Blanks	LB	6'1, 210	JR	26.0	4.0%	4.0	1.0	0	2	0	0
Clemson	Christian Wilkins	DT	6'4, 315	FR	21.5	3.3%	4.5	2.0	0	0	1	0
Clemson	Carlos Watkins	DT	6'3, 300	JR	21.0	3.3%	5.5	2.5	1	2	0	0
Clemson	Mackensie Alexander	CB	5'11, 195	SO	18.5	2.9%	2.0	0.0	0	4	0	0
Clemson	Van Smith	S	6'0, 190	FR	15.5	2.4%	1.0	0.0	1	0	0	0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.

Individual Special Teams Stats

Team	Punter	Ht, Wt	Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Oklahoma	Austin Seibert	5'10, 210	FR	51	42.4	2	27	18	88.2%
Clemson	Andy Teasdall	5'11, 190	JR	54	39.4	0	21	16	68.5%
Clemson	Deshaun Watson	6'2, 210	SO	1	23.0	0	0	1	100.0%

Team	Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%	OOB	Fair Catches	Onside Att	Onside Success
Oklahoma	Nick Hodgson	6'2, 202	SR	98	63.4	50	51.0%	0	0	0	0
Clemson	Ammon Lakip	5'10, 200	SR	73	59.2	28	38.4%	1	0	0	0
Clemson	Greg Huegel	5'11, 185	FR	22	62.0	4	18.2%	0	1	0	0

Team	Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	PAT	FG	Pct
Oklahoma	Austin Seibert	5'10, 210	FR	68-70	17-22	77.3%
Oklahoma	Nick Hodgson	6'2, 202	SR	1-1	1-1	100.0%
Clemson	Greg Huegel	5'11, 185	FR	49-54	22-25	88.0%
Clemson	Ammon Lakip	5'10, 200	SR	7-7	1-1	100.0%

Team	Kick Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Oklahoma	Alex Ross	6'1, 221	JR	26	21.1	0	0	1 (1)
Oklahoma	Durron Neal	5'11, 199	SR	2	26.5	0	0	0 (0)
Clemson	C.J. Fuller	5'10, 210	FR	14	16.9	0	0	1 (0)
Clemson	Artavis Scott	5'11, 190	SO	11	25.2	0	0	0 (0)

Team	Punt Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Oklahoma	Sterling Shepard	5'10, 193	SR	19	7.8	0	32	2 (2)
Oklahoma	Jarvis Baxter	5'11, 160	JR	1	10.0	0	0	0 (0)
Clemson	Artavis Scott	5'11, 190	SO	10	2.8	0	17	1 (0)
Clemson	Germone Hopper	6'0, 180	JR	5	-1.4	0	7	1 (1)