4 predictions about 2016’s first College Football Playoff top 25 rankings

The Playoff committee unveils its first official rankings of the 2016 season Tuesday night around 7:15 p.m. ET.

In case you need a refresh: it works a little differently than the AP Poll. Teams don’t just slot up or down based on who lost. The whole board is reset each week. Members look at record vs. other ranked teams, record vs. .500-plus teams, and other metrics anew each week, along with The Eyeball Test and whatever else. Teams make jumps that would look random in an overnight poll, but in the context of reevaluating each team’s entire schedule, have usually made fair sense.

It’s also different from the BCS. There are no computers, other than the ones that serve committee members non-advanced (but still seemingly decent) stats. This is all done by human hand, though the actual process is no more transparent.

So here are some guesses on what we’ll all be talking about Wednesday morning. (Since we don’t have previous 2016 Playoff rankings to go by yet, I’m using the Massey Composite as a tool below. It’s a ranking that combines dozens of rankings into one.)

Washington will be No. 4. Either Alabama, Clemson, or Michigan will be No. 1, and no matter what fans of those teams might tell you, it’s easy to make a case for any of the three.

The Tigers have beaten the best list of teams so far (4-0 against Massey top-40 teams and 2-0 against the top 10), the Wolverines have shown the most dominance against a slightly underrated schedule (No. 1 in scoring defense and No. 3 in scoring offense, to keep it basic), and the Tide are probably second in both those regards.

The easy guess is probably Bama, even though the committee doesn’t fear breaking from the AP Poll and has snubbed (so to speak) undefeated defending champs two years in a row.

But Washington will be No. 4.

Here’s how we have it, FWIW:

Ohio State or Louisville at No. 5? Most would guess Louisville -- based on gaudy scores, a higher-ranked loss, and the AP Poll -- but OSU might have a more committee-friendly case right now.

Ohio State is 4-1 against Massey top-40 teams (wins against Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Northwestern, and Tulsa and a loss to Penn State, a team the committee might really like). Louisville’s 1-1 (a win against Florida State and a loss to Clemson), and you’d have to go down to No. 59 to add NC State to Louisville’s record. It’s also conceivable the committee won’t rank FSU this week, since it’s never ranked a three-loss team this early, which would make the Cardinals’ schedule look very weak.

Still, U of L has dunked on people, and that counts for a lot.

This counts as a prediction because I didn’t include Texas A&M for No. 5, you see.

Nebraska, Florida, LSU, Utah, and Big 12 fans will be unhappy. The Huskers’ only top-40 win: 4-4 Northwestern.

The Utes’: 5-3 USC.

The Gators and Tigers have seen their strength of schedules ruined by not playing each other yet (which doesn’t really matter, since they’ll still play before the end of the season).

And the Big 12 laid such a tremendous brick in its non-conference -- the entire league’s only top-40 win against somebody else: Oklahoma State over Pitt -- that I could see only one or none of its teams ranking in the top 15.

Penn State is No. 20 in the AP Poll. I say they’ll rank at least five spots better than that on Tuesday night. Their losses were against potential No. 1 Michigan and close on the road against top-40 Pitt*. They’re one of just six teams to have beaten a Massey top-10 team. And that win over 6-2 Minnesota counts for something. (The Gophers’ ability to rank right around No. 25 in the committee’s eyes and swing things via noble losses is a three-year running joke.)

PSU ranks No. 14 in Massey and No. 15 in S&P+, so the computers would happen to agree with the committee if PSU got a big bump.

We’ll see!

* Yes, I’m using Pitt as evidence both against the Big 12 and for Penn State. Head on a swivel.

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