The country is down to 11 undefeated teams. The SEC’s remaining two will be whittled to one within two weeks, when Texas A&M travels to Alabama. The Big 12 and Big Ten will be down to only one each by selection Sunday. The ACC and Pac-12 are already down to only one each. Only Boise State and Western Michigan remain unbeaten among mid-majors.
Updated 2016 bowl projections, with clear paths to the College Football Playoff
Your weekly look at predictions for all 40 college football bowl games, freshened up after Week 6.
Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports
So right now, the Playoff picture looks suspiciously clear. The winners of the ACC, Big Ten, and SEC are likely in, and the Pac-12 looks like it has the inside track for the fourth spot. The Big 12 certainly isn’t out, though. And Boise’s strength of schedule has gotten a couple key boosts lately, so we might not want to count out the entire Group of 5 just because Houston lost.
That’s right now, though. This season’s true Madness Weekend has yet to strike. It’s always out there, circling.
For now, here’s how I think things line up. As always, these are picks for how every bowl game could look at the end of the season, with adjustments sure to come next weekend and all weekends thereafter. Have a nice Sunday!
| College Football Playoff | |||
| Fiesta Dec. 31, Glendale, AZ | Clemson | Michigan | Playoff rankings top 4 |
| Peach Dec. 31, Atlanta | Alabama | Washington | Playoff rankings top 4 |
| National Championship Jan. 9, Tampa | Alabama | Michigan | Fiesta winner vs. Peach winner |
Sticking with the same top four formula as last week: the obvious champions in three of the four favored conferences, with Michigan winning the weekly toss-up over Ohio State this time. I mean, UM did just give Rutgers the worst FBS loss of this millennium.
“But Rutgers is bad,” one might say, to which I’d reply, “OF THE MILLENNIUM.”
(In case you’re just joining us, I’ve basically been switching the Buckeyes and Wolverines every week. There’s no great argument for either team being clearly better or likelier to beat the other, but half the comment section will likely be about this anyway. That’s fine.)
| New Year's Six bowls | |||
| Cotton Jan. 2, Arlington, TX | Boise State | Baylor | At-large |
| Rose Jan. 2, Pasadena, CA | Ohio State | Utah | Big Ten 1 vs. Pac-12 1 |
| Sugar Jan. 2, New Orleans | Oklahoma | Texas A&M | Big 12 1 vs. SEC 1 |
| Orange Dec. 30, Miami | Louisville | Tennessee | ACC vs. Big Ten/SEC/ND |
These could all be pretty good on the field.
- Michigan or OSU would probably destroy Utah, but we said the same about the Utes against Bama a few years ago.
- Oklahoma-A&M would be a Big 12 reunion and a rematch of that time Johnny Manziel dunked on the Sooners.
- Louisville-Tennessee should probably happen more often anyway.
- Sure, I’ll take Boise over Houston, Navy, San Diego State, USF, and WMU right now. The number of potential bowl teams on the Broncos’ schedule has been slowly increasing, and that win over Washington State could soon be a win over a top-25 team, roughly on par with what Houston did against Oklahoma. Life’s pretty funny!
- Yeah, Baylor. I still figure the committee will try to avoid the Bears, but if they’re 11-1, that’s hard to do.
| Conference selection order, not based on standings | |||
| Outback Jan. 2, Tampa | Wisconsin | Florida | Big Ten 2-4 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| Citrus Dec. 31, Orlando | Penn State | Ole Miss | Big Ten 2-4/ACC vs. SEC 2 |
| TaxSlayer Dec. 31, Jacksonville | Florida State | Georgia | ACC 3-6/Big Ten 5-7 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| Music City Dec. 30, Nashville | Indiana | Arkansas | ACC 3-6/Big Ten 5-7 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| Liberty Dec. 30, Memphis | Oklahoma State | LSU | Big 12 5 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| Sun Dec. 30, El Paso, TX | Pitt | UCLA | ACC 3-6 vs. Pac-12 5 |
| Arizona Dec. 30, Tucson | Utah State | Georgia Southern | MWC vs. Sun Belt |
| Alamo Dec. 29, San Antonio | Texas | Colorado | Big 12 2 vs. Pac-12 2 |
| Belk Dec. 29, Charlotte | Virginia Tech | Missouri | ACC 3-6 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| Birmingham Dec. 29 | Houston | Arkansas State* | American vs. SEC 9 |
| Foster Farms Dec. 28, Santa Clara, CA | Iowa | USC | Big Ten 5-7 vs. Pac-12 4 |
| Pinstripe Dec. 28, New York City | North Carolina | Maryland | ACC 3-6 vs. Big Ten 5-7 |
| Russell Athletic Dec. 28, Orlando | Miami | West Virginia | ACC 2 vs. Big 12 3 |
| Texas Dec. 28, Houston | TCU | Auburn | Big 12 4 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| Cactus Dec. 27, Tempe, AZ | Texas Tech | Arizona State | Big 12 6 vs. Pac-12 7 |
| Heart of Dallas Dec. 27 | Minnesota | WKU | Big Ten vs. C-USA |
| Holiday Dec. 27, San Diego | Nebraska | Washington State | Big Ten 2-4 vs. Pac-12 3 |
| Military Dec. 27, Annapolis, MD | Wake Forest | USF | ACC vs. American |
| Independence Dec. 26, Shreveport, LA | Northwestern** | Syracuse** | ACC vs. SEC |
| St. Petersburg Dec. 26 | Georgia Tech | Cincinnati | ACC vs. American |
| Quick Lane Dec. 26, Detroit, MI | Akron* | Michigan State | ACC vs. Big Ten |
| Hawaii Dec. 24, Honolulu | MTSU | Hawaii | C-USA vs. MWC |
| Dollar General Dec. 23, Mobile, AL | WMU | South Alabama | MAC 1 vs. Sun Belt 2 |
| Armed Forces Dec. 23, Fort Worth, TX | Kansas State | Navy | Big 12 vs. Navy |
| Bahamas Dec. 23, Nassau | Tulsa | EMU | American vs. MAC |
| Potato Dec. 22, Boise, ID | CMU | Air Force | MAC 2 vs. MWC |
| Poinsettia Dec. 21, San Diego | BYU | San Diego State | BYU vs. MWC |
| Boca Raton Dec. 20 | Memphis | Southern Miss | American vs. C-USA |
| Miami Beach Dec. 19 | UConn | Ohio | American vs. MAC |
| Las Vegas Dec. 17 | Wyoming | Stanford | MWC 1 vs. Pac-12 6 |
| Camelia Dec. 17, Montgomery, AL | Toledo | Troy | MAC 3 vs. Sun Belt 3 |
| Cure Dec. 17, Orlando | Temple | UL Lafayette | American vs. Sun Belt |
| New Mexico Dec. 17, Albuquerque | UCF** | New Mexico | C-USA vs. MWC |
| New Orleans Dec. 17 | Appalachian State | LA Tech | Sun Belt 1 vs. C-USA |
* = filling another conference’s bid
** = bowl-eligible at 5-7 because of APR scores
Leaving us this week: Notre Dame.
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