Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4) vs. Washington State Cougars (8-4)
December 27, 2016 ( 7:00 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Washington State -7.5
S&P+ Projection: Washington State (29.9-29.4)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Minnesota | Washington State | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 37 | 33 | ||
| Category | Minnesota offense | Washington State defense | Washington State offense | Minnesota defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.04 (108) | 5.92 (100) | 6.07 (33) | 4.82 (25) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 361.1 (108) | 417.1 (70) | 499.3 (15) | 361.0 (28) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.29 (64) | 2.14 (63) | 3.25 (9) | 1.70 (28) |
| Category | Minnesota offense | Washington State defense | Washington State offense | Minnesota defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 28.3 (73) | 29.2 (63) | 39.0 (15) | 22.0 (23) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 92.3 (99) | 106.4 (41) | 108.7 (41) | 115.7 (23) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 103.7 (59) | 90.6 (104) | 116.7 (25) | 113.1 (26) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 101.8 (65) | 97.4 (76) | 113.0 (29) | 119.4 (11) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 83.5 (115) | 98.1 (80) | 117.1 (27) | 100.7 (66) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 96.3 (90) | 106.0 (44) | 113.5 (40) | 101.6 (59) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 105.7 (57) | 87.5 (109) | 123.1 (10) | 126.7 (14) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 90.1 (108) | 97.6 (76) | 109.7 (41) | 111.8 (28) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 100.6 (71) | 107.9 (36) | 120.8 (9) | 102.6 (60) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Minnesota
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 24 offense vs. No. 116 defense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 25 offense vs. No. 114 defense)
- Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 55 offense vs. No. 101 defense)
- Passing S&P+ (No. 59 offense vs. No. 104 defense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 53 offense vs. No. 97 defense)
Washington State
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 12 offense vs. No. 118 defense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 19 defense vs. No. 110 offense)
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 22 defense vs. No. 107 offense)
- Run Stuffs (No. 7 defense vs. No. 91 offense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 7 offense vs. No. 86 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | Minnesota offense | Washington State defense | Washington State offense | Minnesota defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.17 (112) | 1.30 (92) | 1.22 (87) | 1.22 (43) |
| EFFICIENCY | 42.0% (74) | 45.0% (97) | 47.7% (19) | 36.4% (19) |
| FIELD POSITION | 34.7 (3) | 28.1 (40) | 30.2 (52) | 28.6 (50) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.8 (39) | 4.6 (78) | 4.9 (27) | 4.2 (44) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Minnesota 6.12 (18) Washington State 2.84 (44) |
ACTUAL Minnesota 8 (14) Washington State 6 (26) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Minnesota offense | Washington State offense |
| Adj. Pace | -1.9 (78) | 4.4 (21) |
| Plays per game | 71.7 (82) | 82.3 (11) |
| Possessions per game | 13.3 (46) | 12.4 (94) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 69.0% (15) | 34.7% (128) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 41.7% (20) | 20.1% (124) |
| % of solo tackles | 69.3% (106) | 78.8% (29) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Minnesota defense | Washington State defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 56.7% (93) | 54.4% (113) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 28.8% (110) | 28.1% (115) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 18.5% (21) | 14.8% (89) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 12.1% (14) | 7.8% (96) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 6.4% (55) | 7.0% (36) |
| PD to INC | 25.5% (122) | 27.2% (117) |
When Minnesota has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Minnesota Offense | Washington State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 101.8 | 65 | 97.4 | 76 | Minnesota |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 49.4 | 39 | 50.1 | 97 | Minnesota big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.05 | 97 | 0.95 | 95 | |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.93 | 77 | 2.64 | 28 | Washington State |
| SD Sack Rate | 3% | 24 | 2.5% | 116 | Minnesota big |
Passing Downs
| Minnesota Offense | Washington State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 83.5 | 115 | 98.1 | 80 | Washington State |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 25.9 | 117 | 34.3 | 105 | Washington State |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.65 | 97 | 1.91 | 49 | Washington State |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.77 | 108 | 3.05 | 44 | Washington State big |
| PD Sack Rate | 6.9% | 53 | 6% | 97 | Minnesota |
When Washington State has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Washington State Offense | Minnesota Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 113.0 | 29 | 119.4 | 11 | Minnesota |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 52.9 | 14 | 41.5 | 16 | |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.11 | 69 | 1.17 | 2 | Minnesota big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.51 | 4 | 2.44 | 14 | |
| SD Sack Rate | 2.9% | 20 | 6.6% | 28 | |
Passing Downs
| Washington State Offense | Minnesota Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 117.1 | 27 | 100.7 | 66 | Washington State |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 35.3 | 25 | 27.7 | 28 | |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.64 | 101 | 1.69 | 109 | |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.46 | 44 | 2.59 | 19 | Minnesota |
| PD Sack Rate | 8.4% | 73 | 8.4% | 49 | Minnesota |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
