The big 2015 Texas State football guide: Dennis Franchione’s upward trajectory

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If you stick around long enough, you can watch the perceptions of your ability change countless times.

When Alabama hired Dennis Franchione in 2001, he was the closest thing to a can’t-miss coach in the business.

He had gone 53-6 at Pittsburg State, ushering the NAIA power to NCAA Division II and immediately going 12-1 at the higher level. He had inherited a New Mexico program that had won nine games in five seasons, won nine games in his first two years, then went 9-4 in his sixth. He’d inherited a dreadful TCU program, and in three years, he had three winning seasons. He left for Tuscaloosa after a 10-1 campaign.

In terms of perceptions, Great Coach Franchione got overtaken by Mercenary Franchione. He was supposed to coach TCU’s 2000 bowl before completely taking over at Alabama, but he wore a crimson tie while supporting TCU’s LaDainian Tomlinson at the 2000 Heisman ceremony, and TCU elected to let defensive coordinator Gary Patterson coach the bowl instead.

Two years later, after leading Alabama to a 10-3 record despite stiffer-than-expected NCAA sanctions and getting offered a 10-year contract, he interviewed at Texas A&M and took it without going back to Tuscaloosa to tell his players. Despite the 10-win campaign, his face is not shown anywhere in the Bear Bryant Museum in Tuscaloosa, and they show MIKE DUBOSE’s and MIKE SHULA’s faces in there.

In College Station, Franchione’s reputation took another hit. The R.C. Slocum era had not ended on a spectacular note, but while rebuilding was expected, Franchione went 16-19 in his first three years. His Aggies went 9-4 in 2006, but he was dumped following a 7-6 campaign and controversy surrounding a secret newsletter.

At age 48, Franchione was considered one of the best coaches in college football. At age 55, he was done. But he did what coaches do: take a color commentator job and keep looking for work. His name became, like Gary Barnett’s, a job-hunting punchline -- you couldn’t find an article about an opening that didn’t include a line like “Dennis Franchione announced his interest” -- and despite a 197-107-2 career record, he was turned down for jobs like Ball State and UNLV.

Four years ago, an old job became a new job. Franchione had spent two years as head coach at what was then Southwest Texas State between the Pittsburg State and New Mexico successes. That evidently gave him an edge over other former FBS coaches like Dan Hawkins and Tim Brewster.

Franchione took over for Brad Wright, who had reasonable success -- 8-5 and an FCS playoff bid in 2008, 7-4 in 2009 -- but had fallen to 4-7 in 2010, the Bobcats’ last year before a move to FBS. He’s navigated constant transition with decent results (6-6 with an upset win at Stephen F. Austin in 2011, 4-8 in the WAC in 2012, 6-6 in the Sun Belt in 2013). And with a young, exciting offense leading the way, he produced TXST’s first winning FBS record FBS last fall.

To be sure, he still has building to do; a bad defense has to replace most of its playmakers. But he’s recruiting at a pretty high level for the Sun Belt, and his offense has depth, experience, and a fun identity. He was given an opportunity to tack one more successful rebuild onto the résumé, and it looks like he’s doing just that.

If your season trend line looks like a ¯\_(ツ)_/¯, like Texas State’s does above, you had a strange season.

Texas State’s offense was good at dominating bad defenses -- 8.7 yards per play vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 8.2 vs. Idaho, 8.1 vs. Georgia State -- but didn’t find headway against more athletic units like Illinois (5.0), UL-Lafayette (4.7), Georgia Southern (4.7), or South Alabama (4.8). The Bobcats did run all over Arkansas State (7.1), but otherwise their success was tied to the level of their opponent.

The defense made no sense. The Bobcats held an explosive Georgia Southern offense to 5.5 yards per play but allowed 6.4 to New Mexico State; they allowed 5.1 to Arkansas State but 7.0 to Georgia State. Injuries prompted shuffling in the lineup, but really, Texas State’s season was defined by two spectacular performances against Arkansas teams (average percentile performance UAPB and Arkansas State: 77 percent) and otherwise mediocre outings (average percentile performance against everybody else: 21 percent).

Still, they got to 7-5 thanks to the offense, and there’s little reason to think the offense will trail off.

I often say that building a program is like moving sand with your bare hands. You pick up a bunch, you get some to the truck, and you lose a bit along the way. Address one issue, cause another.

In 2013, Texas State’s offense took a dramatic step backwards. Then-freshman quarterback Tyler Jones proved decent in the run game, and he had lovely weapons in Robert Lowe and Chris Nutall, but his passing stats were dreadful: 6.1 yards per attempt against a weak schedule, 120th in Passing S&P+.

Nutall was suspended last season because of academics, but Lowe and Jones formed a strong tandem behind one of the better run-blocking lines in FBS, and the passing game improved enough to avoid serving as a liability. Jones and Brandon Smith built a nice connection on passing downs, and Texas State’s offense clicked at a much higher level, finishing 79th in Off. S&P+.

Jones and Lowe are back for a third go-round, and I haven’t found anything saying Nutall isn’t going to be back. With four of last year’s top five wideouts back as well, plus some exciting JUCO transfers and seven linemen with starting experience, it would be surprising if TXST didn’t take another step forward offensively.

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Though many of his best games have come against awful defenses, it would be difficult to see Jones losing his job any time soon. He rushed for at least 50 yards in seven of 12 games last year and produced a passer rating of 124 or better nine times, and he now has almost two full years of starting experience under his belt.

