Perhaps the greatest treat the college football offseason has brought us is coaches yelling at each other over schedule strength.
Ranking the non-conference schedules of College Football Playoff contenders
Baylor and the SEC will have to impress otherwise, while several teams are looking to claim wins against a highly rated Notre Dame.
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We learned last year that South Carolina’s Steve Spurrier is an expert in schedule trash talk. This year, Auburn’s Gus Malzahn explained that he thinks the SEC is at a disadvantage when it comes to the College Football Playoff because of its punishing schedules.
The Playoff committee noted last year that non-conference scheduling is an important component to its selections, and it’s part of the reason Baylor missed out on the Playoff. The Bears are in a tough spot again this year, as their three-game non-conference schedule (SMU, Lamar, Rice) ranks second-to-last in the following.
Here are the top 30 teams in either Bill Connelly’s preseason ratings or Bovada’s championship odds (which accounts for the big-name, low-expectations teams like Texas being in here), ranked by non-conference SOS.
| Average S&P+ rank of non-con opponents | Team's own S&P+ rank | ||
| 1 | Stanford | 46 | 11 |
| 2 | Texas | 51.66666667 | 36 |
| 3 | Michigan State | 59 | 9 |
| 4 | Georgia Tech | 60 | 19 |
| 5 | USC | 67.66666667 | 13 |
| 6 | Boise State | 68.75 | 27 |
| 7 | Michigan | 69.25 | 35 |
| 8 | Clemson | 69.75 | 15 |
| 9 | Nebraska | 69.75 | 30 |
| 10 | Virginia Tech | 71.25 | 26 |
| 11 | UCLA | 71.33333333 | 7 |
| 12 | Ohio State | 71.75 | 2 |
| 13 | Miami | 76.75 | 28 |
| 14 | Georgia | 79.25 | 3 |
| 15 | Oklahoma | 79.33333333 | 10 |
| 16 | Florida | 81.25 | 29 |
| 17 | Oregon | 83 | 4 |
| 18 | Texas A&M | 83.75 | 22 |
| 19 | Arizona State | 85 | 24 |
| 20 | Alabama | 85.75 | 1 |
| 21 | Arkansas | 87.5 | 12 |
| 22 | Wisconsin | 89 | 25 |
| 23 | Florida State | 89.25 | 17 |
| 24 | Tennessee | 89.5 | 20 |
| 25 | Missouri | 89.75 | 23 |
| 26 | Auburn | 95.5 | 5 |
| 27 | TCU | 96 | 18 |
| 28 | Penn State | 97.25 | 37 |
| 29 | LSU | 97.75 | 8 |
| 30 | Kansas State | 100 | 33 |
| 31 | Mississippi State | 102.75 | 21 |
| 32 | Ole Miss | 104.25 | 6 |
| 33 | Baylor | 111.3333333 | 14 |
| 34 | Oklahoma State | 113.6666667 | 43 |
Fellow Big 12 contender TCU isn’t in a great position, either, as the Horned Frogs’ three non-conference opponents (Minnesota, Stephen F. Austin, SMU) have an average S&P+ rating of 96.
On the flip side, Stanford’s easiest non-conference game is a road opener at Northwestern, which ranks No. 62 in Bill’s ratings. The Cardinal also play Notre Dame and UCF, giving them a 12-game schedule of nothing but power-quality opponents.
The Irish’s non-obligated schedule (Notre Dame’s partnership with the ACC meant five automatic ACC opponents this year, but the Irish scheduled the other seven themselves) would rank as the second-toughest nationally, if treated as a non-conference schedule, despite numerous coaches complaining that Notre Dame should not be allowed in the Playoff unless it joins a conference. ND’s presence is clearly felt, however, as five of the top eight teams here get big boosts by playing the Irish (Stanford, Texas, GT, USC, Clemson).
SEC teams generally lagged in non-conference scheduling. Despite 11 SEC teams on the list of contenders, none ranked in the top 13 in strength of schedule (No. 14 Georgia plays Georgia Tech, Georgia Southern, ULM, and Southern). SEC fans would argue that compensates for tough in-conference scheduling. Various metrics give Alabama, Arkansas or Tennessee the country’s toughest full-season schedule.
* Here, all FCS opponents are treated as the country’s 129th-toughest opponent. Obviously, some FCS teams are better than some FBS teams. But FCS teams are scheduled to be automatic wins, and the College Football Playoff committee has never hinted at top FCS opponents counting as legit opponents.
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