The SEC’s had a predicament like this before.
If LSU-Florida isn’t played, it has a 20 percent chance of wrecking the SEC standings
Here are three scenarios, one much more likely than the other two.
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In 1972, Alabama led Auburn by 16 points with 10 minutes left. Auburn kicked a field goal, then blocked a punt and returned it 25 yards for a score. Alabama was later forced to punt again, and Auburn blocked another one and returned it for a score. David Langner scored both touchdowns, then sealed the game with an interception. Auburn 17, Alabama 16. It went down in Iron Bowl annals as Punt Bama Punt.
Both the Tide and Tigers finished conference play with one loss. So Auburn won the SEC via head-to-head tiebreaker, right?
Nope. The Tigers were 6-1 in conference play, and Bama was 7-1. Bama won by a half-game, per SEC rules. Win percentage comes before head-to-head.
College football is a frontier that has only recently been settled. It didn’t adopt a playoff for its highest level until 2014, 145 years after the game’s creation. Only a few decades ago, scheduling in certain conferences (most notably the SEC) was a bit of a free-for-all. Some teams would play six games, some seven, some maybe eight. Teams scheduled who they wanted, not who they were told to schedule.
In this way, the current controversy feels faintly familiar.
Because of Hurricane Matthew, last week’s LSU-Florida was postponed without a plan for rescheduling. If it is indeed canceled — and the odds are pretty decent that it will be — that means both teams will end up playing only seven league games to everyone else’s eight.
Naturally, many are already aghast at the potential scenarios. LSU beats Alabama but finishes only 6-1 to Bama’s 7-1! (Perhaps LSU wins via punt block, just for historical symmetry.) Florida finishes 6-1 but wins the East over 6-2 Tennessee (which finally beat the Gators head-to-head in September)! Mass hysteria! Cats and dogs living together!
If we have to prepare for the end of days, the dire dystopia of half-game leads, we should understand the percentages.
What are the odds of a division outcome that might bring society to its knees?
Armageddon Scenario No. 1: Florida wins the East at 6-1 over 6-2 Tennessee, despite losing to Tennessee
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This scenario is pretty easy to lay out.
Florida wins out in conference play, beating Missouri and South Carolina at home, Arkansas on the road, and Georgia in Jacksonville.
Meanwhile, Tennessee loses one more time, either to Alabama, Kentucky, or Missouri at home or South Carolina or Vanderbilt on the road.
- Florida’s win probability in these games, per S&P+: South Carolina 92%, Missouri 82%, vs. Georgia 77%, at Arkansas 63%.
- Tennessee’s win probability in its remaining games: Kentucky 90%, at Vanderbilt 89%, at South Carolina 83%, Missouri 77%, Alabama 26%.
There are nine relevant games here, which produces 512 different combinations of wins and losses. Of these 512, five give us exactly four Florida wins and four Tennessee wins.
- Florida wins out, Tennessee beats everybody but Bama: 13.9%
- Florida wins out, Tennessee beats everybody but Missouri: 1.5%
- Florida wins out, Tennessee beats everybody but South Carolina: 1.0%
- Florida wins out, Tennessee beats everybody but Vanderbilt: 0.6%
- Florida wins out, Tennessee beats everybody but Kentucky: 0.5%
ARMAGEDDON ODDS: 17.5%, approximately the current odds of Donald Trump winning the presidential election (speaking of Armageddon ...).
The Vols only have about a 1-in-4 chance of beating the Tide this weekend. Florida hosts Missouri with a 4-in5 chance of winning. If UF and UT both win on Saturday, Armageddon odds drop to about 16.9 percent. If UF wins and UT loses, odds rise to 22.8 percent.
Armageddon Scenario No. 2: LSU beats Alabama, but 7-1 Alabama wins the West ahead of 6-1 LSU
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The requirements of this scenario: LSU wins out, and Alabama loses only to LSU.
- LSU’s S&P+ win probability in remaining SEC games: at Arkansas 64%, Ole Miss 58%, at Texas A&M 48%, Alabama 33%.
- Alabama’s S&P+ win probability in remaining SEC games: Mississippi State 92%, Texas A&M 79%, Auburn 78%, at Tennessee 74%, at LSU 67%.
There are eight relevant games and 256 combinations of wins and losses in this scenario. Obviously only one produces the desired result.
ARMAGEDDON ODDS: 2.5%, approximately the odds of rolling snake eyes with two dice.
The biggest obstacle in this scenario is the SEC West. Even if LSU beats Alabama, the Tigers still have to win three other games in which they have between a 48 and 64 percent chance. Plus, Alabama has to avoid slipping up against Tennessee, Auburn, or Texas A&M.
Armageddon Scenario No. 3: LSU beats Texas A&M, but 7-1 Texas A&M wins the West ahead of 6-1 LSU
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The requirements: LSU wins out, and Texas A&M loses only to LSU. Since Auburn beat LSU and is tied in the standings with one loss, Gus Malzahn’s Tigers also have to lose again. That complicates things, but since Auburn still has trips to Alabama, Ole Miss, and Georgia, it doesn’t complicate things much.
- LSU’s S&P+ win probability in remaining SEC games: at Arkansas 64%, Ole Miss 58%, at Texas A&M 48%, Alabama 33%.
- Texas A&M’s win probability in remaining SEC games: at Mississippi State 66%, Ole Miss 54%, LSU 52%, at Alabama 21%
- Auburn’s win probability in remaining SEC games: Vanderbilt 95%, Arkansas 72%, at Georgia 72%, at Ole Miss 44%, at Alabama 22%.
So LSU must win four games, A&M must win exactly three, and Auburn must win no more than four. There are 12 relevant games in this scenario, which creates 8,192 combinations of wins and losses. Thirty-one of them give us the desired combination of results.
Because this requires both LSU and A&M to beat Alabama and win other difficult games, the odds are minuscule even before we get to the Auburn requirement. Add that caveat, and the odds go down even further.
ARMAGEDDON ODDS: 0.42%, approximately the current betting odds of the Chicago Bears winning the Super Bowl.
Throw those three scenarios together, and you get about 20 percent at the moment.
Nine Floridians died in Hurricane Matthew. The direness of the forecast, combined with Florida’s potential loss of home game revenue, should trump any conspiracy theories about the Gators postponing the game because they’re scared of losing and falling in the standings. (Yes, those theories exist.)
As Steven Godfrey wrote on Tuesday, the most realistic scenario for playing the game might require LSU to lose a home game, which would have terrible revenue effects for the city of Baton Rouge.
If the two schools cannot find acceptable arrangements, it would be a shame for both schools and for others. Tennessee would be indirectly impacted as well.
But as of now, there’s a less than 1-in-5 chance that a cancellation will end up impacting a divisional race.
And even if it does happen ... well ... it wouldn’t be the first time.
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