The Badgers established their bona fides as the real smashmouth team in their contest against LSU a year ago, running for 268 yards at 6.9 per carry while holding the Tiger run game to 2.7. However, they were done in by a totally anemic passing attack that averaged only 2.1 yards per pass and gave up two interceptions.
Alabama and Wisconsin will run on each other, but the key to victory is in the air
The biggest game of college football’s opening Saturday (Sept. 5, 8 p.m. ET on ABC) centers on trench warfare. Still, keep your eyes on the skies.
Beating Playoff hopeful Alabama in Texas to open 2015 (Sept. 5, 8 p.m. ET on ABC) minus Heisman finalist running back Melvin Gordon would require passing considerably better, considering Nick Saban’s challenging defense.
Alabama draws a stiff test for its own offense as it replaces fellow Heisman finalist receiver Amari Cooper, quarterback Blake Sims, other skill contributors and several linemen from a powerful offense. Can a new QB work with an unproven receiving corps against a Wisconsin defense that ranked No. 4 in opponent completion percentage last year?
There’s no doubting either of these teams when it comes to running or playing stout defense in the trenches (games against Ohio State aside), but the winner will have to prove it can throw.
Badgering the Tide
Alabama has struggled at times since losing defensive backs coach Jeremy Pruitt to the coordinator job at Florida State, which has in turn struggled since losing him to Georgia. After four straight top-seven finishes in opponent passer rating, all with Pruitt on staff, Bama has ranked No. 26 and No. 30 in his absence, well behind Pruitt’s FSU and UGA defenses.
That’s interesting, in light of Saban’s own background as a DB coach. The Tide seem to finally be adjusting to the spread era in the SEC, with a nickel lineup that will be much lighter and quicker than previous groups.
| Cornerback | Tony Brown | 6'0, 195 |
| Nickel | Maurice Smith | 6'0, 199 |
| Strong safety | Eddie Jackson | 6'0, 194 |
| Free safety | Geno Smith | 6'0, 196 |
| Cornerback | Cyrus Jones | 5'10, 196 |
This will be Saban’s first Alabama secondary to not feature a DB over 200 pounds, barring some big summer weight gains. And they’ve replaced the old interior of Landon Collins, Jarrick Williams, and Nick Perry with converted corners, a move that will improve coverage in the middle of the field.
Against this quicker secondary, the Badgers have a cast of skill players in line with what Saban once built bigger defenses to stop. Wisconsin will again be at its best when using big formations, tight ends and fullbacks, with Corey Clement threatening the edge with jet sweeps.
To contest the Badgers’ physicality up front, the Tide will probably rely more on their base 3-4 rather than the 4-2-5 nickel that has become their main defense. Wisconsin will have to try to run against potential top-10 pick A’Shawn Robinson and company, but it’ll also need to keep the Tide safeties honest.
Returning Wisconsin head coach Paul Chryst’s opportunity to be the head man at Pittsburgh stemmed largely from his success with Badger QBs like Russell Wilson and Scott Tolzien. But the big question will be whether he has a deep passing threat who can help quarterback Joel Stave.
Former walk-on Alex Erickson is a dependable target, but the Badgers could be an entirely different offense if junior Robert Wheelwright puts things together. At 6'3, 207, he's an outside matchup problem, one Stave found for a spring game touchdown with a back shoulder fade:
If the Tide corners can’t contain Wheelwright, it will be a powerful omen for both teams’ seasons. Alabama would have to worry about its ability to control the better receivers waiting at Auburn and Texas A&M, while Wisconsin would likely seem capable to clear running lanes with the vertical pass against the strong defenses in the Big Ten West.
Air Bama
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The Badgers were comfortable with their defensive strategies until they got a wake-up call in the Big Ten Championship against the Buckeyes. They adjusted and rebounded against Auburn, but Alabama will present a different challenge.
Defensive coordinator Dave Aranda’s schemes for stopping the QB run game won’t be particularly relevant, since the Tide don’t have their QB read an unblocked defensive end as much as they have him read second-level defenders. Instead, the Badgers need to get numbers to stop the run without exposing their DBs to abuse by speedy Bama wideouts like spring game stars Robert Foster and ArDarius Stewart, veteran slot Chris Black and five-star freshman Calvin Ridley.
Questions they’ll have to answer include whether to play their 2-4-5 nickel package against Alabama’s three-receiver sets, and if they do, whether to play a third corner or third safety as the nickel.
One scheme Alabama OC Lane Kiffin will bring is a zone run paired with double slants:
The goal for Alabama is to keep the outside linebackers (here, the W and the N) from joining the box to stop the run. The QB can punish aggressive run fills with either the double slants (Y or Z) or the bubble screen (X).
The difficulty against Wisconsin? UW's front is good about reacting to blocks and spilling the ball outside. That means outside linebackers and DBs aren't conflicted when choosing to defend the run or pass.
By (1.) crashing an edge rusher into the B-gap, between the tackle and guard, (2.) having the nose tackle defend the gaps on both sides of the center and (3.) having the middle linebacker stack behind the nose tackle, they can clog the interior and force the running back outside.
Two-gap? B-gap?
If that happens, Wisconsin's nickel and will can stay in position to both defend runs and take away the slant and the screen. The alternative is worrying about 242-pound Derrick Henry blasting up the middle for a huge gain.
The difficulty for the Badgers is that their core group isn't the biggest bunch. From left to right on the diagram above:
| Strongside LB/DE | Joe Schobert | 6'2, 239 |
| Defensive end | Arthur Goldbert | 6'3, 296 |
| Nose tackle | Conor Sheehy | 6'4, 280 |
| Middle linebacker | Leon Jacobs | 6'2, 234 |
| Weakside LB/DE | Vince Biegel | 6'4, 241 |
This puts a lot on Schobert and Biegel being able to tangle with the big Alabama tackles without getting blown off the line. These Badgers were able to do this against Auburn in the bowl, but you have to wonder how this will go against preseason first team All-SEC Cameron Robinson.
If Alabama can't create separation and easy throws for its young passing game with run/pass options, it'll have to rely on beating Wisconsin's secondary straight up. That could be a challenge, as the Badgers return both starting corners and athletic deep safety Tanner McEvoy. At 6'6 with length and speed, McEvoy makes the middle a dangerous place to throw. The converted QB is quite good at covering mistakes and had four pass breakups in limited 2013 duty.
Potential Alabama starting quarterback Jacob Coker's greatest attribute is his arm strength, which could allow the Tide to pick on the diminutive Wisconsin corners. But they'll need receivers ready to go for that to work.
No doubt the Badgers and Tide will pound away at each other with the run, but it's hard to expect much fruit. Instead, expect the game to hinge on which passing game generates drive-making deep throws. This might come down to which Robert, Wisconsin's Wheelwright or Alabama's Foster, is ready to be a big-play receiver.
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