The big 2015 CMU football guide: The most volatile team in the MAC?

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Dan Enos is a Michigan native who played for Michigan State and coached at Lakeland, Northern Michigan, Western Michigan, and MSU before landing the Central Michigan head job in 2010. Enos came in just as Dan LeFevour and company were leaving, and after three MAC titles in four years before his arrival, CMU went 6-18 in Enos’ first two seasons.

After going 3-8 in one-possession games in 2010-11, CMU went 6-0 in such games in 2012-13. The Chippewas went 7-6 and won the Motor City Bowl in 2012, then went 6-6 in 2013. And after a 2-3 start to 2014, the Chippewas caught fire, winning five of six to reach bowl eligibility for a third straight year.

Enos’ young team nearly pulled off the greatest comeback in college football history in the Bahamas Bowl, erasing a 49-14 deficit and completing the greatest Hail Mary you’ll ever see before failing on the two-point conversion. The game was an extreme example of the arc of Enos’ CMU career: start slow, finish strong. After, Enos said, “A Dan Enos team don’t quit, and we don’t quit.”

A month later, with Signing Day approaching, Enos took the offensive coordinator position at Arkansas.

There were plenty of legitimate reasons for this move. For one, CMU’s president was evidently resisting Enos’ efforts for a contract extension. But there’s another obvious reason: you can make more money -- in some cases, lots more money -- as a major-conference coordinator than as a MAC head coach. And if the money continues to shift in the direction it has of late, winning at the MAC level will only get harder, which makes “power conference coordinator” a safer bet for the résumé than “Central Michigan head coach.”

I could go on and on about why this is a scary thing for the future of college football, but I’ll just link to Item 43 here instead.

CMU did find a replacement, 51-year-old John Bonamego. The CMU grad has a unique résumé of his own, having served as an assistant coach everywhere from Verona to Maine to Detroit. He spent most of the last 16 seasons as an NFL special teams coordinator.

There’s no telling how he might perform as a head coach because this is his first opportunity, but he’s an alum, he’s been around the block, and if he succeeds, he’ll probably stay. Upon his hire, he said, “Since I left CMU in 1987, my dream job was to be the head coach of the Central Michigan football program.“ For now, that’s enough.

Bonamego was hired after Signing Day, but his staff pulled off something remarkable: it kept almost the entire recruiting class together. Without a head coach. CMU’s class ranked sixth in the MAC, and the Chippewas signed 10 players who were given three stars by the 247Sports Composite. They signed only six such athletes in the previous two classes combined.

We hear the “You commit to a school ...” line pretty often, but this is one of the clearest examples you’ll ever see. Combined with a young, athletic set of returnees, the signing class seemed to give CMU an unlikely sense of momentum. That only matters until Bonamego proves himself, but it’s something.

Momentum wasn’t CMU’s friend early. The Chippewas barely survived Chattanooga, then rolled over Purdue in Week 2. They lost to Syracuse and Kansas, two teams that were basically Purdue’s equals, by a combined 66-13. They were outgained by 157 yards in a two-touchdown loss to Toledo and approached the midseason point with a 2-3 mark that, considering the win over Purdue, was pretty frustrating.

But as is sometimes the case with young teams, things began to click.

CMU destroyed Ohio and eventual MAC champion NIU to a degree not properly described by the respective final scores; the Chippewas won by a combined 35 points, yes, but outgained one mediocre team and one downright solid one by a combined 1,019 yards to 528. They held Ohio to 187 yards, then gained 552 on NIU.

These were dominant performances, followed by outgaining Ball State by 139 yards and losing because of some unlucky fumble bounces. The momentum slowed a bit with less impressive wins over Buffalo and Miami, and despite nearly even yardage, CMU fell by 12 points at home to WMU to finish the regular season.

But after laying some pretty frustrating eggs in September, CMU was one the MAC’s best teams from October 4 forward.

CMU’s offensive numbers weren’t incredible, but after averaging 4.6 or fewer yards per play three times in the first four games, the Chippewas were held under 5.9 per play just twice in their final nine.

Cooper Rush, who attempted every pass, produced a passer rating under 120 in three of four games, then hit 144 or higher in eight of nine. The run game was efficient enough to attempt balance, and the passing game was one of the most efficient in the mid-major ranks. By the end, each of Rush’s top four targets had averaged at least 8.9 yards per target, and seven of the top eight produced catch rates of at least 60 percent.

Considering this success, both on the field and in recruiting, it makes sense that Bonamego would work to keep the staff together. Morris Watts remains the offensive coordinator, and receivers coach Mose Rison, running backs coach Gino Guidugli, and tight ends coach Sherrone Moore all stayed. Bonamego added former Colorado State OL coach Derek Frazier as well. Considering the late coaching change, there’s continuity, and there’s reason to assume good things.

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Cooper Rush found his rhythm against Toledo. He was 24-for-31 for 291 yards against Toledo, 18-for-23 for 223 against Eastern Michigan, 16-for-23 for 218 against Miami (Ohio), and 28-for-45 for 493 yards and seven touchdowns against WKU. His completion rate was 58 percent three games into the year, but he completed 62 percent or more in eight of his final 10 games.

Such a breakthrough isn’t unheard of for a quarterback like Rush, who started most of his freshman season as well. And from the beginning, Rush was hinting at a high ceiling as a wheeler-dealer type. In 2013, he took a lot of sacks, threw a lot of interceptions, and made a lot of huge plays on passing downs.

