Washington Huskies (12-1) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (13-0)
December 31, 2016 ( 3:00 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Alabama -17
S&P+ Projection: Alabama (30.9-21.2)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Washington | Alabama | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 6 | 1 | ||
| Category | Washington offense | Alabama defense | Alabama offense | Washington defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 6.91 (7) | 3.87 (1) | 6.32 (20) | 4.45 (6) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 481.4 (22) | 253.9 (1) | 466.9 (28) | 319.2 (10) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 3.52 (4) | 0.89 (1) | 3.19 (11) | 1.37 (8) |
| Category | Washington offense | Alabama defense | Alabama offense | Washington defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 39.7 (10) | 7.5 (2) | 38.8 (16) | 18.2 (10) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 117.3 (19) | 191.8 (1) | 133.3 (4) | 129.7 (7) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 136.5 (3) | 157.4 (2) | 116.2 (27) | 127.6 (8) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 129.3 (2) | 160.1 (1) | 122.1 (11) | 127.8 (6) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 115.9 (33) | 181.3 (1) | 129.0 (10) | 134.8 (10) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 131.8 (8) | 197.2 (1) | 122.6 (25) | 133.7 (10) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 125.0 (9) | 156.1 (3) | 126.7 (8) | 128.0 (12) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 124.7 (16) | 184.1 (1) | 135.7 (5) | 119.1 (17) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 100.0 (74) | 126.0 (8) | 110.2 (32) | 107.4 (38) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Washington
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 31 defense vs. No. 85 offense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 5 defense vs. No. 44 offense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 5 defense vs. No. 34 offense)
- Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 8 defense vs. No. 28 offense)
- Passing S&P+ (No. 8 defense vs. No. 27 offense)
Alabama
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 13 defense vs. No. 110 offense)
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 4 defense vs. No. 85 offense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 12 defense vs. No. 84 offense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 7 defense vs. No. 74 offense)
- Field Position (No. 33 offense vs. No. 83 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | Washington offense | Alabama defense | Alabama offense | Washington defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.38 (21) | 1.26 (73) | 1.31 (46) | 1.10 (3) |
| EFFICIENCY | 52.9% (1) | 27.5% (1) | 47.9% (16) | 35.4% (12) |
| FIELD POSITION | 32.4 (20) | 27.7 (29) | 31.2 (33) | 29.9 (83) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 5.4 (5) | 3.0 (2) | 4.5 (68) | 3.5 (8) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Washington 10.58 (2) Alabama 6.24 (17) |
ACTUAL Washington 21 (1) Alabama 5 (31) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Washington offense | Alabama offense |
| Adj. Pace | -4.3 (103) | 0.4 (59) |
| Plays per game | 69.6 (102) | 73.8 (62) |
| Possessions per game | 12.6 (85) | 12.7 (84) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 54.5% (93) | 61.0% (64) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 34.3% (59) | 40.1% (26) |
| % of solo tackles | 75.6% (50) | 76.9% (40) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Washington defense | Alabama defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 57.4% (88) | 57.8% (84) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 29.1% (107) | 24.3% (125) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 17.9% (29) | 22.9% (2) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 9.1% (56) | 14.4% (4) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 8.6% (8) | 8.4% (13) |
| PD to INC | 32.4% (74) | 34.4% (53) |
When Washington has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Washington Offense | Alabama Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 129.3 | 2 | 160.1 | 1 | |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 58.8 | 1 | 31.6 | 1 | |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.28 | 12 | 1.03 | 96 | Washington big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.56 | 3 | 2.02 | 1 | |
| SD Sack Rate | 3.8% | 40 | 7% | 20 | Alabama |
Passing Downs
| Washington Offense | Alabama Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 115.9 | 33 | 181.3 | 1 | Alabama |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 36.4 | 18 | 21.2 | 3 | Alabama |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.85 | 37 | 1.30 | 3 | Alabama |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.73 | 109 | 2.06 | 4 | Alabama big |
| PD Sack Rate | 10.6% | 110 | 10.7% | 13 | Alabama big |
When Alabama has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Alabama Offense | Washington Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 122.1 | 11 | 127.8 | 6 | |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 53.4 | 12 | 38.7 | 5 | |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.12 | 66 | 1.17 | 28 | Washington |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.15 | 41 | 2.77 | 37 | |
| SD Sack Rate | 5.6% | 85 | 6.5% | 31 | Washington big |
Passing Downs
| Alabama Offense | Washington Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 129.0 | 10 | 134.8 | 10 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 34.2 | 33 | 28.5 | 36 | |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.05 | 12 | 1.46 | 1 | Washington |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.60 | 33 | 2.86 | 32 | |
| PD Sack Rate | 5.8% | 34 | 13.9% | 5 | Washington |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
