Army Black Knights (6-5) vs. North Texas Mean Green (5-7)
December 27, 2016 ( 12:00 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Army -10.5
S&P+ Projection: Army (29.9-22.4)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Army | North Texas | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 82 | 111 | ||
| Category | Army offense | North Texas defense | North Texas offense | Army defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.63 (61) | 5.72 (82) | 4.83 (116) | 4.59 (11) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 399.5 (72) | 434.7 (84) | 336.8 (117) | 274.7 (3) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.60 (39) | 2.49 (90) | 1.84 (105) | 1.64 (22) |
| Category | Army offense | North Texas defense | North Texas offense | Army defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 23.9 (101) | 33.3 (91) | 21.1 (115) | 26.5 (41) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 102.8 (64) | 89.7 (108) | 99.5 (81) | 99.0 (69) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 84.0 (112) | 101.6 (57) | 75.3 (125) | 94.2 (87) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 99.2 (77) | 95.4 (87) | 89.2 (108) | 90.2 (107) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 80.6 (121) | 98.8 (76) | 79.9 (123) | 108.8 (41) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 98.3 (82) | 98.4 (74) | 81.5 (114) | 88.7 (107) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 98.8 (79) | 103.0 (57) | 88.4 (112) | 113.4 (30) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 102.3 (61) | 87.2 (119) | 90.4 (104) | 78.7 (126) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 99.5 (77) | 115.5 (22) | 92.4 (100) | 116.2 (20) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Army
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 3 defense vs. No. 108 offense)
- Run Stuffs (No. 6 offense vs. No. 111 defense)
- Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 32 defense vs. No. 121 offense)
- Field Position (No. 23 offense vs. No. 108 defense)
- Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 41 defense vs. No. 123 offense)
North Texas
- Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 38 defense vs. No. 120 offense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 23 defense vs. No. 81 offense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 58 defense vs. No. 114 offense)
- Passing S&P+ (No. 57 defense vs. No. 112 offense)
- Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 71 defense vs. No. 124 offense)
Five Factors
| Category | Army offense | North Texas defense | North Texas offense | Army defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.14 (120) | 1.31 (100) | 1.20 (95) | 1.23 (48) |
| EFFICIENCY | 45.7% (26) | 42.8% (68) | 39.0% (106) | 38.4% (32) |
| FIELD POSITION | 32.2 (23) | 31.8 (108) | 28.9 (86) | 31.3 (102) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.7 (52) | 4.4 (54) | 4.6 (65) | 4.1 (33) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Army -5.66 (113) North Texas -4.46 (103) |
ACTUAL Army -3 (83) North Texas 2 (52) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Army offense | North Texas offense |
| Adj. Pace | 2.3 (41) | -5.8 (111) |
| Plays per game | 70.9 (91) | 69.7 (100) |
| Possessions per game | 11.5 (124) | 13.2 (51) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 91.6% (1) | 53.4% (99) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 71.3% (1) | 28.4% (102) |
| % of solo tackles | 71.1% (98) | 72.8% (78) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Army defense | North Texas defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 60.1% (64) | 66.5% (17) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 38.0% (30) | 33.6% (70) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 17.5% (33) | 15.5% (69) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 10.4% (41) | 7.3% (106) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 6.9% (39) | 8.1% (15) |
| PD to INC | 32.3% (76) | 29.4% (104) |
When Army has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Army Offense | North Texas Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 99.2 | 77 | 95.4 | 87 | |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 51.6 | 21 | 47.8 | 70 | Army |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.04 | 100 | 1.14 | 105 | |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.43 | 9 | 3.26 | 105 | Army big |
| SD Sack Rate | 2.9% | 20 | 6.6% | 28 | |
Passing Downs
| Army Offense | North Texas Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 80.6 | 121 | 98.8 | 76 | North Texas |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 29.9 | 76 | 32.4 | 81 | |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.58 | 116 | 1.51 | 38 | North Texas big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.90 | 98 | 2.83 | 30 | North Texas big |
| PD Sack Rate | 11.1% | 114 | 8.1% | 58 | North Texas big |
When North Texas has the ball…
Standard Downs
| North Texas Offense | Army Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 89.2 | 108 | 90.2 | 107 | |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 45.5 | 90 | 44.7 | 39 | Army big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.08 | 79 | 1.20 | 82 | |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.57 | 115 | 2.90 | 59 | Army big |
| SD Sack Rate | 7.1% | 108 | 10.4% | 3 | Army big |
Passing Downs
| North Texas Offense | Army Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 79.9 | 123 | 108.8 | 41 | Army big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 25.7 | 120 | 26.9 | 23 | Army big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.62 | 104 | 1.67 | 7 | Army big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.44 | 48 | 2.66 | 21 | Army |
| PD Sack Rate | 14.1% | 124 | 4.7% | 114 | Army |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