Rush curbed some of his negative tendencies. He cut his sack rate from 7.7 percent to 6.8 and his interception rate from 4.8 to percent to 3.4. Meanwhile, his completion rate went from 57 to 64 percent, and his yards per completion held mostly steady (13.3 in 2013, 13.0 in 2014). His growth was what you hope to see from a confident quarterback, and not only does he have two more years, he’s got an exciting supporting cast. He might have to deal with some shakiness on the offensive line, where three starters return but all-conference guard Andy Phillips does not, but he’ll be feeding the ball to some exciting athletes.

You never really know how a player is going to fare moving from strong backup to starter. Sometimes the more frequent touches and targets simply expose a player’s weaknesses, and sometimes his per-touch rates remain strong. CMU’s 2015 fate might depend on some exciting backups providing more latter than former. CMU must replace its best running back (Thomas Rawls), receiver (Titus Davis), and tight end (Deon Butler), all three of whom posted lovely stats in 2014.

But on a per-touch basis, the backups were nearly as good. Sophomore Devon Spalding had a bit of a fumbles issue (many do as freshmen) but showed some exciting potential explosiveness. So did junior Maurice Shoemaker-Gilmore in 2013 before getting buried on the depth chart last fall.

Meanwhile, tight end Ben McCord averaged 11.0 yards on about one pass per game, Jesse Kroll thrived as the No. 2 option behind Davis, and slot receiver Anthony Rice was one of the MAC’s most efficient receivers as the No. 4 option. If one of two three-star freshmen (either Brandon Childress or Jamil Sabbagh) can hit Mount Pleasant ready to make a contribution, this receiving corps could be fine. It won’t be as deep as last year’s, but the first string could be every bit as dangerous.

One casualty of Enos’ move: defensive coordinator Joe Tumpkin. Instead of waiting around, Tumpkin took a job as Colorado’s safeties coach. That’s a shame for CMU. While the Chippewas’ defense had plenty of holes, they had one of the nation’s more exciting run defenses. CMU ranked 24th in Rushing S&P+ -- fifth among mid-majors behind Air Force (sixth), Louisiana Tech (12th), UTSA (17th), and Utah State (20th) -- and Tumpkin used the front to craft a damn-the-torpedoes style. The glitches were enormous, but there was plenty of payoff.

The Chippewas attacked the run on standard downs, and should Greg Colby choose to remain aggressive in this way, he should have the pieces. Eight of last year’s top nine linemen return, including dynamic ends Joe Ostman and Blake Serpa (combined: 22.5 tackles for loss, six passes defensed, four forced fumbles) and exciting tackle Jabari Dena.

There could be questions at linebacker, where CMU really played three guys, with two of them gone. Tim Hamilton does return, but we don’t know anything about the others who will be stocking the two-deep. Still, a great line makes a linebacking corps’ job a lot easier, and CMU might have the best line in the MAC, at least as it pertains to stopping the run.

Bonamego’s hire of Colby gives CMU an interesting staff with energetic position coaches and absurdly experienced coordinators. Colby’s coaching career began at the high school level in 1974, while Morris Watts’ began as a high school assistant in 1961. Combined, that’s 93 years of coaching experience (though you could say that Watts and I have combined for 53). It perhaps isn’t all good experience -- coaching at so many different places means you’ve probably been fired a lot -- but Watts’ performance last year does suggest this could work out.

CMU’s defensive front was tough to move, but it wasn’t good at rushing the passer. CMU ranked a healthy 32nd in Adj. Line Yards but a sickly 106th in Adj. Sack Rate. That set the table for a big run-and-pass disparity: 24th in Rushing S&P+, 102nd in Passing S&P+. Only three Chippewa defenders managed more than two sacks, and one of them (Justin Cherocci) is gone.

Unless a master blitzer emerges or Colby works some tactical magic, you’re looking at similar sack rates this year. That means improvement in pass defense is going to have to come from the secondary, one that must replace four of its top eight from last year.

The return of safety Tony Annese is a good thing, and Brandon Greer and Josh Cox have shown potential at cornerback. But while CMU’s havoc rates and play-making ability were solid, this was an “either make plays or give them up” defense.

And hey, if you’re going to have a flawed defense, you might as well be entertaining; CMU was the opposite of a bend-don’t-break unit, and the components for such a personality return.

Of the five primary special teams ratings above (not including opponents’ FG efficiency, over which you have little control), CMU ranked 96th or worse in four. And the Chippewas kind of cheated in ranking 12th in FG efficiency -- yes, Brian Eavy made eight of nine field goal attempts, but a) CMU attempted fewer field goals than almost anybody in the country, and b) Eavey also missed two PATs. So that’s a bit of a mirage.

Bonamego has been one of the country’s best special teams whisperers through the years (otherwise he wouldn’t have continued getting NFL jobs), but we’ll see how much of an impact he can have on this aspect of the game while, you know, also being head coach.

I haven’t mentioned Bonamego’s name much. He is a complete unknown when it comes to head coaching capabilities. That he reached age 50 without getting a head gig is perhaps a red flag or a matter of circumstance. That his staff was mostly put together by someone else could be awkward. That he hasn’t coached at the college level since leaving Army’s staff in 1998 is disconcerting. If he isn’t up for the job, then it doesn’t matter how excited he is to be CMU’s head coach.

But we’ll find out if our suspicions are correct. All we know for now is that CMU is of a similar quality as it was last year. Losing Titus Davis, Thomas Rawls, Andy Phillips, Justin Cherocci, Leterrius Walton, Deon Butler, and company is not a good thing, but the second string returns virtually intact, and a lot of last year’s backups posted numbers when given the opportunity. And Cooper Rush might be the real deal.

Looking at the schedule, CMU is all but guaranteed another slow start. While the Chippewas face six opponents that ranked 90th or worse in last year’s F/+ rankings, five come in the final six games. If Bonamego can keep morale at a decent level, his squad could do damage late, perhaps even reaching bowl eligibility for a fourth straight year.