Charlie Strong now must win out, make permanent changes, and then some to keep his job

Texas dropped its fifth game, 24-20, at home to West Virginia. Regardless of the circumstances, five losses at Texas can set about a cascade of coaching changes. Whether or not that should happen this year is about to be fiercely debated among the Longhorns’ power brokers.

This wasn’t a bad loss ...

Take the horns off the helmet, and this is a reasonable loss. West Virginia is now 8-1 and 5-1 in the league and just beat a team with a freshman quarterback and a defense relying on underclassmen. WVU jumped out to a 17-3 lead, but the Longhorns held the ‘Eers to just one more touchdown, five punts, and three interceptions. Add the asterisk that Texas did so without linebacker Malik Jefferson, its best defensive player, who left with a head injury.

WVU’s defense is 31st nationally in S&P+ (second best in the Big 12), but Shane Buechele (318 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) and D’Onta Foreman (167 yards, 4.8 per carry) were still effective. Texas’ offense was muted early and couldn’t create touchdowns in the red zone, but by no means was this the kind of system-wide failure seen before Strong hired OC Sterlin Gilbert.

... except any loss is potentially fatal.

This is where giving up 50 in a loss at Cal hurts the most: Strong has to win out vs. Kansas and TCU to get to 7-5, when 8-4 has been thought to be the floor for UT power brokers outside the football facility.

Pro-Strong UT fans could cheer against Houston, but that won’t do much good. Even when Tom Herman’s stock went nova after beating Oklahoma and before losing two AAC games, a potential opening at UT was never limited to a single candidate.

Any year is a buyer’s market for Texas, but the coaching market has been very still thus far. That means there’s a glut of rising talent, and most of it fits Texas nicely. Herman, North Carolina’s Larry Fedora, Cal’s Sonny Dykes, and even SMU’s Chad Morris (an A&M alumnus, no less) have major experience and connections in the state.

Strong has to rally the administration and make more staff concessions.

Make no mistake: Kansas and TCU are absolute must-wins for Strong, and style points will be welcomed by those in the administration who are behind him. After that, Texas would have a bowl game to bridge the gap until National Signing Day, when the current head coach has been dramatic and dominant.

That alone won’t be enough. Vance Bedford’s demotion from defensive coordinator will have to be permanent. Strong will likely have to make immediate assurances of a defensive change at the end of the regular season. An overhaul isn’t needed, but a scheme that’s more productive relative to Texas’ talent is mandatory, immediately.

There is support for Strong inside the administration. Recruiting matters greatly, and Strong has delivered. Off-field reputation matters, and Strong’s team has built a good reputation on campus. Texas can still win two more games than last season with a team that plays for its head coach.

The school wants to sell Strong to the outside influencers, but he’s failed to give them a marquee stretch as proof of concept. Notre Dame wasn’t that win, and now it won’t happen until 2017.