BYU Cougars (8-4) vs. Wyoming Cowboys (8-5)
December 21, 2016 ( 9:00 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: BYU -9
S&P+ Projection: BYU (35.2-26.1)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | BYU | Wyoming | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 31 | 68 | ||
| Category | BYU offense | Wyoming defense | Wyoming offense | BYU defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.10 (101) | 6.21 (116) | 5.95 (39) | 5.40 (57) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 405.4 (68) | 452.1 (102) | 440.6 (49) | 367.3 (38) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.43 (50) | 2.52 (95) | 2.71 (30) | 1.62 (18) |
| Category | BYU offense | Wyoming defense | Wyoming offense | BYU defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 30.3 (60) | 35.2 (104) | 34.1 (39) | 23.0 (26) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 115.1 (26) | 96.4 (81) | 110.2 (37) | 123.7 (14) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 92.4 (91) | 99.0 (68) | 110.8 (41) | 95.7 (82) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 101.3 (66) | 92.2 (102) | 105.3 (52) | 118.7 (13) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 107.6 (53) | 103.2 (59) | 117.0 (28) | 87.9 (106) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 104.1 (64) | 102.1 (58) | 92.7 (95) | 98.5 (73) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 93.4 (100) | 87.8 (105) | 127.0 (7) | 114.9 (26) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 103.8 (53) | 95.4 (86) | 111.2 (39) | 122.3 (13) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 104.4 (57) | 102.7 (56) | 101.9 (66) | 106.5 (42) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
BYU
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 27 offense vs. No. 112 defense)
- Field Position (No. 15 offense vs. No. 77 defense)
- Rushing S&P+ (No. 26 offense vs. No. 81 defense)
- First Down S&P+ (No. 57 offense vs. No. 111 defense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 60 offense vs. No. 113 defense)
Wyoming
- Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 26 offense vs. No. 112 defense)
- Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 28 offense vs. No. 106 defense)
- Second Down S&P+ (No. 33 defense vs. No. 98 offense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 17 defense vs. No. 73 offense)
- Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 41 offense vs. No. 93 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | BYU offense | Wyoming defense | Wyoming offense | BYU defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.13 (123) | 1.46 (123) | 1.34 (33) | 1.24 (57) |
| EFFICIENCY | 44.9% (36) | 41.4% (53) | 43.7% (49) | 41.0% (50) |
| FIELD POSITION | 32.8 (15) | 29.6 (77) | 31.2 (32) | 25.7 (4) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.3 (84) | 4.9 (108) | 5.0 (19) | 3.9 (25) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: BYU 8.10 (11) Wyoming 6.12 (18) |
ACTUAL BYU 12 (5) Wyoming 3 (43) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | BYU offense | Wyoming offense |
| Adj. Pace | 4.3 (24) | 0.6 (58) |
| Plays per game | 79.5 (22) | 74.0 (59) |
| Possessions per game | 12.3 (99) | 13.7 (32) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 59.4% (71) | 68.1% (18) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 35.0% (54) | 39.6% (28) |
| % of solo tackles | 76.0% (49) | 62.5% (124) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | BYU defense | Wyoming defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 56.2% (100) | 62.4% (47) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 29.8% (102) | 31.7% (90) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 18.3% (24) | 15.3% (73) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 12.9% (9) | 9.2% (55) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 5.3% (99) | 6.0% (74) |
| PD to INC | 40.8% (4) | 28.2% (112) |
When BYU has the ball…
Standard Downs
| BYU Offense | Wyoming Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 101.3 | 66 | 92.2 | 102 | BYU |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 48.8 | 46 | 47.5 | 64 | BYU |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.03 | 107 | 0.97 | 124 | BYU |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.20 | 33 | 3.02 | 71 | BYU |
| SD Sack Rate | 4.9% | 68 | 5.6% | 48 | Wyoming |
Passing Downs
| BYU Offense | Wyoming Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 107.6 | 53 | 103.2 | 59 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 35.0 | 27 | 29.5 | 49 | BYU |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.48 | 124 | 2.00 | 96 | Wyoming |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 4.19 | 5 | 3.27 | 68 | BYU big |
| PD Sack Rate | 7.1% | 55 | 8.2% | 55 | |
When Wyoming has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Wyoming Offense | BYU Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 105.3 | 52 | 118.7 | 13 | BYU |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 48.6 | 53 | 44.2 | 37 | BYU |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.15 | 47 | 1.34 | 6 | BYU |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.89 | 83 | 2.87 | 53 | BYU |
| SD Sack Rate | 6.7% | 102 | 4.7% | 68 | BYU |
Passing Downs
| Wyoming Offense | BYU Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 117.0 | 28 | 87.9 | 106 | Wyoming big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 33.7 | 36 | 34.2 | 103 | Wyoming big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.89 | 27 | 1.83 | 120 | Wyoming big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 4.00 | 12 | 2.50 | 13 | |
| PD Sack Rate | 8% | 67 | 7% | 75 | |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
