Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (6-7) vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8-4)
December 24, 2016 ( 8:00 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Middle Tennessee
S&P+ Projection: Middle Tennessee (35.9-30.5)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Hawaii | Middle Tennessee | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 99 | 77 | ||
| Category | Hawaii offense | Middle Tennessee defense | Middle Tennessee offense | Hawaii defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.51 (68) | 5.25 (47) | 6.64 (11) | 5.98 (104) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 368.8 (100) | 444.1 (93) | 518.8 (7) | 450.3 (97) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.10 (78) | 2.37 (83) | 2.80 (22) | 3.06 (125) |
| Category | Hawaii offense | Middle Tennessee defense | Middle Tennessee offense | Hawaii defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 26.7 (84) | 36.4 (111) | 33.7 (42) | 36.0 (108) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 104.8 (58) | 88.0 (112) | 118.9 (16) | 93.0 (91) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 98.2 (72) | 97.0 (77) | 102.4 (61) | 92.8 (96) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 106.1 (49) | 92.4 (101) | 111.0 (34) | 90.6 (106) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 87.6 (108) | 102.8 (60) | 106.8 (56) | 102.6 (61) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 87.5 (106) | 97.7 (79) | 117.5 (31) | 87.2 (112) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 105.1 (60) | 95.4 (86) | 102.7 (66) | 98.0 (80) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 92.5 (97) | 91.6 (99) | 95.8 (85) | 91.7 (98) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 115.6 (18) | 89.3 (108) | 111.2 (29) | 87.4 (112) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Hawaii
- Redzone S&P+ (No. 24 offense vs. No. 103 defense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 29 offense vs. No. 101 defense)
- Run Stuffs (No. 56 offense vs. No. 125 defense)
- Rushing S&P+ (No. 58 offense vs. No. 112 defense)
- Standard Downs S&P+ (No. 49 offense vs. No. 101 defense)
Middle Tennessee
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 2 offense vs. No. 103 defense)
- Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 19 offense vs. No. 109 defense)
- Second Down S&P+ (No. 22 offense vs. No. 109 defense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 8 offense vs. No. 90 defense)
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 8 offense vs. No. 90 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | Hawaii offense | Middle Tennessee defense | Middle Tennessee offense | Hawaii defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.36 (27) | 1.10 (4) | 1.44 (9) | 1.25 (65) |
| EFFICIENCY | 42.1% (73) | 46.3% (112) | 46.5% (22) | 45.2% (101) |
| FIELD POSITION | 28.2 (99) | 33.5 (124) | 28.8 (90) | 31.1 (99) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 5.2 (14) | 4.9 (105) | 5.1 (15) | 4.9 (106) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Hawaii -12.59 (127) Middle Tennessee 8.84 (7) |
ACTUAL Hawaii -11 (121) Middle Tennessee 1 (56) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Hawaii offense | Middle Tennessee offense |
| Adj. Pace | -7.7 (120) | 1.8 (48) |
| Plays per game | 66.9 (118) | 78.1 (30) |
| Possessions per game | 12.6 (85) | 14.3 (8) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 54.3% (95) | 47.9% (117) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 30.6% (84) | 26.4% (110) |
| % of solo tackles | 84.1% (7) | 74.0% (61) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Hawaii defense | Middle Tennessee defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 70.4% (5) | 58.7% (75) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 40.7% (15) | 30.2% (100) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 13.5% (101) | 15.0% (78) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 8.0% (85) | 9.0% (59) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 5.4% (97) | 5.6% (90) |
| PD to INC | 27.0% (118) | 38.5% (14) |
When Hawaii has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Hawaii Offense | Middle Tennessee Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 106.1 | 49 | 92.4 | 101 | Hawaii big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 48.0 | 61 | 52.9 | 120 | Hawaii big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.27 | 16 | 1.15 | 18 | |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.09 | 52 | 3.55 | 126 | Hawaii big |
| SD Sack Rate | 6.1% | 95 | 4.1% | 82 | Middle Tennessee |
Passing Downs
| Hawaii Offense | Middle Tennessee Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 87.6 | 108 | 102.8 | 60 | Middle Tennessee |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 27.8 | 103 | 29.0 | 41 | Middle Tennessee big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.72 | 72 | 1.62 | 17 | Middle Tennessee big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.02 | 88 | 2.38 | 8 | Middle Tennessee big |
| PD Sack Rate | 5.6% | 29 | 5.8% | 101 | Hawaii big |
When Middle Tennessee has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Middle Tennessee Offense | Hawaii Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 111.0 | 34 | 90.6 | 106 | Middle Tennessee big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 51.4 | 22 | 50.6 | 103 | Middle Tennessee big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.30 | 6 | 1.00 | 90 | Middle Tennessee big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.49 | 6 | 3.20 | 99 | Middle Tennessee big |
| SD Sack Rate | 1.8% | 2 | 3.2% | 103 | Middle Tennessee big |
Passing Downs
| Middle Tennessee Offense | Hawaii Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 106.8 | 56 | 102.6 | 61 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 35.8 | 21 | 32.6 | 83 | Middle Tennessee big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.87 | 29 | 1.60 | 23 | |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.31 | 66 | 3.07 | 48 | Hawaii |
| PD Sack Rate | 3.9% | 11 | 9.2% | 31 | Middle Tennessee |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
