Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) vs. Clemson Tigers (12-1)
December 31, 2016 ( 7:00 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Ohio State -3
S&P+ Projection: Ohio State (29.4-24.5)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Ohio State | Clemson | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 3 | 4 | ||
| Category | Ohio State offense | Clemson defense | Clemson offense | Ohio State defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.76 (52) | 4.43 (4) | 6.21 (26) | 4.03 (3) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 465.8 (29) | 317.5 (8) | 514.2 (9) | 275.4 (4) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 3.30 (7) | 1.36 (7) | 2.97 (18) | 1.08 (3) |
| Category | Ohio State offense | Clemson defense | Clemson offense | Ohio State defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 39.2 (12) | 16.1 (6) | 39.4 (11) | 13.1 (3) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 136.9 (2) | 110.9 (32) | 112.7 (33) | 122.8 (17) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 104.9 (54) | 132.2 (4) | 130.6 (8) | 132.0 (5) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 123.3 (6) | 106.3 (39) | 123.2 (7) | 129.5 (5) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 113.3 (38) | 159.8 (2) | 119.4 (22) | 123.2 (17) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 131.1 (10) | 155.7 (2) | 131.9 (7) | 113.1 (28) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 117.7 (28) | 120.4 (16) | 131.9 (2) | 146.8 (6) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 129.1 (13) | 125.1 (10) | 116.7 (25) | 160.6 (2) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 114.4 (21) | 103.6 (53) | 114.4 (20) | 144.1 (1) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Ohio State
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 1 defense vs. No. 86 offense)
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 20 defense vs. No. 77 offense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 1 offense vs. No. 58 defense)
- First Down S&P+ (No. 5 offense vs. No. 52 defense)
- Run Stuffs (No. 1 defense vs. No. 38 offense)
Clemson
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 15 defense vs. No. 107 offense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 4 offense vs. No. 92 defense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 4 defense vs. No. 79 offense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 1 offense vs. No. 75 defense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 7 defense vs. No. 77 offense)
Five Factors
| Category | Ohio State offense | Clemson defense | Clemson offense | Ohio State defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.17 (106) | 1.29 (81) | 1.21 (94) | 1.26 (68) |
| EFFICIENCY | 47.0% (20) | 35.2% (10) | 50.1% (8) | 34.7% (6) |
| FIELD POSITION | 33.3 (10) | 27.9 (34) | 32.7 (18) | 26.5 (10) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 5.0 (18) | 3.8 (20) | 4.9 (30) | 3.3 (4) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Ohio State 3.45 (40) Clemson 1.91 (54) |
ACTUAL Ohio State 16 (3) Clemson 0 (67) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Ohio State offense | Clemson offense |
| Adj. Pace | 7.1 (15) | 7.0 (16) |
| Plays per game | 80.8 (19) | 82.8 (10) |
| Possessions per game | 12.9 (70) | 13.5 (36) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 64.7% (38) | 51.3% (109) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 35.9% (46) | 24.8% (115) |
| % of solo tackles | 68.6% (108) | 71.2% (97) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Ohio State defense | Clemson defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 62.9% (40) | 53.7% (115) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 32.2% (86) | 29.4% (106) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 19.3% (15) | 21.3% (4) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 11.8% (17) | 13.3% (7) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 7.5% (30) | 7.9% (21) |
| PD to INC | 35.4% (43) | 35.2% (45) |
When Ohio State has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Ohio State Offense | Clemson Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 123.3 | 6 | 106.3 | 39 | Ohio State |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 54.8 | 10 | 43.3 | 31 | Ohio State |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.01 | 111 | 1.07 | 100 | Clemson |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.51 | 4 | 2.72 | 34 | Ohio State |
| SD Sack Rate | 7% | 107 | 7.5% | 15 | Clemson big |
Passing Downs
| Ohio State Offense | Clemson Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 113.3 | 38 | 159.8 | 2 | Clemson |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 30.0 | 74 | 20.8 | 2 | Clemson big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.82 | 47 | 1.77 | 30 | Clemson |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 4.02 | 10 | 2.26 | 6 | |
| PD Sack Rate | 8.5% | 77 | 13.3% | 7 | Clemson big |
When Clemson has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Clemson Offense | Ohio State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 123.2 | 7 | 129.5 | 5 | |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 54.8 | 8 | 38.6 | 3 | |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.12 | 65 | 1.19 | 48 | Ohio State |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.16 | 39 | 2.35 | 9 | Ohio State |
| SD Sack Rate | 3% | 24 | 3.9% | 90 | Clemson big |
Passing Downs
| Clemson Offense | Ohio State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 119.4 | 22 | 123.2 | 17 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 36.5 | 17 | 27.0 | 24 | |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.59 | 112 | 1.65 | 79 | Ohio State |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.63 | 30 | 1.02 | 1 | Ohio State |
| PD Sack Rate | 1.9% | 1 | 7% | 75 | Clemson big |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
