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College football gets even less predictable during bowl season. Tuesday was proof.

For some of these games, the Vegas spreads might as well have been random numbers between one and 20.

32% of bowls decided far away from the spread

We all understand that bowl season is a bit more volatile than the regular season. Here’s one way of illustrating that.

Over the last six weeks of the regular season, about 18 percent of games were decided within 3.5 points of the spread, and about 25 percent were decided 21 points or further from it.

So far, through 19 bowls, six have been decided within 3.5 points (32 percent), and six have been decided by 21 points or more (also 32 percent). That happy middle ground barely exists.

Tuesday may have been the most extreme day yet.

Army was a 10.5-point favorite over North Texas and prevailed by seven in overtime. I’ve always thought it would be more fair for an overtime game to count as a tie for Vegas purposes, but I’m never going to win that fight. So this counted as a 3.5-point cover by UNT.

Then there was the flipside. Minnesota, more than a touchdown underdog in the Holiday Bowl, went up 17-6 late, holding on to win 17-12 and cover by 12 or so points. Wake Forest, a nearly two-touchdown Military Bowl underdog against Temple, bolted to a 31-7 second-quarter lead before holding on, 34-26. The Demon Deacons covered by three touchdowns.

And then there was Baylor. A team that had showed no signs of life since October took on Boise State in the Cactus Bowl as more than a touchdown underdog. They were up 31-6 before a late Boise touchdown made the 31-12 final slightly more respectable.

All football games are about motivation to some degree, but bowl season adds a break, coaching changes, and all sorts of other distractions to the mix. And the result is a lot of super-tight decisions ... and as many or more completely unexpected ones.

25 yards in a span of 30 Temple snaps

Military Bowl - Temple v Wake Forest
Thomas Brown had 2.5 tackles for loss against Temple.
Photo by Matt Hazlett/Getty Images

Wake Forest entered with the No. 28 defense, per Def. S&P+. The Deacs feasted on Temple’s explosive but inefficient offense early on.

The Owls’ first play was a 48-yard touchdown from Phillip Walker to Adonis Jennings. Their next five possessions, however, resulted in four punts (three three-and-outs), an interception, and just 30 yards in 25 snaps. Temple also muffed a punt.

To say the least, that did the Wake offense some favors. Their average starting field position was the Temple 47 for their five first-half scores. (And for good measure, Wake got one extra field goal late in the game on a drive that started at the Temple 15.) And while Wake’s John Wolford was as scattershot as you would expect to be against Temple’s ninth-ranked defense (his 22 pass attempts included three sacks and a pick), he completed at least one pass of 20-plus yards to six different receivers. And the run worked just enough to lean on it for a while.

Temple rebounded, going on a 19-0 run to cut the Wake lead to 31-26. But even then, the Wake defense was stiff, holding the Owls to field goal attempts. The result: the program’s first bowl win since 2008.

Army’s second winning season since 1996

Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl - Army v North Texas
Army’s Heart of Dallas Bowl win was its second bowl victory in 30 years.
Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images

The “first-half burst, second-half comeback” vibe persisted on Tuesday. The day began with the well-attended (39,117!) Heart of Dallas Bowl, a game decided by another late surge (and ... a different type of surge). A six-yard Andy Davidson touchdown gave Army a 24-7 lead midway through the second quarter. The Black Knights had scored four touchdowns in four possessions (they were at 24 because of a missed PAT and three failed two-point conversions) and forced a couple of punts to control the ball.

They would score only once more before the end of regulation.

This was Army’s second bowl win of the decade -- the first was an Armed Forces Bowl win in 2010 -- but only its second in 30 years. Jeff Monken’s initial rebuild is complete; after going 6-18 in his first two years at West Point, his squad surged to 8-5 this year.

Related

It was only Army’s second winning season since 1996, which points to Step 2: maintenance. Bob Sutton won 10 games in 1996, then 11 in the next three years. Rich Ellerson won seven games in 2010, then won eight in the next three seasons.

The 2016 Army squad was run by an aggressive, experienced linebacking corps, one which will have to replace exciting Andrew King and Jeremy Timpf. But if Alex Aukerman and a rebuilt set of LBs can maintain form, the offense should carry more weight and allow Army to hold serve in 2017.

4.4 yards per play for the fifth-best offense in the country

NCAA Football: Cactus Bowl-Boise State vs Baylor
Tyrone Hunt and Travon Blanchard celebrate a sack.
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

In 2014, Baylor wrapped up the season by throwing for 583 yards in the Cotton Bowl. In 2015, the Bears rushed for 645 in the Russell Athletic Bowl.

This time, they failed to clear that extreme bar. They “only” threw for 375. Zach Smith completed 28 of 39 passes (72 percent), and half of those completions went to KD Cannon, who caught 14 of 19 for 226 and two early scores. His 30- and 68-yard touchdowns paced a 14-3 Baylor start, and the Bears’ defense took it from there.

Boise State entered at fifth in Off. S&P+, but in the Broncos’ first 10 possessions, they managed two field goals, three turnovers, two turnovers on downs, and three three-and-outs. Quarterback Brett Rypien completed a respectable 32 of 51 (63 percent) but averaged only 9.5 yards per completion, took four sacks, and threw two picks. BSU managed only 4.4 yards per play, 3.8 if you filter out the Broncos’ late, garbage-time touchdown drive.

Six of Baylor’s top eight tacklers this season were juniors, and 5.5 of Baylor’s nine bowl tackles for loss were recorded by either freshmen or sophomores. So new head coach Matt Rhule and excellent new defensive coordinator Phil Snow will inherit not only an experienced unit, but one that got quite the boost of confidence to end the season.

4.4 yards per pass attempt for Luke Falk

NCAA Football: Holiday Bowl-Minnesota vs Washington State
Adekunle Ayinde all but clinched the Holiday Bowl with a late interception.
Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Baylor’s defensive magic act was probably only the second most impressive of Tuesday evening. Minnesota, with a depth chart severely depleted by suspension, allowed an early Holiday Bowl field goal to Washington State (No. 15 in Off. S&P+), then forced eight punts in nine possessions.

Wazzu was missing a couple of pieces of its own in the receiving corps, but it might not have mattered. Minnesota’s makeshift defense was that dominant. Quarterback Luke Falk averaged just 4.4 yards per pass attempt including sacks, and if Wazzu didn’t move the chains on first or second down, it probably wasn’t going to happen on third. The Cougs were 7-for-19 on third downs -- 3-for-3 on three short-yardage rushes and 4-for-16 on all others. Falk on third and fourth downs: 7-for-16 for 65 yards, a sack, and an interception.

This allowed the Gopher offense to get away with not doing a whole heck of a lot. Minnesota averaged just 4.6 yards per play and went 3-for-12 on third downs but dominated the field position battle and simply waited the Cougars out.

Minnesota created a lot of unnecessary turmoil for itself in December, then won in San Diego anyway.

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