Franchione has stocked up on intriguing QB options, so at the very least he can let Jones run the ball without crippling fear of injury.

Utah transfer Micah Thomas and incoming freshman L.G. Williams are each former three-star Composite recruits, and UTEP transfer Blaire Sullivan saw action in El Paso in 2012 and 2013 (combined: 36 for 69 for 573 yards, three touchdowns and five interceptions; 412 rushing yards). The battle for second string on the depth chart could be impressive this spring.

Texas State is still working through depth issues on defense. But few mid-major teams have the combination of depth, experience, and apparent effectiveness that Texas State has on offense. The Bobcats not only boast a wealth of options at quarterback, but they return Lowe and (in theory) Nutall at running back and welcome a Composite three-star freshman (Bralon Hutchison) to the mix.

At receiver, they bring back Brandon Smith, C.J. Best, Jafus Gaines, and Demun Mercer (combined: 105 catches, 1,120 yards) and welcome three-star JUCO transfers Kwamane Bowens and Chris French and three-star freshman Justin Gamble.

And on the offensive line, they must replace three-year starting guard Charlie Will Tuttle but bring back all-conference tackle Adrian Bellard, boast 96 career starts (among seven players), and introduce former Composite three-star Tryston Mizerak into the rotation. Offensive co-coordinators Mike Schultz and Jeff Conway have a lot to work with here, and if 2014’s progress is any indication, this will be a fun offense to watch.

The offense did well, and after improving from 109th to 99th in Def. S&P+ in 2013, the defense plummeted to 117th. The Bobcats gave up too many big plays on the ground and allowed too much efficiency through the air, and while the defense was strong on passing downs, it couldn’t force many.

Star linebacker Michael Orakpo barely played because of injury, and there was shuffling throughout; of the 19 players who averaged at least one tackle per game, only nine played in all 12 games. That wasn’t the worst injury luck in the conference, but it wasn’t particularly good.

With the offense seemingly in good shape, eyes will turn to the defensive side of the ball once again. Defensive coordinator John Thompson is a veteran hand -- his first DC job began in 1983, and he’s led defenses at 10 schools, including four in the SEC -- and his ASU defenses were fun and aggressive. Experience, better health, and a talent influx from solid recruiting could all help the cause.

Ten of the top 12 defensive linemen are scheduled to return in 2015, as are three of the top four linebackers and eight of the top 10 defensive backs. Looking purely from a “number of guys who have seen the field” perspective, TXST will have a wonderfully experienced D.

But for a defense that didn’t make enough plays, it sure has to replace a lot: defensive end Michael Odiari (nine sacks), linebacker/tackles leader David Mayo (4.5 tackles for loss, three forced fumbles), and cornerback Craig Mager (six TFLs, 13 passes defensed), to name three.

Jerrid Jeter-Gilmon, Mayo’s likely replacement at SLB, showed some potential, as did sophomore end Jeff Banks. And former star recruits like safety Dila Rosemond and end Cedric Gambrell could be ready for more active roles. Throw in some exciting freshmen -- tackle Javier Edwards, linebackers Bo Anderson and Kerry Walker -- and maybe you’ve got enough to offset the losses.

There are two keys to operating a solid 4-2-5 defense: a stout run front and loads of safeties. Texas State didn’t have the former last year and might not again this year, but at least the latter won’t be a concern.

Colby Targun is gone, but senior Aaron Shaw returns, and junior Germod Williams (four interceptions in 2014) and Rosemond could be ready for larger roles. Plus, corner David Mims II is back after an aggressive season (3.5 TFLs, eight passes defensed). If the defensive front can hold up against the run and approximate Odiari’s lost production in the pass rush, the secondary could thrive.

Lots of “coulds” and “ifs” and “maybes” in this defensive section, huh?

Texas State had one of the better field position teams in the Sun Belt despite an inefficient defense, and special teams had a large role in that.

Will Johnson was a strong place-kicker and an outstanding punts and kickoffs guy, and his loss could be significant. Punt returner Craig Mager will be missed as well, though that will depend on whether the defense can actually force punts. Still, if the offense and defense are both more efficient but the kicking game falls apart, TXST could regress.

On paper, Texas State’s 2015 team looks a lot like its 2014 team. The offense and defense could both improve a bit, but that might be offset by special teams losses. Still, the Bobcats were a top-100 team last year, and you can win plenty of games ranking in the 90s in the Sun Belt.

At least, you can unless you have an unfavorable schedule. And the schedule makers weren’t kind to the Bobcats, who must play at Arkansas State, Georgia Southern and UL-Lafayette and who miss Troy. With non-conference trips to Florida State and Houston, that leaves one especially winnable road game (Idaho) and puts a lot of pressure on the Bobcats to win at home to again reach bowl eligibility. That means beating South Alabama and matching any upset home loss with an upset road win.

Texas State should have the offense to hang with anybody in the conference; the Bobcats proved that last year, particularly with the late-season romp over Arkansas State. But while the defense could improve, there are no guarantees, and the schedule might preclude another seven-win season.

Franchione has done an impressive job of moving Texas State up a weight class and improving the win percentages. His recruiting suggests there are more impressive things on the horizon, but it’s not hard to see 2015 as more of a water-treading season.