Arizona State scored a big touchdown with under five minutes remaining to take the lead on West Virginia in the Cactus Bowl. In all the excitement about the huge touchdown, it was hard to notice one of the worst coaching decisions of 2015:
Arizona State lost the Cactus Bowl after making about the worst PAT decision possible
Even Todd Graham couldn’t defend his decision.
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
It happened right there at the end. After scoring to take a 41-36 lead with five minutes left, Todd Graham told his team to kick an extra point to extend the lead to 42-36 instead of attempting a two-point conversion to make the score 43-36. Sure enough, in a game chock full of touchdowns, West Virginia scored on the ensuing drive, and their extra point made the score 43-42. Arizona State couldn’t score again, and the Sun Devils lost by a point after declining the opportunity to score an extra point.
There is no practical difference between being up five points and being up six points, unless you expect the opponent to make two field goals or score a touchdown and miss the extra point. With five minutes left, the opponent probably isn’t going to score two field goals, and teams convert most of their extra points. West Virginia was going to try to score a touchdown on their final drive, and yet Graham opted not to give his team a touchdown lead, even though missing wouldn’t have greatly harmed his team at all.
There is no 2-point conversion chart in the world that will recommend going for a PAT up five. The fact that Arizona State did it in a situation where there were at most two possessions left per team makes it even more baffling. When given the opportunity to explain himself, Graham couldn’t, admitting that the decision was a big mistake:
Full Todd Graham quote on the lack of a 2-point conversion. pic.twitter.com/QrWTP9S7XN
— Brad Denny (@BDenny29) January 3, 2016 I feel pretty confident calling this the worst PAT decision of 2015. Butch Jones took a lot of heat for not going for two up 26-14 against Florida in a game the Vols lost by one, which was definitely the wrong decision. But up 12 with 10 minutes left is a much lower-leverage situation than up six with five minutes left. Tennessee was still going to have plenty of shots at scoring, and Florida had to score two touchdowns, not one. That wasn't the case with Graham's call. Jones made a bad decision, Graham made a much worse decision.
Of course, there’s no guarantee that the Sun Devils would’ve won had they tried the two-point conversion and scored. College teams hit on two-point conversions less than 50 percent of the time, and a successful conversion would only have forced overtime. But in a situation where there were only two choices, Graham made the one that gave his team a significantly lower chance at winning the game.
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