Appalachian State Mountaineers (9-3) vs. Toledo Rockets (9-3)
December 17, 2016 ( 5:30 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Toledo 0
S&P+ Projection: Appalachian State (30.5-30.2)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Appalachian State | Toledo | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 32 | 35 | ||
| Category | Appalachian State offense | Toledo defense | Toledo offense | Appalachian State defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.95 (40) | 5.56 (71) | 6.97 (6) | 4.77 (21) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 426.9 (57) | 387.6 (52) | 532.4 (4) | 331.1 (18) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.33 (58) | 2.01 (51) | 2.99 (17) | 1.38 (9) |
| Category | Appalachian State offense | Toledo defense | Toledo offense | Appalachian State defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 30.8 (56) | 29.9 (70) | 38.6 (18) | 22.1 (24) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 115.3 (23) | 96.6 (78) | 106.4 (48) | 106.3 (42) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 116.0 (29) | 100.5 (61) | 131.6 (7) | 121.0 (14) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 114.6 (22) | 97.6 (74) | 113.4 (28) | 109.1 (35) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 110.3 (45) | 98.8 (75) | 133.2 (8) | 124.4 (15) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 115.4 (35) | 103.3 (51) | 114.4 (37) | 111.9 (33) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 119.6 (24) | 120.1 (18) | 103.1 (63) | 109.4 (42) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 108.9 (46) | 94.3 (90) | 146.1 (1) | 112.5 (27) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 97.1 (88) | 82.1 (123) | 127.6 (4) | 116.0 (21) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Appalachian State
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 11 offense vs. No. 121 defense)
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 19 offense vs. No. 113 defense)
- Field Position (No. 37 defense vs. No. 121 offense)
- Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 30 offense vs. No. 105 defense)
- First Down S&P+ (No. 14 offense vs. No. 88 defense)
Toledo
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 27 offense vs. No. 103 defense)
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 6 offense vs. No. 74 defense)
- Run Stuffs (No. 11 offense vs. No. 71 defense)
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 47 defense vs. No. 96 offense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 75 defense vs. No. 103 offense)
Five Factors
| Category | Appalachian State offense | Toledo defense | Toledo offense | Appalachian State defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.29 (56) | 1.38 (115) | 1.32 (41) | 1.25 (67) |
| EFFICIENCY | 47.9% (15) | 38.8% (34) | 49.0% (9) | 36.6% (21) |
| FIELD POSITION | 30.8 (40) | 27.4 (25) | 27.0 (121) | 28.0 (37) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.5 (67) | 4.4 (64) | 5.3 (8) | 3.7 (16) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Appalachian State -0.55 (79) Toledo -0.95 (82) |
ACTUAL Appalachian State 8 (14) Toledo -4 (94) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Appalachian State offense | Toledo offense |
| Adj. Pace | -0.5 (67) | 1.7 (49) |
| Plays per game | 71.8 (80) | 76.3 (44) |
| Possessions per game | 12.5 (90) | 13.0 (64) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 65.9% (31) | 58.1% (77) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 48.2% (9) | 36.1% (44) |
| % of solo tackles | 70.2% (100) | 73.2% (74) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Appalachian State defense | Toledo defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 51.5% (120) | 59.0% (70) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 33.6% (67) | 33.3% (71) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 16.1% (54) | 14.9% (86) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 10.0% (47) | 8.7% (70) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 6.1% (72) | 6.1% (67) |
| PD to INC | 31.5% (83) | 27.4% (115) |
When Appalachian State has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Appalachian State Offense | Toledo Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 114.6 | 22 | 97.6 | 74 | Appalachian State big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 55.5 | 5 | 42.9 | 28 | Appalachian State |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.12 | 62 | 1.07 | 121 | Appalachian State big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.09 | 52 | 2.83 | 48 | |
| SD Sack Rate | 2.4% | 11 | 2.2% | 121 | Appalachian State big |
Passing Downs
| Appalachian State Offense | Toledo Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 110.3 | 45 | 98.8 | 75 | Appalachian State |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 28.5 | 95 | 31.2 | 66 | Toledo |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.10 | 6 | 1.95 | 33 | Appalachian State |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.38 | 53 | 3.64 | 107 | Appalachian State big |
| PD Sack Rate | 4% | 12 | 8.3% | 51 | Appalachian State |
When Toledo has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Toledo Offense | Appalachian State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 113.4 | 28 | 109.1 | 35 | |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 51.1 | 26 | 43.5 | 32 | |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.16 | 45 | 1.27 | 43 | |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.39 | 12 | 2.93 | 62 | Toledo |
| SD Sack Rate | 2.2% | 6 | 4.5% | 74 | Toledo big |
Passing Downs
| Toledo Offense | Appalachian State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 133.2 | 8 | 124.4 | 15 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 43.4 | 4 | 23.2 | 8 | |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.82 | 46 | 1.65 | 114 | Toledo big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.35 | 61 | 3.50 | 95 | Toledo |
| PD Sack Rate | 4.6% | 16 | 8.6% | 43 | Toledo |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
