If luck finally goes Utah State’s way, that could mean a Mountain West title

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College football can be a glacier. A majority of the teams that were good 30 or 60 years ago are still good today; the oligarchy’s membership does not turn over often.

Sometimes, though, reality can change. Four seasons ago, in my first year of doing this preview series, I wrote about Utah State as the “Duke of the WAC,” a program that could find encouragement from nearly cracking double-digits in the F/+ rankings. That Gary Andersen had been able to engineer back-to-back four-win seasons was an accomplishment; the Aggies hadn’t finished with a winning record since 1996.

Four springs later, I write about Utah State as one of the sturdiest programs in the mid-major universe. It has survived a coaching change and countless quarterback injuries to craft one of the nation’s steadiest defenses and attend four consecutive bowl games. The Aggies could have fallen off after Andersen went 11-2 in 2012 and departed. They could have folded up shop when they lost star quarterback Chuckie Keeton to injury the next year. They could have lost the plot after Keeton got hurt again, along with virtually every other quarterback on the roster.

Instead, the Aggies cruise along, winners of 30 games in three seasons, one of the only mid-major programs to rank in the F/+ top 60 for four straight years.

USU has proved two conflicting messages. In 2011-12, the Aggies proved what a breakthrough talent at quarterback could do; Chuckie Keeton’s play-making ability (137.4 passer rating as a freshman in 2011, 154.7 with 3,373 passing yards and 619 rushing yards in 2012) gave them the offensive boost they needed to win. But in 2013-14, USU proved that you can win big despite the quarterback position if your support and culture are strong. Three different Aggies threw at least 70 passes in 2013, and four threw at least 35 in 2014, and the train kept rolling.

Now, we get Chuckie back one last time. Keeton was granted an extra year of eligibility after his back-to-back injuries, and that’s an awesome thing for college football. But with or without Keeton, one should assume quality.

Four years after finding hope in a 4-8 record, Utah State gets total benefit of the doubt until proved otherwise.

As stable as Utah State has been, the Aggies have suffered a dropoff in each of the last two years. This was to be expected: in 2013, they suffered coaching turnover and lost Keeton. In 2014, they suffered defensive turnover and lost Keeton. The Aggies had to replace their top tacklers at defensive end, nose guard, and inside linebacker and seven of their top 10 defensive backs. That they fell from fifth in the Def. S&P+ ratings was no shock, but the fact that they only fell to 32nd was encouraging.

That the offense held steady was nice to see. And a drop from 31st in the overall F/+ rankings in 2013 to 52nd in 2014 was a justifiable result.

As the chart above shows, USU was nearly a top-40 team in 12 of 14 games last year but played horrendous football against its two best opponents.

Utah State’s offense averaged 4.4 yards per play against Tennessee and Boise State and 6.1 against everybody else. The defense played well against the Vols (4.9 per play) and poorly against the Broncos (6.1). Was the offense too outmanned against athletic defenses? Was it a performance anxiety issue? You can conclude anything you want from a two-game sample, but there’s no question that these two games dragged USU’s ratings down. With the brightest lights on, they got dominated twice.

Otherwise, they went an unlucky 10-2, losing two games (to Arkansas State and Colorado State, both bowl teams) by a combined 10 points despite winning the statistical battles in both games.

This year, the biggest changes will come in the coaching booth. Matt Wells lost defensive coordinator Todd Orlando to the same position at Houston, and offensive coordinator Kevin McGiven left to become Gary Andersen’s quarterbacks coach at Oregon State.

The names of both replacements are familiar. New defensive coordinator Kevin Clune was USU’s linebackers coach under Andersen and Wells from 2009-13 until the Hawaii defensive coordinator position came open in 2014. His aggressive scheme didn’t find traction on the islands.

