The big 2015 Northern Illinois football guide: Still the king until proven otherwise

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According to the 247Sports Composite, either Toledo or Western Michigan has signed the best recruiting class in the MAC for each of the last five years. Ball State won 19 games in 2012-13. Central Michigan was the hottest team in the league for much of October and November. The MAC West is as deep and competitive as a mid-major division can get.

Meanwhile, Northern Illinois had to deal with replacing its second stud quarterback in three years and revolving doors at the skill positions. According to the F/+ rankings, the Huskies fielded their worst team since 2009. They failed to play like a better than 53rd-percentile team in any of their first 10 games. They began conference play with a lackluster win over Kent State and a blowout home loss to CMU. After four straight division crowns for the school from DeKalb, the time was right for a new champion.

But guess who dominated field position and kept Toledo at arm’s length in mid-November? And with the division on the line, guess who scored the final 24 points against Western Michigan on the road?

And guess who went to Detroit and took their third MAC title in four years? Come at the king, you best not miss. Because in 2015, the Huskies actually have better experience and fewer questions than they did a year ago.

Western Michigan’s talent base appears more than formidable, and if we keep saying “This is Toledo’s year!” then we may eventually be proven correct. But while NIU might not have the same recruiting credentials, the Huskies have the rings.

They have survived losing head coaches Jerry Kill and Dave Doeren and quarterbacks Chandler Harnish and Jordan Lynch. In 2014, they survived losing their No. 1 receiver early. They survived that early blowout loss. They survived playing sketchy ball for a couple of months and peaked in November as usual. They stared down division contenders who just knew that this was the year for somebody else to take over.

Every year presents a new set of challenges, but while Rod Carey’s Huskies have serious question marks on the offensive line and both Toledo and WMU have plenty of athleticism, you don’t make a lot of money betting against NIU, do you?

When we’re dealing with 12 to 14 data points, we can stare at a chart and convince ourselves of any number of trends. For NIU, there are two ways to look at 2014: either the Huskies found fifth gear in November, or they were the same team all year except for three dud performances. Or both.

To put it kindly, NIU’s quarterback situation was fluid to start. Matt McIntosh failed to light the world aflame. He was replaced by Anthony Maddie against Northwestern, then Drew Hare took over and looked good. Hare took the reins for the rest of the year while Maddie served as a change-of-pace guy and McIntosh toyed with the idea of moving to safety. But Hare’s production slowed dramatically until the lightbulb came on against Toledo.

The defense began to find its groove against EMU, the MAC’s confidence booster, and after allowing 6.3 or greater yards per play in four of the first seven games, the Huskies allowed greater than 5.1 just once the rest of the way.

This could have been a young team taking lumps, then gelling. Or it could have been a young team that laid eggs.

Five of NIU’s 14 games were decided by 10 or fewer points, while five were decided by 17 or more. That the Huskies went 5-0 in the tighter games allowed them to win the West again, but for much of the season, either it all worked or nothing did.

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

At first glance, Hare’s stats scream “NIU Quarterback!” He completed 60 percent with little risk and few mistakes, and he proved capable of exploiting running opportunities. He compared quite well to Jordan Lynch’s 2013 stat line:

But the stats point to where the two differed. Hare’s highs might be as high as Lynch’s, but his lows were lower. And while NIU was an efficiency machine in 2013, the Huskies had to constantly bail themselves out of jams on passing downs. That Hare proved adept at doing just that might bode well for the future, but it was a hindrance.

Hare also battled a hell of a slump. After completing 63 percent at 15.4 yards per (with a 150 or better passer rating each week) through three games, he slipped to 60 percent at 10.7 for the next six contests (passer rating at 137 or lower for five of the six). He was fine against Miami (Ohio) and awful against Eastern Michigan and Ball State. He still wasn’t throwing picks, but the ball wasn’t going anywhere. And then he went 29-for-45 for 367 yards and three scores against Toledo and Ohio.

That he came close to Lynch’s averages after beginning the year as a third-stringer says a lot about his potential. But the next step is finding consistency.

Everything you need to know about NIU’s last two offenses comes by comparing each year’s No. 1 receiver.

With a less trustworthy quarterback, NIU favored a more predictable, run-heavy approach, even run-heavier than in 2013, when Lynch and Cameron Stingily combined for 485 carries.

But in Lewis, Lynch had one of the more reliable possession receivers in the country. In Brown, NIU had a big-play threat. Lewis and Brown played their roles on the 2013 offense, but Lewis was lost for the season with injury after just two games and four catches last year. He returns for a second senior go-round, and he could provide a level of efficiency and quick-pass bounciness that NIU didn’t have.

Of course, NIU needs a new big-play guy. Be it Juwan Brescacin, a senior with flashes of brilliance, North Dakota transfer Kenny Golladay (two years at UND: 99 catches, 1,313 yards, nine touchdowns), or a freshman like blue-chipper (by MAC standards) Spencer Tears, NIU will have to figure out how to stretch the field.

