The big 2015 Ball State football guide: Recovering after the first step backward

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The skill positions are stocked, and the line is more experienced, and if the secondary can stay healthy, the defense might be able to improve. The schedule cooperates -- it features eight games against teams projected 101st or worse -- and the foundation should ensure a third straight bowl game.

Whether they compete for the MAC title will depend on the quarterback. It’s not a guarantee that Ball State actually has one ready. You don’t get very far doubting Pete Lembo, but BSU could take a step backward.

For a program that went 2-10 as recently as 2009, a slip to 5-7 isn’t the end of the world. But it was a step back.

Pete Lembo inherited from Stan Parrish a program that had gone 6-18 in its previous two seasons, went 6-6 in his first campaign, then won 19 games in 2012-13. He had plenty of interesting pieces in 2014 -- a trio of rushers who had combined for nearly 2,000 yards, a 1,000-yard receiver, most of the back seven from an admittedly shaky defense -- but the trenches had question marks, and for the first time in the Lembo era, he’d start with a new quarterback.

There was improvement, but the quarterbacking was a tripping point early. The bigger problem was a defense that Lembo has never improved to any serious degree, but the offense could no longer bail the D out. BSU topped 24 points once in its first five games, and two quarterbacks alternated between strong and awful. BSU began 1-5 before rebounding, but it wasn’t enough to secure a third straight bowl.

I’ve spoken highly of Lembo thanks to his ability to lead incredibly different programs (Lehigh, Elon, Ball State) to strong records. The 2014 season didn’t do much to change my mind, but it did point out ongoing issues. BSU lacked in the trenches last year, and in four years in Muncie, Lembo has yet to field a defense that ranks better than 88th in Def. S&P+.

Quarterback will likely come around soon, and with the experience on hand -- two experienced running backs, last year’s top six wideouts, six offensive linemen with starting experience, and a defense saturated in juniors and seniors -- it’s difficult to see Ball State missing a bowl for a second straight year. The middle of the MAC is crowded, and the Cardinals would be better off in the MAC East as opposed to the loaded MAC West, but Lembo’s Cardinals should rebound, even if “rebound” means 7-5 or so.

There are three ways to experience a setback season. Your team either stinks from start to finish, starts strong before falling apart due to depth or injury issues, or starts slow with new pieces before beginning to figure things out. If you have to experience one, you’d prefer Door No. 3.

The Cardinals began 1-5, nearly scoring one of the season’s least likely wins in a 17-13 defeat at Iowa; the Hawkeyes outgained BSU by a 455-219 margin but trailed late because of three missed field goals and two fumbles that led directly to 10 Cardinal points. The next week, the Cardinals lost to FCS Indiana State.

A few weeks later, BSU scored an almost equally unlikely win, holding on for a 32-29 victory over CMU despite a yardage margin of 426-287 in favor of the Chippewas. BSU recovered all four fumbles (including one at the CMU 1).

Following the sketchy CMU win, things improved quickly.

BSU’s luck evened out against NIU; NIU recovered four of five fumbles and picked off three passes, scoring three times on drives that began in BSU territory. And the Cardinals laid a giant egg against an improving UMass squad.

That put a damper on what was otherwise undeniable late-season improvement. Freshman quarterback Jack Milas looked great against Eastern Michigan but got hurt, then sophomore Ozzie Mann torched Bowling Green. After playing like one of FBS’ worst teams through seven games, Ball State played like Ball State over the last five.

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

If you ignore the opponent, you might be confused as to why Ozzie Mann was benched in the first place. A sophomore, Mann beat out Jack Milas for the starting job and produced a passer rating of at least 130 in three of his first five games. But two of those three were against Colgate (130.2) and Army (130.1), against whom producing such a rating isn’t particularly impressive. Meanwhile, he was 24-for-46 for 266 yards (rating: 107.9) in the loss to Indiana State, and the passing game was dreadful against Iowa (86.1).

At 1-4, Lembo benched him for Milas, who threw four touchdowns (rating: 158.5) in a near-upset of Western Michigan.

Milas couldn’t maintain the pace. Over his next four games, he completed 52 percent with three scores and five interceptions; he was awful against NIU and bad against UMass. He was in the process of lighting up EMU when he got hurt. And Mann came back and went 20-for-29 for 286 yards in a win over BGSU.

So as spring approaches, you could say there is no favorite. Milas and Mann both looked great and terrible, and they’ll have to fend off redshirt freshman and true freshman Riley Neal (each of whom were three-star recruits according to the 247Sports Composite).

If a quarterback emerges, everything else is in place for an offensive rebound. And both looked just promising enough to make you think the winner of the race will be pretty good.

We shouldn’t make too much of experience when experienced pieces weren’t successful the year before.

Running backs Horactio Banks and Teddy Williamson combined for 1,228 yards while backing up Jahwan Edwards in each of the last two seasons, which is nice, but they combined to average 4.1 yards per carry with no efficiency in 2014. Every wideout who caught a pass in 2014 returns, but only two averaged better than a measly 6.4 yards per target (and of those two, Jordan Hogue caught just nine passes).

Still, there’s reason to believe the Ball State skill positions will be fine. You could pin quite a bit of the receivers’ struggles on inconsistency at quarterback -- Jordan Williams averaged 9.7 yards per target in 2013 when Keith Wenning was throwing, and KeVonn Mabon averaged 11.2 per target as a backup in 2012. And you could blame some of BSU’s rushing issues on the poor passing. Ball State passes to set up the run, and when that works, you get numbers like 2013, when Banks averaged 6.3 yards per carry.

