The big 2015 Charlotte football guide: Expect shootouts in Year 1 of FBS

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For the second straight year, there will be 128 FBS programs. The shuttering of the UAB program knocked the number down by one, but Charlotte is joining.

Start-ups are no new thing. Success levels have varied dramatically, but in the past couple of decades, quite a few schools have decided not only to add (or re-add) football, but also jump to FBS as quickly as possible.

Charlotte’s timeline has been almost as aggressive as UTSA’s. The build was slow behind the scenes -- the feasibility study took place in 2006, and the trustees voted to get started in November 2008, nearly four full years before the first game -- but the 49ers join having played only 22 games since they disbanded their program the first time around in 1948. Conference USA brought the program aboard based on potential, and now we’ll see how long it takes for the 49ers to reach it.

Are they ready? Probably not. They basically played like a mid-tier Colonial Athletic Association team last year, and while the offense should be able to find its footing, it will likely take the defense a while.

Looking at the programs above, it does appear that pre-FBS success is a decent indicator of the amount of time it will take you to get rolling. USF was competitive quickly, as was UTSA (before a disappointing 2014). FAU won a conference title within a few years, and Old Dominion went 6-6 last fall. South Alabama needed one adjustment year, then found bowl eligibility for two straight seasons. FIU and Georgia State, meanwhile, had to endure drastic early struggles.

Charlotte went 5-6 in both seasons as an FCS independent, cleaning the clocks of lower-rung teams but struggling with squads ranked higher on the FCS scale. The 49ers will be likely starting further ahead than Georgia State did, but there will be growing pains.

Charlotte head coach Brad Lambert is a Jim Donnan and Jim Grobe man. An all-conference defensive back at Kansas State pre-Bill Snyder, Lambert spent two years as an Oklahoma graduate assistant with Donnan (then Barry Switzer’s offensive coordinator), then served as an assistant when Donnan was head coach at Marshall and Georgia.

When Donnan was dumped by the Dawgs, Lambert moved on to Grobe’s staff at Wake Forest. He spent three years as Grobe’s defensive coordinator; his first defense, anchored by all-world linebacker Aaron Curry, ranked seventh in Def. S&P+, and his last two ranked 78th and 77th, respectively.

In March 2011, Lambert was hired as Charlotte’s head man. And it shouldn’t be surprising that his staff features plenty of names from previous stops. Defensive coordinator Matt Wallerstedt was a fellow K-State defender in the 1980s. Three defensive coaches (Curry, James Adams, Napoleon Sykes) were all Wake Forest linebackers in the mid-2000s. Offensive assistants Joe Tereshinski and Damien Gary played for Georgia, and Tereshinski was previously a Wake graduate assistant. So was director of football operations Trevor Lambert. Tight ends coach Phil Ratliff played for Marshall in the 1990s.

There’s something to be said for hiring those familiar to you, and Lambert has done that to an almost startling degree.

This might only be Charlotte’s third year of existence, but the 49ers packed about three seasons’ worth of drama into 11 games, for better or worse.

Against a schedule that was both diverse and lacking an FBS opponent, it’s hard to grasp what to make of Charlotte’s 2014. That’s where Jeff Sagarin comes in. Sagarin’s 2014 rankings give us an idea of where the 49ers fell in the Division I hierarchy.

Charlotte ranked 185th in Sagarin’s ratings. That’s not good, but the 49ers had company in the FBS ranks:

165. Tulsa (2-10)
169. Kent State (2-11)
172. UNLV (2-11)
174. Idaho (1-10)
178. Troy (3-9)
181. New Mexico State (2-10)
183. UConn (2-10)
185. Charlotte (5-6)
201. Georgia State (1-11)
207. SMU (1-11)
208. Eastern Michigan (2-10)

Last year’s worst Conference USA team, North Texas, ranked 144th, so it’s clear that Charlotte will begin at the bottom of the conference totem pole. But as is usually the case with start-ups, the 49ers basically return everybody and will do so again in 2016. That should all but guarantee improvement. How much?

