New Mexico Lobos (8-4) vs. UTSA Roadrunners (6-6)
December 17, 2016 ( 2:00 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: New Mexico -7
S&P+ Projection: New Mexico (36.5-29.2)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | New Mexico | UTSA | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 74 | 104 | ||
| Category | New Mexico offense | UTSA defense | UTSA offense | New Mexico defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 6.72 (10) | 5.52 (69) | 5.10 (98) | 6.20 (115) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 464.3 (30) | 403.8 (59) | 369.5 (99) | 404.6 (61) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 3.13 (12) | 2.19 (71) | 2.32 (59) | 2.63 (104) |
| Category | New Mexico offense | UTSA defense | UTSA offense | New Mexico defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 35.6 (28) | 33.0 (89) | 24.2 (98) | 38.6 (120) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 117.8 (18) | 104.2 (49) | 90.4 (108) | 99.2 (68) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 87.3 (105) | 96.6 (79) | 87.8 (101) | 84.9 (120) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 107.0 (47) | 101.8 (52) | 84.5 (123) | 93.7 (96) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 105.5 (62) | 97.2 (82) | 102.4 (69) | 79.3 (124) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 128.5 (19) | 99.6 (67) | 97.9 (84) | 80.6 (125) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 101.4 (70) | 90.4 (100) | 89.2 (110) | 84.0 (117) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 100.2 (68) | 98.2 (72) | 90.2 (106) | 96.9 (80) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 93.3 (99) | 118.5 (15) | 71.8 (128) | 96.2 (76) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
New Mexico
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 25 defense vs. No. 118 offense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 35 defense vs. No. 124 offense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 56 defense vs. No. 124 offense)
- Run Stuffs (No. 18 offense vs. No. 84 defense)
- Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 50 defense vs. No. 113 offense)
UTSA
- Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 57 defense vs. No. 121 offense)
- Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 65 offense vs. No. 124 defense)
- Field Position (No. 12 offense vs. No. 68 defense)
- Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 69 offense vs. No. 124 defense)
- Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 68 offense vs. No. 113 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | New Mexico offense | UTSA defense | UTSA offense | New Mexico defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.46 (3) | 1.30 (95) | 1.30 (52) | 1.40 (117) |
| EFFICIENCY | 45.1% (33) | 41.3% (52) | 40.6% (87) | 43.4% (79) |
| FIELD POSITION | 28.2 (98) | 30.0 (85) | 33.2 (12) | 29.1 (68) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 5.2 (11) | 4.4 (52) | 4.6 (63) | 5.4 (124) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: New Mexico 1.04 (63) UTSA 4.08 (35) |
ACTUAL New Mexico -2 (77) UTSA 4 (37) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | New Mexico offense | UTSA offense |
| Adj. Pace | -0.1 (65) | -1.6 (74) |
| Plays per game | 69.1 (106) | 72.4 (73) |
| Possessions per game | 12.1 (116) | 12.9 (70) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 84.6% (5) | 62.7% (48) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 55.1% (6) | 33.5% (68) |
| % of solo tackles | 70.6% (99) | 73.6% (66) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | New Mexico defense | UTSA defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 61.6% (51) | 57.7% (85) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 33.0% (77) | 35.5% (55) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 15.4% (70) | 16.1% (52) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 9.0% (57) | 8.7% (71) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 6.3% (62) | 7.4% (31) |
| PD to INC | 35.2% (46) | 29.3% (105) |
When New Mexico has the ball…
Standard Downs
| New Mexico Offense | UTSA Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 107.0 | 47 | 101.8 | 52 | |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 50.6 | 30 | 46.2 | 52 | New Mexico |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.31 | 5 | 1.24 | 83 | New Mexico big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.47 | 7 | 3.00 | 67 | New Mexico big |
| SD Sack Rate | 4.4% | 61 | 2.4% | 117 | New Mexico big |
Passing Downs
| New Mexico Offense | UTSA Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 105.5 | 62 | 97.2 | 82 | New Mexico |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 31.9 | 56 | 32.1 | 80 | New Mexico |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.01 | 14 | 1.88 | 71 | New Mexico big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.36 | 59 | 3.13 | 53 | |
| PD Sack Rate | 6% | 37 | 10.1% | 19 | UTSA |
When UTSA has the ball…
Standard Downs
| UTSA Offense | New Mexico Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 84.5 | 123 | 93.7 | 96 | New Mexico |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 44.9 | 98 | 47.3 | 58 | New Mexico |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.08 | 80 | 1.14 | 117 | UTSA |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.96 | 72 | 3.00 | 67 | |
| SD Sack Rate | 8% | 118 | 6.8% | 25 | New Mexico big |
Passing Downs
| UTSA Offense | New Mexico Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 102.4 | 69 | 79.3 | 124 | UTSA big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 32.3 | 49 | 34.6 | 107 | UTSA big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.85 | 35 | 1.74 | 105 | UTSA big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.21 | 75 | 2.69 | 24 | New Mexico big |
| PD Sack Rate | 14.1% | 124 | 8.9% | 35 | New Mexico big |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
