Southern California has one of the most loaded talent pools in the nation. Skill players and quarterbacks are of a particularly high quantity, further benefiting from the number of private instructors in the area.
USC and UCLA are surging at the same time. Who survives?
The Bruins return almost everybody from a top-10 team, while the Trojans have an elite QB and a roster nearly rebuilt to standards.
The ability to harness all this into nationally competitive teams has often eluded at least one of LA’s two major college football programs at a time.
But right now, both are prominent at once.
UCLA is used to being an afterthought, but the hire of Jim Mora has changed that. After being replaced at his latest NFL gig by former USC coach Pete Carroll, Mora has a 29-11 start in three years. UCLA’s last three recruiting classes have averaged a No. 12 finish in the 247Sports Composite.
USC, the traditional power, is finally coming out of NCAA sanctions. The Trojans will be closer to 85 scholarships than they’ve been in years, with head coach Steve Sarkisian estimating a count in the 70s, up from the 60s of last year. Recruiting is back as well, with USC landing the Composite’s No. 2 class in 2015.
Since USC put 50-0 on the Bruins in 2011, UCLA has won three in a row. This season, both return lots of starters, including the vast majority of their offensive linemen and many defensive backs.
With experience at so many crucial positions, expectations are high. Both could rank in the preseason top 15. But only one can leave the Coliseum with a chance at a Pac-12 title and Playoff berth.
Battle for L.A. HQs
Who’s got Los Angeles’ best offense?
You'd assume that the Trojans have a major advantage with Cody Kessler back (No. 3 among all returning QBs in passer rating) and UCLA losing Brett Hundley to the NFL ... and you'd be partially right. Experienced QBs make an enormous difference and allow flexibility in attacking familiar opponents.
Kessler had a monster season in 2014. However, he loses his main target, Nelson Agholor, who caught 104 passes for 1,313 yards, potentially both top TEs Randall Telfer (NFL) and Bryce Dixon (rumored to be dismissed), and main running back Javorius "Buck" Allen.
Although Kessler posted gaudy numbers, the offense was geared around the run, with the top two backs (Allen and returning junior Justin Davis) combining for 2,084 rushing yards.
Sarkisian's approach was diverse and power-based, with major play action and run-pass option elements. Thanks to the move of the returning Max Tuerk (6'6, 285 pounds) to center, the Trojans were able to alternate between hammering the interior and working the edge with plays that pulled Tuerk to the perimeter:
With all of those quality pulling blockers, Sarkisian was able to set the table for play action and option throws to really dangerous athletes.
Sarkisian was also clever about lining up Agholor in different spots to ensure Kessler could find him:
On the chalkboard, Nebraska had this play covered, but when the weakside linebacker is covering Agholor on a double move rather than a RB, things look different.
The good news for USC is that Kessler should be capable of carrying more of the burden. Perhaps more importantly, with so many OL returning, it’s likely the USC run game will improve, providing opportunities for the next wave of Trojan skill players.
Their biggest struggle will be running those diverse run schemes if they can’t find an experienced blocking tight end. Fullback Soma Vainuku might find his role increased.
Other than at QB, UCLA has more answers on offense. The Bruins bring back almost all of an offense that ranked No. 18 in Football Outsiders’ S&P+, the highest-rated unit for either of these teams, including the entire line and main skill players. The key word is “almost.”
The main options at quarterback seem to be either Jerry Neuheisel, a redshirt junior and the son of former coach Rick Neuheisel, or five-star freshman Josh Rosen, who enrolled early to compete in spring.
Neuheisel is the safe pick as a player who understands the run-pass/quick game offense of OC Noel Mazzone. He's the equivalent of having a senior point guard in the NCAA Tournament. He'll control tempo and get the ball in the hands of the right people.
Rosen has NFL upside, with his ability to hit narrow windows downfield and make things happen on passing downs. The question is whether he can make the standard-downs decisions that keep the Bruins ahead of the chains. Rosen has the savvy and skills to beat defenses on every snap, but that’s not how the UCLA offense works.
Do the Bruins want to roll with the classic point guard or take a chance on a player who might be the equivalent of Russell Westbrook?
And how about defense?
The Bruins return a lot of pieces here as well, and they have a clearer answer for how to replace their defensive quarterback, middle linebacker Eric Kendricks.
Kendricks was all over the field with 149 tackles, 11.5 tackles for loss, four sacks, three interceptions, two pass break-ups, and a forced fumble. A heady and quick player, he was free to run to the football either behind the stout defensive front ...
... or covering the middle in pattern-matching schemes:
Although Myles Jack was useful to the Bruins in a space-backer role, UCLA's defense is cutting edge in that it makes good use of a great athlete at inside linebacker. Against the spread, it's easier to use inside linebackers on the blitz. Having speed at the position negates many of the spread's favorite ways to attack coverages.
For those reasons, Jack will be moving inside. If he thrives reading backfield flow like he did matching receivers on the edge, the Bruins should carry on their tradition of excellence at linebacker.
The rest of the UCLA defense returns largely intact, with two-thirds of the DL and multiple contributing DBs, including the island of Dr. Moreau.
At USC, the Trojans lose much of what made their defense work while returning players at positions that struggled. The most disruptive members of USC’s 3-4, J.R. Tavai and likely top-five pick Leonard Williams, are moving on.
The main struggles came at outside linebacker, specifically managing run responsibilities in Justin Wilcox's two-deep schemes. While returning OLBs Su'a Cravens and Scott Felix were effective blitzers with a combined 22 tackles for loss and two sacks, they struggled to maintain the edge. Watch the left side here:
In this instance, Cravens doesn’t take care to note the crackback block and gives up the edge. This causes the safety to get caught inside by another WR block, leaving the corner alone to make the tackle too far down the field.
Offenses will feast on the edges if defenses can’t consistently leverage different conflicts. If an offense has real speed, the consequences can be brutal, as USC saw last year.
However, the Trojans do return a lot of experience both at OLB and in the secondary, which usually results in increased awareness and better leverage play.
The biggest key
The Bruins have major advantages in that they return a comparable number of players and have more answers for their losses on defense. But the Bruins don’t even know who their quarterback will be.
If Rosen proves to be everything they hope he will be, the Bruins could hold off the reemergence of USC and keep their seat on the throne of L.A.
If not, those Trojans won’t stay down for much longer.
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