An unsuccessful quarterback in a Jeff Mullen offense is a bit of a rarity. Charlotte’s offensive coordinator and a longtime Grobe disciple, Mullen served on Grobe’s staff throughout the 1990s, then moved with him to Wake Forest in 2001. He served as quarterbacks coach and mentored Riley Skinner when the freshman helped to lead Wake to its stunning 2006 ACC title. In two seasons with Mullen, Skinner completed 69 percent of his passes, and Wake Forest went 20-7.

In 2008, when Bill Stewart was hired to replace Rich Rodriguez at West Virginia, he brought Mullen on as his offensive coordinator. There was a drop-off in WVU’s production as it got used to a new style, but with Pat White as quarterback in 2008 and Jarrett Brown and Geno Smith taking over in 2009, the Mountaineers still ranked 51st and 46th, respectively, in Off. S&P+. The run game fell apart in 2010, and after ranking 81st in Off. S&P+ in 2010, Mullen was dumped in favor of Dana Holgorsen.

Mullen’s first project as Charlotte’s O.C. has been quarterback Matt Johnson. An injury knocked him out for the latter stages of 2014, but Johnson has put together an interesting résumé thus far. He completed 60 percent and posted a decent 130.8 passer rating as a freshman in 2013, then opened things up. His completion percentage dropped to 52 percent, but he averaged nearly 17 yards per completion, and his passer rating rose to 136.4 before his injury. Backup Lee McNeill was a little more efficient (59 percent completion rate) and a little less explosive (13.5 yards per completion), but the offense as a whole was more aggressive last fall.

Mullen’s Charlotte offenses have been almost 50-50 between run and pass; thanks to prolific Kalif Phillips rushing for nearly 1,500 yards last year, Charlotte got to work in more play-action and vertical passing. With just about everybody back, I assume we’ll see the same approach.

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

If you’re going to stink, you might as well be entertaining. Charlotte went 5-6 and ranked 185th in Sagarin, but the 49ers did so while scoring at least 33 points in nine of 11 games. And while the per-game averages should fall a bit with the upgrade in competition, don’t be surprised if the 49ers threaten to post Old Dominion-esque splits in 2015 -- ODU has ranked 55th and 57th in Off. S&P+ over the last two years while ranking 125th each year in Def. S&P+.

Johnson and McNeill return; Johnson has thus far been a fascinating contradiction. He was efficient one year and explosive the next, and in 2014, he proved adept in the run game (7.2 yards per carry) while taking almost no sacks. That’s a rare combination. With Johnson and Phillips in the backfield and six players with starting experience (90 career starts) up front, the run game should find success.

And if the run game is working, there’s no reason to think that the passing game will lag. Austin Duke is another walking contradiction (a super-explosive slot receiver), and those responsible for about 84 percent of last year’s targets return. And one of the programs most highly touted recruits (three-star redshirt freshman Workpeh Kofa) could work into the rotation as well.

When building from scratch, it sometimes takes you a while to find the big bodies you need in the trenches. That hasn’t necessarily been an issue for Lambert and company. While depth appears to be questionable -- Charlotte might only be a couple of injuries away from playing a 255-pound guard or a 240-pound tackle (going by listed weights, anyway) -- the six returning players with starting experience average 6’4, 299. That’ll do.

This unit cleared the way for Kalif Phillips to put up huge numbers in 2014, and it should be able to hold its own this fall.

To a degree, it’s the same story on defense, too. The unit had its issues, but size wasn’t one of them; the top six returning members of the three-man line averaged 6’3, 271. That’s a little light for a 3-4 line, but it’s not awful. And it has a potential star in active, 290-pound tackle Larry Ogunjobi.

“Karma’s a bad deal.” If you recognize new defensive coordinator Matt Wallerstedt’s name, it might not be because of something good. Wallerstedt resigned as Kliff Kingsbury’s defensive coordinator at Texas Tech last September, and in November, interim DC Mike Smith accused him of sending Tech’s defensive signals to Tech opponents.

