Florida-Florida State is one of college football’s greatest rivalries, and since 1990, might’ve been the nation’s best. One or both is nearly always ranked, often in the top 10, and the two have combined for six national titles since 1993.
Will Florida score more than 2 points against FSU this time?
The Gators’ offensive struggles continue, but at least they have an excellent defense.
It’s been a little lopsided over the last few years, though.
FSU’s won five of the last six and three in a row, and is favored in the 2016 meeting (Saturday at 8 ET, ABC) by a touchdown.
While UF in general appears to be rebuilding from the depths of the Will Muschamp era, this particular series has yet to close back up. Muschamp’s final game as a Gator was only a 24-19 loss to the Playoff-bound Noles, while last year, Jim McElwain’s wounded Gators mustered zero points on offense against FSU.
Florida’s only score in 2015’s 27-2 loss was this, when Cece Jefferson knocked the ball loose from Sean Maguire and a 15-second blooper ensued.
In a way, the 2 might’ve made it more embarrassing, since it drew more attention to the offense’s scorelessness than a more common-looking 0 would’ve. It also forced UF fans to say, “Um, actually, we scored two points,” whenever FSU fans claimed a shutout victory, and having to pipe up in order to claim two points is nothing anyone should ever have to endure.
Will the two-time SEC East champion Gators have any offense to offer this time?
The offense is trotting out a backup QB again, this time Purdue transfer Austin Appleby. It ranks No. 82 in points per game against FBS teams, a slight improvement over last year.
Also, FSU’s defense isn’t great, though it’s shut down non-elite offenses this year. (The problem: it’s played a bunch of really good offenses.)
Opponent-adjusted S&P+ ranks FSU’s defense No. 31 and Florida’s offense No. 88. (At least the Gators’ No. 5 defense can match up with FSU’s No. 5 offense.)
The Gators also had 36 percent of their yardage in last week’s win over LSU come on one play, a 98-yard pass with a single broken tackle, a new high for any team in a win this year.
But Alligator Army expects the Gators to be able to run, at least:
This Florida team can do a bit more than [last year’s].
It starts with the running game. Jordan Scarlett is averaging more than a yard per carry more than Taylor did last year, and Lamical Perine is averaging just under a yard per carry more, but they’re also both running behind a young line that is improving and gelling, and seemed to find an especially effective set of run blockers with the insertion of redshirt freshman center T.J. McCoy at LSU. Florida ran for a modest 3.6 yards per carry against LSU, but that was the second-most yards per carry the Tigers have conceded in 2016 — only Alabama earned more — and that number is significantly influenced by Austin Appleby losing 20 yards on six carries, as Scarlett and Perine combined for 146 yards on their 29 rushes, just more than five yards per carry.
Not one of Auburn’s top two and Alabama’s top three running backs cracked better than five yards per carry against LSU. (Quarterback Jalen Hurts did, but that had plenty to do with him scrambling, not Alabama’s line.)
Florida State’s defensive line is a very good one, especially against the pass, but it’s been occasionally susceptible to the run.
S&P+ picks FSU to win by a score of about 29-23. That would be several more UF points than two!
The Gators have an SEC Championship against Alabama to prepare for, but a (much more feasible) win here would have rewards of its own.
Other than just the rivalry stuff.
UF would be the favorite for the SEC’s Sugar Bowl bid, unless Auburn does something silly and manages to upset Alabama. A win over FSU and a competitive-ish showing against the Tide in Atlanta might do it and give the Gators their first major bowl since the 2012 Sugar.
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