The Huskies will also have to figure out how to distribute on the ground. Of last year’s top three backs, who combined for 347 carries, those responsible for 250 carries are gone. Big Joel Bouagnon returns; per carry, he was the best. Meanwhile, a trio of exciting freshmen will battle.

Throughout NIU’s run, you have been able to count on three things: an awesome quarterback (at least through 2013), a small offensive line, and an awesome offensive line. NIU ranked ninth in Adj. Line Yards and third in Adj. Sack Rate in 2013, and despite losing Lynch and an all-conference guard, the Huskies ranked a decent 53rd and 27th, respectively, and produced two all-conference picks.

This year will be a test for third-year offensive line coach Joe Tripodi. All-MAC center Andrew Ness and guard Aidan Conlon return for their fourth years in the starting lineup. But the three other starters are gone, as are two backups. A good percentage of last year’s two-deep has been picked clean, and after some good injury luck, a couple of injuries could have NIU dipping into a pool of freshmen and redshirt freshmen. There are some exciting youngsters, but that doesn’t mean you want many in your starting lineup.

One other thing you notice above: size. In 2014, NIU’s nine primary returnees averaged 6’4, 286. This year, the top six returnees average 6’4, 307. On both sides, there seems to be a focus on building weight up. Combined with a bigger than normal back in Joel Bouagnon, NIU could have a power aspect that it hasn’t.

NIU’s philosophy under Jay Niemann, the Huskies’ coordinator for the last four seasons, has been simple: give up the short stuff and swarm when the opponent makes a mistake. During their 2012 Orange Bowl run, they combined huge havoc numbers (102 tackles for loss, 84 passes defensed, 16 forced fumbles) with solid big-play prevention. At their best, they’ve been among the nation’s best at taking advantage of miscues.

After falling from 59th to 101st in Def. S&P+ in 2013, NIU rebounded to 80th. Considering most of the growth took place in the second half of the season, that could be reason for excitement. NIU was much worse than normal in the red zone -- after allowing just 3.9 points per scoring opportuniy in 2013, the Huskies allowed 4.9 -- but began to figure out ways to get off the field thanks to a decent pass rush and aggressive corners.

Considering the overall level of experience, it isn’t crazy to assume NIU’s defense will improve again; the Huskies return seven of their top eight linemen, five of six linebackers, and eight of nine defensive backs.

Something to note, though: they were lucky with injuries. Their one loss was a big one (leading returning tackler Jamaal Bass early in the year), but the overall continuity was huge. Those top eight linemen missed a combined three games (all from backups), the top six remaining linebackers missed zero, and the top six DBs missed two. That probably won’t happen two years in a row.

Perez Ford has gone from being listed at 218 pounds to 223. Ben Compton’s gone from 240 to 263. Ladell Fleming went from 194 to 224, Austin Smaha from 210 to 224, Herlandez Corley from 240 to 271, Boomer Mays from 230 to 246, Sean Folliard from 205 to 229, Jamaal Payton from 210 to 230.

We shouldn’t read too much into listed weights, but there does seem to be a shift. NIU improved slightly against the run last year -- from 93rd in Rushing S&P+ to 89th and from 118th in Adj. Line Yards to 103rd -- and one would assume that a little extra girth combined with experience could improve that further.

We’ll see if the pass rush suffers; the Huskies were already looking at replacing their best rusher (Jason Meehan).

NIU was far more efficient against passes than runs, and unless the pass rush falls apart, that should remain the case even with the extra size. The loss of stalwart Dechane Durante at free safety isn’t a good thing, but you can overcome it when everybody else comes back.

Marlon Moore went from sticky corner to solid strong safety, and between Anthony Brooks and Albert Smalls, NIU should have an increasingly solid cornerback opposite Paris Logan. If one of any number of young safety candidates, namely Brandon Mayes or former star recruit Mycial Allen, experiences a breakthrough, this should be one of the MAC’s best backfields ... as long as it gets some help up front.

When Christian Hagan took the place-kicking duties from struggling Tyler Wedel, he brought stability to what was extreme weakness. Hagan was a hell of a punter but struggled with the ball on the ground. If Hagan can remain decent, and Tommylee Lewis can spruce up the return game, it would appear that punting is the only question mark. And in theory, a more efficient offense won’t be as in need of good punting.

NIU’s adjusted record (5-9, which means the Huskies would have beaten a perfectly average team only five times in 14 tries last year) reminds us the Huskies took advantage of weak opponents to put up another strong win total. And their turnovers luck (plus-2.3 points per game) second-order win total of 9.3 games (1.7 below their actual win total), combined with solid defensive injuries luck, suggest fortune was watching out for NIU.

But it might not need to happen again. NIU will face stiff tests from WMU and Toledo, and Ball State should be improved. The division will again be rough, but NIU will probably be a better team. The Huskies scuffled by with inconsistent quarterback play that might be gone, and they get both Ball State and Western Michigan at home.

Honestly, I still might pick WMU to win the MAC West -- I haven’t decided yet, but the Broncos were a lot further along last year than I expected -- but there’s no question that you pick against NIU at your own peril.