There’s not much proof of that -- Tech allowed 499 yards and 49 points to Arkansas in Wallerstedt’s last game, then proceeded to stink for most of the rest of the season too -- but there was bitterness in the aftermath of his departure. Tech ranked 76th in Def. S&P+ in 2013, Wallerstedt’s first year in charge, then sank to 114th last year.

Wallerstedt’s résumé is a mixed bag. He was associate head coach at Akron when the Zips made a surprising run to the 2005 MAC title, then he spent a couple of years as part of Ron Prince’s flagging tenure at Kansas State. He moved on to Air Force and served as defensive co-coordinator with Tim DeRuyter in 2009, when the Falcons surged to 25th in Def. S&P+. DeRuyter left for Texas A&M, and the Falcons slipped to 59th, then 111th, with only Wallerstedt in charge. But when he became Kevin Sumlin’s linebackers coach at A&M in 2012, he headed up a destructive unit.

So it’s hard to know in advance what he might be capable of at Charlotte.

Wallerstedt defenses want to be aggressive. Tech finished 2013 with 68 passes defensed (24th in FBS) and 82 tackles for loss (42nd). After seven games that year, the Red Raiders were on a top-10 pace in terms of TFLs -- they had 54, 7.7 per game.

Charlotte’s defense will have experience on its side. The 49ers return their top six linemen, seven of nine linebackers, and eight of 10 defensive backs. And quite a few of the top returnees seem to have aggressiveness. Larry Ogunjobi led the defense with five sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss from the nose tackle position, Mark Pettit provided a decent threat from end, linebackers Dustin Crouser and Karrington King combined for 11 tackles for loss as freshman, and undersized OLB Daquan Lucas was strong in run support. Plus, safety Branden Dozier and corners Tank Norman and Greg Cunningham combined for five interceptions and 23 break-ups. There’s a lot to like.

Of course, despite all of this disruption, Charlotte still allowed 32 points and 478 yards per game. The 49ers didn’t allow a ton of big plays, but they couldn’t get off the field -- opponents completed 63 percent of their passes and converted 46 percent of their third downs last year. (Charlotte’s offense converted only 33 percent.) Outside of Ogunjobi and Pettit, the pass rush was nonexistent, and opposing quarterbacks were able to find receivers when they needed to.

This led to quite a disparity: Charlotte averaged 72 snaps per game while opponents averaged 89. When the offense failed, it failed quickly, and the defense faded dramatically. The 49ers allowed 118 combined points in the second and third quarters last year and 105 in the fourth.

So the key to relative success in Wallerstedt’s first year could come down to how he is (or isn’t) able to generate pressure on passing downs. If he can, the secondary might be able to hold up. But that’s a significant “if.”

A defense that cannot get off the field on third downs is about the worst thing imaginable for the field position battle. Combine that with horrific punting numbers -- Arthur Hart averaged 36.3 yards per punt, which is awful even when you’re never allowing returns -- and that’s scary.

Charlotte appears to have strong potential in the return game, and place-kicker Blake Brewer has a solid leg (one that he was asked to show off a few too many times: he attempted 25 field goals in just 11 games, a per-game average that would have ranked fourth in FBS last year). But the odds of Charlotte winning field position in 2015 could be long.

Charlotte’s first FBS schedule is relatively manageable. The 49ers face seven opponents that ranked 96th or worse in F/+ last year (four at home), and I’d be surprised if they didn’t beat at least a couple of them. The offense could be a lot of fun, and Charlotte got shootout experience last year.

A slow start could be deadly, as five of the seven worst opponents come up in the first seven games. Beating Georgia State in Atlanta would be a fun way to start FBS residence, and the 49ers boast enough experience that they should be close to a finished product in September. But if they fail, and they can’t take down MTSU or FAU in September, then 2-10 probably becomes the ceiling.

Charlotte is well-placed for football competence, and the 49ers showed enough potential to suggest they’ll avoid the kind of dreadful FBS start that Georgia State has suffered. The 2015 season might not feature many wins, but it should set them up for a senior-studded 2016.