Wells brought on former Oklahoma offensive coordinator Josh Heupel to call the shots for Keeton and company. From a “relationships grow stale” standpoint, it was the right time for a change in Norman; Bob Stoops needed new blood following the Sooners’ unlucky slide to 8-5. But on paper, Heupel’s performance as coordinator was solid. He inherited an offense that had ranked ninth in Off. S&P+ in 2010 and he went ninth, fifth, 44th, and 14th. The Sooners got by with smoke and mirrors during their 2013 Sugar Bowl run, but they rebounded last year despite an iffy passing game.

Heupel isn’t bringing much change to the table; or at least, he isn’t bringing the type you might expect.

Last year’s OU offense had a higher pace but ran more than two-thirds of the time on standard downs thanks to the presence of powerful freshman Samaje Perine. There’s no Perine on this roster, but there are options, especially if Keeton’s mobility hasn’t been hurt much by knee injuries. JaLuan Hunt was inefficient, as freshmen tend to be, but he showed lovely explosiveness. Rashad Hall is a big option at 215 pounds, and incoming JUCO transfer Devante Mays is a 5’11, 225-pound bowling ball.

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

It’s sad to realize how efficient Keeton was in 2013, before his first of two knee injuries. Through the first five games, which included three wins and narrow road losses to two Pac-12 opponents (Utah, USC), Keeton had completed 71 percent of his passes for 17 touchdowns and one interception. He was also averaging more than six yards per non-sack carry. Though big plays were hard to come by, his efficiency and decision making were second to none.

The next glimpse was in 2014, rusty and frustrated against Tennessee. The knee injury had knocked him out of spring ball, and he was still getting back up to speed in the third game -- he was 20-for-27 against Wake Forest -- when he went down again.

When 100 percent, Keeton is one of the most efficient quarterbacks in college football. But it’s clear he’s got depth behind him. Despite Darell Garretson’s transfer, Keeton’s 2014 injury gave then-freshman Kent Myers a chance. Myers completed a Chuckie-esque two-thirds of his passes after Garretson and Harrison went down; he was 27-for-31 passing against Hawaii and Wyoming before trailing off, and his mobility led him to the receiver position this spring until Garretson transferred.

Between Myers, mobile redshirt freshman DJ Nelson, and incoming freshman Cade Smith, there are again options behind Keeton. But hopefully we don’t see any of them in 2015.

Hunter Sharp was just beginning to emerge as a big weapon. The JUCO transfer caught two passes for 37 yards in the first two games but proceeded to catch 38 for 605 over the next four. He and Garretson established a connection before Garretson went down, and Sharp’s production slumped. But between Sharp, LaJuan Hunt, and speedster JoJo Natson, USU has some exciting options.

[Update: Sharp is suspended for the first two games, against Southern Utah and Utah. And Natson has been dismissed.]

Natson is one of the country’s more entertaining players. He weighs 160 pounds (and looks about 145) but boasts crazy speed, and Kevin McGiven used him in creative ways -- 79 targets, 50 carries -- in an attempt to get him the ball on the edge. Every touch is like a punt return (and he’s a spectacular punt returner). He isn’t built to handle more than eight to 10 touches per game, but it will be interesting to see how Heupel uses him.

It will also be interesting to see how receiver Brandon Swindall bounces back from an Achilles injury. The former three-star recruit was USU’s No. 4 receiver in 2013 but played in only two games last year. If he hasn’t bounced all the way back, then a young receiver like sophomore Braelon Roberts, redshirt freshman Tyler Fox, or incoming freshman Chad Artist might have to fill a role.

It’s hard to know what to think about the line. Keeton’s quick passing and elusiveness are conducive to good sack rates, but both Garretson and Myers got taken down a lot. Plus, USU’s power success rate and stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line) were dismal, and all-conference left tackle Kevin Whimpey is gone.

There’s experience; four of last year’s starters return, as does spot starter Austin Albrecht, and UCLA transfer Ben Wysocki and two JUCOs (Preston Brooksby, Jude Hockel) enter the mix. I assume the line won’t be worse, but it might need to be quite a bit better for the run game to click like Heupel wants. It didn’t this spring, though it was going up against USU’s stellar run defense.