Williams, Mabon, and Banks are seniors with pre-2014 success, and they could be pushed by high-profile youngsters like Hogue, backs Darian Green and James Gilbert, and redshirt freshman Devin Reece. Despite iffy averages, the skill positions are the least of BSU’s worries.

If Ball State ever has bad sack rates, you know things have fallen apart. The system Lembo and offensive coordinator Joey Lynch crafted revolves around quick passing that stretches out a defense from side to side.

Keith Wenning completed between 64 and 65 percent of his passes in each of three years under Lembo (when Lynch was just tight ends coach), and while Milas and Mann combined to complete 57 percent, they remained upright. With help from the system, BSU again had one of the best sack rates in the country.

The run stats were horrendous. BSU fell from 85th in Rushing S&P+, 87th in Adj. Line Yards, and 53rd in Stuff Rate in 2013 to 116th, 109th, and 93rd, respectively. And this was with the same set of backs. Without all-conference guard Jordan Hansel and left tackle Matthew Page, the line was not nearly as successful.

BSU returns all five starters on the line (combined career starts: 101), along with a couple of senior backups. This isn’t going to be an amazing line, but it should be closer to 2013 levels.

From last year’s preview:

Kelly inherits an experienced unit, but he’ll have work to do up front. The pass rush was a strength, but end Jonathan Newsome, tackle Nathan Ollie, and linebacker Kenneth Lee, the blitzer of choice, are all gone; they combined for 14.5 sacks and 26 tackles for loss. Ball State’s line will be built around sturdy end Nick Miles, scrubs, and newcomers. If it fares as well as last year’s line against the run, the back seven should have enough to thrive.

The task for new defensive coordinator Kevin Kelly was to figure out how to compensate for losses up front without making BSU’s defense too passive. Because it was his first year, we’ll give him an Incomplete grade.

Ball State’s defense ranked 91st, 88th, and 94th in Lembo’s first three years and fell to 112th in 2014. The Cardinals didn’t prevent big plays better than they did in 2013, and the efficiency dropped off. They fell from 42nd to 116th in Adj. Sack Rate, and the run defense couldn’t pick up the slack. BSU basically had a bend-don’t-break defense whether it wanted to or not.

If experience was an issue, it won’t be in 2015. BSU returns four of its top five linemen, all of its top five linebackers, and four of the top six defensive backs. Losing end Nick Miles and cornerback Eric Patterson isn’t a good thing, but if that’s all you lose, you’re doing alright.

BSU’s starting tackles were 5’11, 270-pound Darnell Smith and 6’1, 247-pound Keenan Noel. Rush end Michael Ayers is under 240 pounds, too. In theory, you can make size like this work in the MAC if you are countering the effects of getting pushed around by slicing into the backfield and creating negative plays.

Well ... BSU ranked 114th in Stuff Rate, 100th in Standard Downs Sack Rate, and 117th in Passing Downs Sack Rate. BSU got pushed around and made none of the big plays to make up for it. Smith was a decent disruptive force (four sacks, 5.5 TFLs), but not enough.

In this way, experience isn’t a great thing. There is size on the second string, where tackles Julian Jackson (305 pounds), Carlutorbantu Zaramo (304) and freshman Kyle Thurmon (271) could battle for playing time. But if we assume last year’s top names will be this year’s top names, BSU could have the same size issues.

Between the early loss of 2013 leader Dae’Shaun Hurley to an ACL tear and the collapse of the pass rush, the defensive backfield was stressed from Day 1. Toss in plenty of in-season injury drama -- of nine DBs to average at least one tackle per game, only three played in all 12 contests, and the Cardinals started four different free safeties -- and BSU had a potential disaster on its hands.

So perhaps the fact that the Cardinals managed to stay about the same in pass defense (104th in Passing S&P+ in 2013, 105th in 2014) is an exciting sign.

While injuries may hurt in the present, they can create depth in the future. With Hurley returning and then-freshman Dedrick Cromartie emerging as a threat, the Cardinals boast four potentially strong safeties, and Tyree Holder proved rather disruptive (two tackles for loss, nine passes defensed) as a sophomore.

In theory, if the front seven offers a bit more resistance, the secondary could shine.

BSU has fielded a top-40 special teams unit in each of the last three seasons and has reaped plenty of field position reward. In 2014, despite drastic inefficiencies on offense and defense, the Cardinals ranked 37th in field position margin (plus-2.4 yards per drive).

We’ll see if this keeps up. Kyle Schmidt’s return means BSU is set at punter, but he wasn’t much of a kickoffs guy in limited opportunities, and the loss of kick return ace Eric Patterson hurts. And while Aaron Hepp does return as punt returner, he wasn’t particularly efficient.

If you assume the best of the offense (scoring more and punting less) and defense (forcing more punts and fewer kickoffs), special teams might not be set up to capitalize on improvement.

Bowling Green ranked 98th in F/+ last year and will face five consecutive MAC opponents that ranked 105th or worse. Ball State ranked 91st, but gets only three such conference opponents; plus, the Cardinals will face all three of last year’s top-70 MAC teams because all three are in the MAC West.

Non-conference home games against VMI and Georgia State even things out a bit, but the bounceback opportunities in the West are mitigated by the conference’s three heavyweights.

That said, in facing five triple-digit teams and hosting both CMU and BGSU, one would think Ball State should be able to get back to bowl eligibility. The defense should have an improved secondary to go along with its sketchy front seven, and the offense has higher prospects with 10 returning starters and a couple of quarterbacks who no longer have to get their feet wet. The ceiling might be something like 7-5, but that would still represent a nice step forward.