Few defenses combine aggressiveness with big-play prevention like Utah State. In 2014, the Aggies attacked the run on standard downs and attacked the passer on passing downs.

Opponents had to go against the current, throwing 4 percent more than the national average on standard downs and rushing 3 percent more on passing downs, and it still didn’t work. USU had top-40 success rates and top-50 sack rates and stuff rates.

What made the Aggies so solid is that they did this while ranking in the top 10 in big-play prevention (IsoPPP+). They played big-play offenses (Boise State, Tennessee, Colorado State) and gave up few big plays.

New coordinator Kevin Clune didn’t have the benefit of USU’s talent when he served as Hawaii’s coordinator, and predictably, the aggressive tactics he had honed at USU didn’t pay off. But he should know what to do with what he’s got in Logan, and one assumes the Utah State defense will look familiar.

USU must replace its two best pass rushers, end B.J. Larsen and linebacker Zach Vigil. The Aggies have a strong defensive reputation, but we can’t assume that the level of production will remain the same each year.

Still, it’s hard to worry much. Tackle Travis Seefeldt is a keeper [Update: He’s unlikely to play in 2015 after a car accident], ends Siua Taufa and John Taylor produced when given the opportunity, JUCO transfer Edmund Faimalo [who is being “brought along slowly” after injuries in that same wreck] is an impressive specimen, and USU appears loaded at linebacker. Not only do three starters return, but so do all of last year’s backups, and some young three-star talent could work in.

Mostly, it’s hard to worry because there’s still a Vigil in uniform, and he’s pretty spectacular. Nick Vigil was second on the team with 17 tackles for loss, third with seven sacks, second in the country with five forced fumbles ... oh yeah, and he ran the ball at least eight times in three games and scored three touchdowns. He’s a football player: put him somewhere, and watch him make plays.

Vigil, LT Filiaga, and Torrey Green will make up one of the nation’s best linebacking corps, no matter who else starts there.

The glass is either half-full or half-empty.

On one hand, junior safety Devin Centers and three active, aggressive cornerbacks -- Jalen Davis, Daniel Gray, Bryant Hayes (combined: 10 tackles for loss, five sacks, two interceptions, 17 breakups) -- are back, as are most second stringers [Update: Hayes is suspended for the first two games, against Southern Utah and Utah]. Plus, three-star JUCO transfer Wesley Bailey and freshman Cameron Haney, one of the gems of the February signing class, are available.

On the other hand, two other key safeties (Frankie Sutera and Brian Suite, who combined for 7.5 tackles for loss, nine picks, and 11 breakups) are gone, as is corner Rashard Stewart. USU has to replace three of its top five tackers in the secondary a year after losing seven of 10. That’s a lot of churn, and if you haven’t recruited/developed well, it could cause major depth issues.

There is little reason to doubt USU’s defense, but a couple of injuries, especially at safety, could be costly.

JoJo Natson is one of the nation’s best punt returners, but USU ranked 94th in special teams. Place-kicking was all sorts of shaky -- 69 percent on field goals under 40 yards, 38 percent over 40 -- and while Jaron Bentrude was a solid punter, he’s gone. But the strangest part was how inefficient USU was in returning kickoffs. Are we sure Natson can’t handle those duties?

[Update: He can’t. USU has since dismissed him.]

Utah State has dealt with killer injuries and managed to lose to both Arkansas State and Colorado State last year despite outgaining each on a per-play basis. The Aggies are 19-9 under Matt Wells despite minimal help in the luck department.

So what happens if the breaks go the Aggies’ way for once? USU faces another impressive schedule, loaded with MWC Mountain opponents, BYU, and two Pac-12 foes. Boise State comes to Logan, and in theory virtually every game is winnable for a healthy USU.

Granted, there could be some growing pains associated with breaking in two new coordinators, but I think the transition should be reasonably easy. The philosophies of Heupel and Clune should work, and I expect another top-50 team.

Does the injury bug take this year off? Can USU send Keeton out on top of the Mountain West? Boise State is the conference’s safest bet, but Utah State might be the best backup option.